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by Pkg Man
Tue Aug 30, 2011 9:28 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Which bond fund should I put 25% in my 401K?
Replies: 4
Views: 4847

Re: Which bond fund should I put 25% in my 401K?

I was in the same situation, we just had a total bond fund.  If your company allows it, set up a 401K brokerage account.

If they do not, then try to put the long term bonds in an IRA.  This will avoid taxation on the interest each year.
by Pkg Man
Sun Aug 28, 2011 4:55 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Funds
Topic: Advice needed: Non-deductible IRA vs taxable brokerage account?
Replies: 6
Views: 7579

Re: Advice needed: Non-deductible IRA vs taxable brokerage account?

If you can't use your 401K for the treasury bonds, then a non-deductible IRA would be a better place to house them than a traditional since the interest wouldn't be taxed each year. 
by Pkg Man
Sun Aug 28, 2011 4:47 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Mixing Gold Coin Types, or Staying Consistent?
Replies: 18
Views: 7973

Re: Mixing Gold Coin Types, or Staying Consistent?

I'd buy what's on sale. Occasionally some coins are relatively cheaper compared to the normal premium over spot.
by Pkg Man
Thu Aug 18, 2011 5:23 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Expected returns: The myth
Replies: 13
Views: 6332

Re: Expected returns: The myth

I was looking for an way to compare the PP against a conventional stock-bond blend and saw the Vanguard Target Retirement 2020 fund (I have about 11 years until I can retire so I thought this would be close enough). I noticed that this fund is 65% equities That is pretty scary indeed. My company, w...
by Pkg Man
Wed Aug 17, 2011 7:38 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The shoe shine boy has entered the building
Replies: 5
Views: 3672

Re: The shoe shine boy has entered the building

After observing gold in a deflationary (sorta) recession, I guess I'd have to say that while it's number one factor would be troublesome inflation, negative real interest rates also seem to have a pretty solid effect on golds price.  Remember, gold isn't an industrial commodity (at least not at cur...
by Pkg Man
Wed Aug 17, 2011 6:49 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The shoe shine boy has entered the building
Replies: 5
Views: 3672

Re: The shoe shine boy has entered the building

I was listening to some of the old HB radio shows and he is very clear that gold only reacts strongly to high inflation.  Obviously we are not there, so does anyone have any thoughts on how to reconcile HB's thoughts on gold and inflation with the run up in price over the last few years?  If LT Trea...
by Pkg Man
Wed Aug 17, 2011 6:44 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Expected returns: The myth
Replies: 13
Views: 6332

Re: Expected returns: The myth

I was looking for an way to compare the PP against a conventional stock-bond blend and saw the Vanguard Target Retirement 2020 fund (I have about 11 years until I can retire so I thought this would be close enough).  I noticed that this fund is 65% equities -- seems way too high for someone with tha...
by Pkg Man
Mon Aug 15, 2011 8:06 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP or stocks only for wealthy?
Replies: 7
Views: 4381

Re: PP or stocks only for wealthy?

I agree with some of the previous posts -- the HB PP is, IMHO, safer than any single investment no matter what that investment is.
by Pkg Man
Sat Aug 13, 2011 12:00 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: English Unrest
Replies: 38
Views: 14932

Re: English Unrest

We don't have to speculate: We had it, with the Rodney King riots and Katrina.  Ref: Korean shop owners/L.A. and "Drunks with Guns" defending their neighborhoods, Katrina.  Lawlessness like the rioters will not spread to suburban neighborhoods in America (especially in Texas!) because the...
by Pkg Man
Thu Aug 11, 2011 6:05 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: Holding some foreign currencies?
Replies: 33
Views: 17272

Re: Holding some foreign currencies?

Brazilian savings accounts actually have an inflation adjustment that is in addition to the rate.  But I am not well-versed enough to know if it is equal to the rate of inflation or just a partial adjustment.

I am a fan of having some FX, but I don't count it as part of the PP cash piece.
by Pkg Man
Tue Aug 09, 2011 7:55 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: .55% 3 Year Rates - More I-bonds? And maybe some EE's?
Replies: 2
Views: 4974

Re: .55% 3 Year Rates - More I-bonds? And maybe some EE's?

Moda, good point regarding EE bonds.  I haven't considered them in the past since FDIC savings account rates were higher, and I Bonds included inflation protection.  Now that short treasuries yield near zero, and savings account rates are typically no more than 1%, maybe we should take another look...
by Pkg Man
Tue Aug 09, 2011 7:51 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Ready For PP, But Gold Is Holding Me Back
Replies: 12
Views: 5616

Re: Ready For PP, But Gold Is Holding Me Back

If you are sitting on a pile of cash I wouldn't let the recent run-up in the price of gold (or long term Treasurys) prevent me from jumping in.  If, on the other hand, you are going to go from stocks to a PP, then I personally would average in over time (others may have different opinions).  For exa...
by Pkg Man
Tue Aug 09, 2011 7:43 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Anyone Buying Platinum?
Replies: 18
Views: 10386

Re: Anyone Buying Platinum?

