dualstow wrote:

clacy wrote: Gary "Aleppo" Johnson

Everybody's a conspiracy theorist. If anything, he damaged Hilary's total.
I like the nickname, though.

Regardless, he ended up a non factor, because let’s face it, he is a clown.

Neo-con? Me? Omg no. Much more of a Ron Paul guy. If it was Ron Paul vs Hillary (or fill in the blank Democratic Socialist), I would vote for him in a second. At the moment, the Libertarian movement is on life support and not politically viable. I'm about 90% convinced that in the last election, Ga...

Hopefully better spelling. Is this what the anti-Trump argument has come to? In a way, this is what the anti-Trump argument has been about all along. As you know, the election represented a clash between, on the one hand, those Whites and Asians who have tended to go to college (allied with Blacks,...

ochotona wrote:

clacy wrote:Trump freed North Korea and defeated Isis in his first 18 month. I’m excited to see what the next two years bring.

Hopefully better spelling.

Is this what the anti-Trump argument has come to?

Trump freed North Korea and defeated Isis in his first 18 month. I’m excited to see what the next two years bring.

So with the blow up I’m retooling what I was going to track/post on here. I’m thinking 20% st vol was a bit much. :-) I’m looking at something Golden Butterflyish. Selling vol will still be a part of it but looking at different forms. Could be just a switch to SVXY. Kbg, you probably covered this i...

My personal opinion is that gold is going to explode up soon. Of course timing is never easy and I'm talking over the next 5-7 years, I see gold out-performing stocks significantly. In my business, I see costs skyrocketing. -Construction costs on commercial projects are 20-25% higher than they were ...

Looks like XIV is trading again. It could be a good time to buy some additional shares at a 90% discount??

Did XIV liquidate?

I pulled up their data to see what kind of carnage ensued recently and it looks like it may have stopped trading!

Citizens dividends may actually work some day if the AI/robotic revolution fully takes form.

Early retirees who use welfare to fund their early retirement during prime working years, are just that..... welfare recipients. You have to have a pretty low amount of pride to do that IMHO.

For practicality's sake, I would probably have no more than $1m in physical gold and use ETF's for the rest. I would also have no problem replacing half of the "gold portion" with REIT's and/or NNN properties.

Would you advise him to put it all in the Permanent Portfolio? Just jump in? I sure would. I might tell him to tweak it slightly by increasing the cash amount, so maybe 20% Gold, 20% stocks 20% LTT and 40% cash. Real growth to his portfolio is pointless (in my humble opinion). As long as he can pac...

Wow I didn’t realize welfare was readily used by early retirees like that.

That is very sad.

Thanks kbg. I’ll be interested to read your post re backwardization/contango. Those topics are still a little fuzzy to me.


Although I do wonder if the leveraged ETF’s have backwardization and contango baked into their price as well. Do the the 2/3x ETF’s use futures as a way levering?

ochotona wrote:Maybe the loss of PRPFX is one of the many little bells heralding the market top.

PERM closed, but yeah it could be. PERM opened in 2012 I think, right after a huge decade for the PP.

dualstow wrote:How is PERM doing, btw? I never see threads on it anymore. Well, I guess I rarely see talk of PRPFX either. It’s mostly individual components.

I just looked at it on Yahoo Finance and apparently it closed recently

My best guess is that even though they have to cater to the multitudes who prefer ETFs these days, encouraging people to trade in and out of something like Wellesley would be very bad for the fund. And that's what ETFs do. They make it easier to trade. I hope they never do offer ETFs for those 3 fu...

Speaking of Vanguard,..... why no 60/40 ETF from Vanguard that mimics VBINX?

Or Wellesley, Wellington funds etc?

I'm assuming there is some reason that they haven't offered ETF versions of these popular funds.

My main issue with them is that they've been saying the crash is coming for 6+ years. Eventually they will be right but the old broken clock saying comes to mind. Economic doom and gloom is non-stop in some circles, but unless they have a crystal ball, the global economy is far too complex for peopl...

Based on what you've said, my thought process would be the same, unless there was still significant upside in your company's valuation.

I haven't watched many movies in the past 10-15 years, as you'll be able to tell by my list. I'm a product of the 90's. Here are a few in no particular order: Bottle Rocket (comedy) http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0115734/ The Stoned Age (comedy) http://www.imdb.com/find?ref_=nv_sr_fn&q=the+stoned+a...

I would take the deduction (I do currently as well). It's no longer a "red flag" item within the IRS per my CPA. It may have been reasonable to red flag that deduction at one time, but with the availability of technology and the sheer amount of people working from home, it's no longer an i...

Not unexpected. The CIA was heavily involved in Central/South America in the 80's and a huge cocaine epidemic ensues. Now that we've been operating Afghanistan, oddly enough we have a huge opioid epidemic. The CIA is the largest drug operator in the world for anyone that hasn't done research into it.

Funny to read all the volatility posts on the board...and here we are in our 3x rocket and the whole thing was a big...meah. Can you clarify your point? If you are saying that all the panic about the vol decay from leveraged ETF's was overblown, I would agree. Certainly there are some horribly desi...