I just read barrette's post on January 23 where he wonders if I will forgive.  I'm just looking to survive and hope we don't end up like 25 years of Japan.  Much great insight from all of you. Reflecting on 2015 and the markets, when I read Craig R's book, I was reminded that infrequent rebalancing ...

The guys running Berkshire are getting very old.  An article on cbsmarketwatch.com said their new hires did not beat the s & p 500 in 2014.

The no fees idea is nice but VTI may be the better bet.

I do not have the numbers on the bonds or their rates.  Rates might go negative!?!?  Who would have imagined rates this low on LTTs.

If I can can answer any further questions, please ask.

Greetings, All,  An exercise in deflation (futility, if you wish). I recently calculated a deflation scenario where VTI and SGOL fall over 3 years, TLT rises, and SHY increases incrementally, all based on late day 1/20/15 prices. The following is conjecture.  Whereas the DOW fell 90% by 1932, I thin...

D1984, Thanks 4 your quick and courteous response. As this crew refuses to wake up on Christmas morning, I don't know if I have any TLT SGOL VTI or SHY waiting for me under the tree.  But I have time to respond. I figure this bunch has another 20 minutes- 9:30 EST.  TWAS easier when they were under ...

Hi Folks, My first Christmas with the HBPP group!  And a great bunch to know. Having been viewing discussions for 4 months now, I realize you are excellent teachers- and dispensers of knowledge and wisdom. Now, a few definitions, please. I believe Tyler referred to IMHO: help! At the top I Shrugged ...

Well put, barrett. I believe both Rogers and Dent enjoyed the ride to the top with gold. Rogers has said in Youtube videos that he will not ever sell his gold: it will be left to his kids.  Dent is probably long in Treasuries, and maybe a fancy etf, UUPT, a 3x hyper- dollar fund.  If he is in UUPT, ...

I mentioned in my deflation rambling that investor Jim Rogers likes gold again at $950, approximately half the price of its 2011 high.  Rogers suggests that is a proper retracing of the big increase.  Harry Dent, the deflation guy, said watch for gold to drop to $600 with an ultimate landing at $250...

Thanks, craigr.  Your kind attention is appreciated.

POINT #1: I have mentioned possible future deflation in other threads.  I said that TLT is up over several years, DXY, the US Dollar index is up 20% over 3.4 years, GLD is down 35% since September, 2011, and general commodities, led recently by oil, are down. Is this the start of a long run trend in...

barrett,

Thanks.  Nice to see it is up year to date.  myhasty calculations are in the ballpark.

Am I correct that PP is up 5+% YTD?

buddtholomew,

Point taken.

TennPaGa, When I look at GLD, TLT, DXY (the Dollar index), oil and other falling prices on commodities, I wonder about a deflation ahead. So, 5% or 10% in TLT may be an option for a VP.  I bump heads with Harry Browne here as I can't really lose 10% of the stash but in one year there might be a bett...

rickb,

Thanks for the thought on not dipping into the PP to help VP.  I would not do that.  It debases the whole philosophy.

Thanks

Barrett,

Rebalancing more often in a tax deferred account does clarify that.

Thanks.

Barrett,

You kind people have convinced me of the benefits of the 25/25/25/25 PP.  I am wondering as to a % of total assets to put towards long-term Treasuries in a VP.

With respect for Libertarian666's thoughts, the reason I mention deflation, and loosely follow Harry Dent and company, is that DXY, the US$ ETF is up 20% since May,2011, TLT is up about the same and GLD is down approximately 36% since the gold high.  With commodities down, including oil, this has th...

TennPaGa seems to have it correct about driving oneself crazy.  Aren't we supposed to be check the PP only occasionally?

After I read Craigr's book, I arranged a PP on paper and it appears to be up 5+% since !/2/14 with no tax bill yet.

I believe Craigr mentioned the problem of paying taxes if the rebalance bands are tighter.  As I, a newcomer, have been counseled, the system has been around a long time.  The bands at 35/15 help us avoid capital gains taxes.  As I have thought while reading Craigr's book, seeing one of the 4 catego...

Thank you, Sophie.

Dualstow,

THat was a lovely comment.

Thanks.  And is there much knowledge and wisdom in the VP forum?  To restate the question, do the people in the VP forum make money in the long term?  They speak with authority.

Hey Mark Leavy,

I just reread your comments.  Thanks.  As I said, there is wisdom in this forum!

I believe Buddtholomew  gets my thanks for the VP idea. If I profess a bias toward 30 year Treasuries in a year, maybe you good people could shower me with skepticism.

Thanks to all!

Max Brooks is the author to consult on zombies. I was reading HB in the early 1980s and did read craig's book.  I have the advantage of waiting as retirement is a year from now.  So if Germany and China lead us to the Japan experience, that could be noteworthy.  Or, as Barrett said, 25/25/25/25 is t...