I can't speak to the speculative aspects of platinum, but I think the last five trading days has demonstrated quite effectively why gold is by far the best precious metal to have in the PP. 
by Pkg Man
Mon Aug 08, 2011 7:51 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Yesterday's New Contribution Tanking Today
Replies: 12
Views: 8310

Re: Yesterday's New Contribution Tanking Today

My recommendation for you is to put all new contributions into cash. *All* contributions. If this contribution into cash triggers a rebalancing event, then perform it as scheduled. You stated you are overweight in cash, but not whether this new $15k would push you past the 35% rebalancing band. By ...
by Pkg Man
Thu Aug 04, 2011 4:55 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Nauseous
Replies: 44
Views: 20274

Re: Nauseous

Here's the brighter side: we'll most likely see better equity valuations over the next 5 years (inflation adjusted).  PE10 was as high as 24 recently.  Today's shellacking took it down to 20.8.  The median rests around 16 and secular bottoms have been around 10.  We won't see prosperity again until...
by Pkg Man
Thu Aug 04, 2011 4:28 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: Cash ETF round up
Replies: 5
Views: 5658

Re: Cash ETF round up

Once you are up and running buying Tbills is pretty simple.  You can buy a mix of Tbills (one-year, six-months, 30-days) to create your own preferred average maturity, and have them automatically reinvest if you wish.  I can't speak for how easy or hard it is to sell them though.  I think a blend o...
by Pkg Man
Thu Aug 04, 2011 4:13 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Nauseous
Replies: 44
Views: 20274

Re: Nauseous

I admit, today is a terrible day, but the simulated PP I started on August 1st is still up 0.8%. I am not second guessing the PP, but rather questioning my timing in rebalancing the portfolio with new money. That is why I decided to just add to cash and rebalance once per year, or perhaps just wait...
by Pkg Man
Thu Aug 04, 2011 4:04 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: Fee for Cash
Replies: 1
Views: 2990

Fee for Cash

Saw this on Yahoo finance http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Dow-average-plunges-513-worst-apf-169769799.html;_ylt=Avq3xihLiZvznRTyxn1vKm.7YWsA;_ylu=X3oDMTE3MjM2cGN1BHBvcwMxBHNlYwNicmVha2luZ05ld3MEc2xrA3N0b2Nrc3NpbmthbQ--?x=0 Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist for Janney Montgomery Scott, an inve...
by Pkg Man
Wed Aug 03, 2011 8:52 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: Cash ETF round up
Replies: 5
Views: 5658

Re: Cash ETF round up

Thanks All I ended up mixing a few of them, including BIL and SHV, as I have an account at www.foliofn.com which has unlimited trades ($270 a year) and allows fractional share buying etc. I have never actually bought treasuries directly but sometimes the obvious answer is overlooked - thanks. Maybe...
by Pkg Man
Wed Aug 03, 2011 8:44 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Retiring a 60/40 portfolio
Replies: 18
Views: 10308

Re: Retiring a 60/40 portfolio

While anytime may be a good time to begin a PP, March of 2009 (for example) would not have been the ideal time to start one.  But of course only with hindsight can you know this. A quick look at PRPFX shows that March of 2009 would have been a near perfect time to buy it. Why are you saying March o...
by Pkg Man
Wed Aug 03, 2011 6:04 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Retiring a 60/40 portfolio
Replies: 18
Views: 10308

Re: Retiring a 60/40 portfolio

If already in cash I would have no qualms whatsoever about starting a PP now.  If, on the other hand, I was mostly in stocks I would be more hesitant.  While I freely admit that I can't predict the future, I would feel much better if it were stocks that were up double-digits while moving into other ...
by Pkg Man
Tue Aug 02, 2011 8:03 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: Holding some foreign currencies?
Replies: 33
Views: 17272

Re: Holding some foreign currencies?

I say do it with money you can afford to lose -- so take money from the VP, if you have one, to invest in FX.  I would not take it from the PP.
by Pkg Man
Tue Aug 02, 2011 8:01 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: When Will QE3 Be Announced?
Replies: 128
Views: 37445

Re: When Will QE3 Be Announced?

Usually the next tool to stimulate the economy (whether you think that's a good thing or bad thing) is fiscal stimulus. Who thinks we'll see much more of that any time soon? That's a joke right? Didn't we already do all of this back in 1937?  That was when Congress got it in their heads that what t...
by Pkg Man
Mon Aug 01, 2011 7:02 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: Cash ETF round up
Replies: 5
Views: 5658

Re: Cash ETF round up

Why not just buy T-bills from TreasuryDirect since outside the 401k?
by Pkg Man
Fri Jul 29, 2011 11:34 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: When Will QE3 Be Announced?
Replies: 128
Views: 37445

Re: When Will QE3 Be Announced?

I will continue to stick by my prediction that it won't happen.  Of course after today's abysmal GDP report, my prediction looks less certain, although I still think that the Fed will sit this one out.

But feel free to remind me how lousy my predictive abilities are if I'm proven wrong.