For December 2020, there is a change of investment in both Global Navigator and The Russell. Global Navigator exits its leverage holding SSO and goes foreign with ACWX. The Russell exits the Russell MidCap Growth, IWP, and enters the Russell MidCap Value, IWS. I will place my trades to execute late...

Hey, modeljc. Very much appreciate your thoughts. Whenever I see smart people think differently than I do, I wonder what I am missing. You seem to be recommending a complete exit from bonds and relying on cash and gold to counterweight equity / tech volatility. I’m intrigued. You’re still in the ga...

I'm at about 25% each of TMF and TQQQ. 45% physical gold and 5% cash. (Plus a separate cash cache for 3 years living expenses). Roughly, that looks like 1.5x leverage, but it feels more explosive than that. Probably because it is not as easy to "refill" TQQQ from physical gold when it cra...

Rising rates could be kryptonite at this particular point in time, yes. I hope the gold will mitigate the effects. Referring to another part of the thread, according to my notes, my Aha! moment was in 2004. That happens to match up with me realizing George Bush The Younger was a war criminal, and s...

I wouldn’t try to talk anyone into this portfolio. My personal expectation is to have the TQQQ position completely wiped out, probably a couple of times. It’s in the data. However, if the rest of the port does its job, not to worry. The most important thing is can one refill the tank? Let’s do some...

I wouldn’t try to talk anyone into this portfolio. My personal expectation is to have the TQQQ position completely wiped out, probably a couple of times. It’s in the data. However, if the rest of the port does its job, not to worry. The most important thing is can one refill the tank? Let’s do some...

I wouldn’t try to talk anyone into this portfolio. My personal expectation is to have the TQQQ position completely wiped out, probably a couple of times. It’s in the data. However, if the rest of the port does its job, not to worry. The most important thing is can one refill the tank? Let’s do some...

On performance...those numbers are good. Basically holding TQQQ since inception would have made anyone wealthy. However, one should model 2000-2002 with a simulated TQQQ...my mix tries to be a mix for the long haul. I not sure TQQQ would have made it past 2000-2002. For me I not sure you can take t...

The "official" mix is changing. VGSH 35%, UST 30%, TQQQ 25%, DGP 5%, VIXY 5% Decided to add some pure negative correlation to the mix and I could see no redeeming quality to holding TMF anymore when VIXY is guaranteed to be negatively correlated. Overall up this year ranging from 36-42% w...

The "official" mix is changing. VGSH 35%, UST 30%, TQQQ 25%, DGP 5%, VIXY 5% Decided to add some pure negative correlation to the mix and I could see no redeeming quality to holding TMF anymore when VIXY is guaranteed to be negatively correlated. Overall up this year ranging from 36-42% w...

People like schiff or Jim rogers have been talking about hyperinflation for almost a decade and a half now though with nothing like that even on the horizon. Will it arrive someday? Maybe. Japan has been trying to get inflation going for nearly 30 years now. There are a lot of disinflationary force...

People like schiff or Jim rogers have been talking about hyperinflation for almost a decade and a half now though with nothing like that even on the horizon. Will it arrive someday? Maybe. Japan has been trying to get inflation going for nearly 30 years now. There are a lot of disinflationary force...

The "official" mix is changing. VGSH 35%, UST 30%, TQQQ 25%, DGP 5%, VIXY 5% Decided to add some pure negative correlation to the mix and I could see no redeeming quality to holding TMF anymore when VIXY is guaranteed to be negatively correlated. Overall up this year ranging from 36-42% w...

Good question. The link shows "US Mkt Correlation" for TLT provides slightly more stock market crash protection. Other than that, I don't believe you're losing much. I'm not ready to go whole-hog into LTPZ, but I'm willing to go half-hog. I bought some LTPZ yesterday and its up +1.12% tod...

In the past 10 years, LT Treasuries (TLT) have performed very similarly to LT TIPS (LTPZ). See link below, only a ~1% difference in CAGR. https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2020&lastMonth=12&calendarAli...

this is why i said above we need to stop with the mental masturbation by reading what was or used to be , or how things may have back tested and concentrate on how things are reacting going forward . driving and looking in the rear view mirror may not be a great idea . What do you guys think the wo...

Great stuff as usual ahhrunforthehills! And yeah, we're well on our way with scenario #1 and arguably (according to Dalio anyway) with scenario #4 as well. I really do like the idea of having a rules-based approach and as has been said already in this thread that also applies just as much if not mo...

Kbg wrote: ↑Wed Sep 30, 2020 8:20 am Concur with whomever mentioned it earlier...this has been a high quality discussion with good perspectives all around. Thanks for everyone's well considered posts.

I agree! Good discussion for changing times!

I can see why Jonathan Clements just split his bond allocation into half short-term Treasuries half short-term TIPS. While I can see your point on short-term Treasuries, I can vividly recall couple of paragraphs from Craig's book that are related to TIPS, in essence (+cite): - "Among the risks...

An outstanding post on top of a bunch of other great ones of late ahrunforthehills. Thanks! Taken as a whole your comments and those of mathjak107 here reflect approaches that are deeply informed by Browne’s work while responding to realities he’d never encountered. I know some view any departure f...

Well at least historically both bonds and stocks become correlated and go down as interest rates are rising...so 50% of your PP is not going to be doing well. Gold, who knows. It may help, it may not help. So that leaves cash. All of this is also somewhat influenced by how interest rates go up...so...

I am one third inflation model Two thirds conventional. Also have lots of cash going in all the time Do these totals look about right? 25% Equities 17% Gold/Commodities 58% Fixed Income based off of: 25.33% Equities 12.67% Gold 4.33% Commodities 16.67% Ultra Short Bond Fund 11.33% 1-3 Year Treasury...

Okay modeljc. Here are the numbers I came up with. I'm open to any corrections. Assuming current interest rates of 1.4% and assuming 25 years to maturity... I calculate that: An interest rate drop to 0% increases the bond price by 35% An interest rate increase to 3% decreases the bond price by 28%....

Thanks very much for your thoughts! I don't blame folks who dislike active management but Wellington Group certainly has a deep bench and it's difficult to argue with the performance over many decades of either of the "W" funds (Wellington or Wellesley). I could totally see recommending s...

Here is a link on bloomberg that says it's equities or gold.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2 ... view-video