OK here's a weird idea for a VP: Vanguard's venerable Wellesley Income Fund, which celebrated its 50th year of stellar returns this past July. What prompted the thought was talking with a very knowledgeable investor friend who's long had 25% of his nest egg in W with the rest broadly-diversified in...

I need a little help. Play like TLT yields zero. Then play like overnight TLT needs to yeild 3%. Need a sharpie to tell me the upside and the downside. drank just one light beer! I get +34% upside and 45% downside. It's a call to get short duration? Would you mind sharing the brand of that beer? It...

When Gary Shilling says the bond bull market is over, then I'll believe it's over. I need a little help. Play like TLT yields zero. Then play like overnight TLT needs to yeild 3%. Need a sharpie to tell me the upside and the downside. drank just one light beer! I get +34% upside and 45% downside. I...

If LTTs are such a bad deal, why do they get snapped up? Kevin, your last link is interesting, and it basically says that bonds may not outperform cash, and historically they often don't. Well, I have cash on the other half of my barbell. It also says that we should expect an annualized return over...

If LTTs are such a bad deal, why do they get snapped up? Kevin, your last link is interesting, and it basically says that bonds may not outperform cash, and historically they often don't. Well, I have cash on the other half of my barbell. It also says that we should expect an annualized return over...

If LTTs are such a bad deal, why do they get snapped up? Kevin, your last link is interesting, and it basically says that bonds may not outperform cash, and historically they often don't. Well, I have cash on the other half of my barbell. It also says that we should expect an annualized return over...

That could be, Smith. It could be (either instead or also?) that LTTs are bounded on both sides for a long time: they can't go up because the government wouldn't want high interest payments, and they can't go down because zero is a boundary of some kind. If that's the case, and it's MediumTex's gam...

That could be, Smith. It could be (either instead or also?) that LTTs are bounded on both sides for a long time: they can't go up because the government wouldn't want high interest payments, and they can't go down because zero is a boundary of some kind. If that's the case, and it's MediumTex's gam...

That could be, Smith. It could be (either instead or also?) that LTTs are bounded on both sides for a long time: they can't go up because the government wouldn't want high interest payments, and they can't go down because zero is a boundary of some kind. If that's the case, and it's MediumTex's gam...

Ugly_Bird wrote: ↑Tue Aug 11, 2020 3:40 pm Congratulations Tyler. And thank you so much!

For sure I'm a Tyler fan. I don't do sport figures or movie stars. But Tyler is rock solid.

Resurrecting this thread to share this WaPo article and to suggest that perhaps instead of holding QQQ maybe just replace some or all of the SCV in the GB with TSM, since our COVID 19 world seems to be doing a fine job of turning the the total market into a landscape entirely dominated by megacap t...

Resurrecting this thread to share this WaPo article and to suggest that perhaps instead of holding QQQ maybe just replace some or all of the SCV in the GB with TSM, since our COVID 19 world seems to be doing a fine job of turning the the total market into a landscape entirely dominated by megacap t...

Just ran across this little gem. John Paulson just took position. No debt and cash on hand 500 million with safe properties in Canada. Pays a 1.3% divdend with a lot of leverage with the price of gold. Adjusting for recent merger looks like it is selling about 10 earnings. Stock has gone up about 6 ...

How about this as a Tyler Teck growth golden Portfolio: 33% VUG 17% SHY 25% TLT 25% GLD One year is 24.9% and two years is 14.9% and three years is 11.8%. Ten years is 9.6% and 15 years is 8.4%. All with a maximun drawdown of -19%. No promise going forward but looks better than Golden butterfly. If ...

It's been so long since people were suggesting to actively over-weight tech stocks. The problem with tech is: everybody is expecting tech stocks to do very well. So in order to get a better return than the general market, tech has to do even better than expected. If you really want large tech/growt...

Thanks! What is you weight for Nasdaq 100. Market is also thinking you are right on tech I'm at 15% TQQQ counterbalanced with 15% TMF. (3x leveraged Nasdaq 100 and 3x leveraged long treasuries) The rest split between gold and cash while we see where this roller coaster goes. Who knows? Basically a ...

What would the forum think about: 20% QQQ 20% SPY 20% TLT 20% SHY 20% Gold Returns look interesting. About +1.6% over 15 years and could not test for rebalancing. Might be winner if QQQ had a big correction. Wish there was a way to test over 50 years. That's pretty solid. With that much equity, I w...

Wish there was a way to test over 50 years. QQQ has about 60% overlap by market weight with VUG (large cap growth). So while it's not perfect, you might try using LCG as a substitute for QQQ in the Portfolio Charts tools. Thanks! VUG is interesting. Never looked at that being close to QQQ. Picks up...

It's basically a golden butterfly just with QQQ instead of SCV. My initial thought is that the correlation between QQQ and SPY is so high that I would probably choose one or the other at a full 40% as you're not really gaining as much diversity as you think by going halfsies. QQQ is a bit more vola...

What would the forum think about:

20% QQQ

20% SPY

20% TLT

20% SHY

20% Gold

Returns look interesting. About +1.6% over 15 years and could not test for rebalancing. Might be winner if QQQ had a big correction. Wish there was a way to test over 50 years.

When you consider "the price of a life" there isn't going to be one number that fits all. It matters how many years of lost life you're talking about. For most of the COVID victims it's a few years, at most. The average COVID victim is 79 years old. Life expectancy at that age is on the o...

The only economic condition that scares me is long term deflation, in part because it suggests a deeply dysfunctional underlying economy with problems that can take decades to fully address. Contrary to common perception, inflation in a reserve currency is not that big a deal--it can be easily tame...

Thank you to the authors of that article! I didn't know the exact mechanics, but I did have some idea that this is likely true: The problem with all the counterparties involved with GLD is that they don’t primarily deal with gold. These are the biggest banks in the world, and if any branch of these...

mathjak107 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 12, 2019 11:56 am Ha ha ha ...it looks like A total fall of more than 15k from my sale yesterday until this moment ... I show out of the 15 k drop I am down about 4K from this mornings buy , sparing an additional 11k fall.

Got lucky. Almost got to hold it for a while TLT.

except i only have the 275k to put in since the real estate sale in sept as i mentioned above ... the trading varied between 210-225k . plus it generated a lot in interest too as these trades were short and then it was swept to the money market ... so it was a great return overall . remember too go...