Search found 409 matches
- Sat Jul 09, 2016 2:13 pm
- Forum: Bonds
- Topic: can the 30 year bond stay at this (high) level
- Replies: 27
- Views: 16065
Re: can the 30 year bond stay at this (high) level
I think in the short term long bonds are over-extended. On a Keltner Channel chart, they are tagging the 3 standard deviation line to the upside on a daily chart. I expect TLO or TLT to come down by 4%. Intermediate to long term, who knows? This is why I completely gave up on market timing. Risk/re...
- Sat Jul 09, 2016 1:35 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Oh Come On
- Replies: 109
- Views: 44292
Re: Oh Come On
So what is the half year overall perfomance for the vanilla U.S. PP for 2016? And ytd? All using start date 1/4/16. For fun, I included the 6/27/16 date as that was the bottom of the 3-day Brexit "correction". VTI/GLD/TLT/SHY: 6/27/16: 11.2% 6/30/16: 12.5% 7/8/16: 15.2% Replacing VTI with...
- Fri Jul 08, 2016 3:05 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Oh Come On
- Replies: 109
- Views: 44292
Re: Oh Come On
Sorry to derail the conversation and return to the thread topic..."oh Come On" Imagine being a nubile PP investor and putting all your eggs into the basket on 1-1-2016. You'd vote for HB in the next election. Pretty darn remarkable what continues to transpire. Stocks, bonds, gold, REITs.....
- Fri Jul 08, 2016 12:49 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Why should PP continue going up?
- Replies: 89
- Views: 39039
Re: Why should PP continue going up?
Isn't this part of what makes bitcoins so risky? What's the barrier to entry here for newcomers besides branding?Sam Brazil wrote:and there are even certain alt coins being developed with even better built-in anonymity
- Thu Jul 07, 2016 10:40 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Oh Come On
- Replies: 109
- Views: 44292
Re: Oh Come On
Seriously folks, counterparty risk for the likely size of our accounts is over done on this board. I find it particularly humorous when I read posts of folks talking about who from and where to buy gold. Id be way more concerned waiting for my gold to arrive than buying a Deutsche Bank ETF. Agreed....
- Sat Jul 02, 2016 9:30 am
- Forum: Bonds
- Topic: Maximum Bond Upside
- Replies: 278
- Views: 164613
Re: Maximum Bond Upside
EDV has phantom income taxation issues also. Thinking ahead, we should just assume rates are going to go to 0%. In that case, I don't think we should be buying past 20-year T-Bonds right now. I don't know how bond funds will be reflected, but it seems like it would favor VUSTX at 16.9 duration vs T...
- Fri Jul 01, 2016 2:59 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Oh Come On
- Replies: 109
- Views: 44292
Re: Oh Come On
My gut says shorting the long bond wouldn't be a terribly risky short-term trade right now. I agree, but then look at yields across the world. U.S. LTT's sure look attractive from that perspective. The question is...are treasuries driving gold higher or is rising gold due to inflation on the horizo...
- Fri Jul 01, 2016 2:45 pm
- Forum: Bonds
- Topic: Maximum Bond Upside
- Replies: 278
- Views: 164613
Re: Maximum Bond Upside
One thing I was thinking of doing is replacing a portion of TLT for EDV and placing the difference in cash. That way I have less absolute $ in LTT's but still have the duration to hedge losses in equities. It's a good plan I think. Only problem is that EDV has lousy liquidity and you'll probably pa...
- Fri Jul 01, 2016 2:43 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Oh Come On
- Replies: 109
- Views: 44292
Re: Oh Come On
My gut says shorting the long bond wouldn't be a terribly risky short-term trade right now.
- Wed Jun 29, 2016 3:51 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: NEW FORUM HOST
- Replies: 67
- Views: 31256
Re: NEW FORUM HOST
Definitely odd. These usually propagate almost instantly when making a DNS change. But perhaps this issue is more complex.MangoMan wrote:Still not propagating....
Either way, it looks like the technical curse plaguing this place jumped from the host to the registrar. It's uncanny.
- Sat Jun 25, 2016 9:24 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Brexit
- Replies: 38
- Views: 19453
Re: Brexit
My personal 70/30 allocation lost a total of 1.67% over the same time period. This includes a 45% allocation to INT, INT SC and Emerging Markets. PP volatilty was lower and I felt protected holding the portfolio. Here in the Dominican Republic, French and Spanish investors were glued to their smart...
- Thu Jun 23, 2016 1:53 pm
- Forum: Other Discussions
- Topic: Temporary Blindness Tied to Smartphone Use in Dark
- Replies: 5
- Views: 3027
Re: Temporary Blindness Tied to Smartphone Use in Dark
You now have to order the test to exclude the rare possibility, no matter how unlikely. That is how medicine is practiced (at least in the US). Is this for fear of malpractice suits? Because surely some doctor in the chain had to recognize what was going on here. Do we now have a front line of doct...
- Thu Jun 23, 2016 9:31 am
- Forum: Other Discussions
- Topic: Temporary Blindness Tied to Smartphone Use in Dark
- Replies: 5
- Views: 3027
Temporary Blindness Tied to Smartphone Use in Dark
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/E/EU_MED_SMARTPHONE_BLINDNESS?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2016-06-22-17-26-38 In Thursday's New England Journal of Medicine, doctors detailed the cases of the two women, ages 22 and 40, who experienced "transient smartphone blind...
- Thu Jun 09, 2016 2:12 pm
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: PP with 2x leverage (no 2x funds)
- Replies: 26
- Views: 16457
Re: PP with 2x leverage (no 2x funds)
Cheap for now, but it won't be cheap once/if interest rates rise. But foregoing the obvious, the PP can easily experience a 20-30% drawdown which would leave you down 40-60% + margin interest. I can't recall the historical max intraday drawdown, but it may be even higher than that. So in a hypotheti...
- Fri Apr 15, 2016 9:32 am
- Forum: Other Discussions
- Topic: Is This A Crazy Business Idea?
- Replies: 11
- Views: 3446
Re: Is This A Crazy Business Idea?
I'd say it's pretty clear that what you want to do classifies as investment advising in California and that you'd have to be registered with the state to do so.
But please call the appropriate sources to get an official answer before you do anything.
But please call the appropriate sources to get an official answer before you do anything.
- Wed Nov 18, 2015 2:29 pm
- Forum: Bonds
- Topic: Swap Spread Negative
- Replies: 9
- Views: 4958
Re: Swap Spread Negative
Wow. that's a lot of dry powder as Craig would put it. You are quite the pessimist hah. :) More like I couldn't find any value! Stocks -- nope. Bonds -- risky. Gold -- downtrend. At least I nibbled. I do think we're going to look back at this losing year as "Tight Money"... even if i...
- Wed Oct 21, 2015 4:03 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Why the PP is better in accumulation than you think
- Replies: 224
- Views: 71109
Re: Why the PP is better in accumulation than you think
Simply following a 200 day MA will get you stopped out all over the place. One key point is to only check 1x per month, same day of the month. It will cause some excess trades, for sure. Small price to pay for potential benefits. But it's not a lazy portfolio. Once a month will be very risky, and j...
- Mon Oct 19, 2015 4:45 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Why the PP is better in accumulation than you think
- Replies: 224
- Views: 71109
Re: Why the PP is better in accumulation than you think
there ias no guarantee when if rates rise on bonds that the pp won't sustain moderate prolonged losses over an extended period of time if gold and bonds take a hit and its investors bail at losses . . Just a minor correction above. You do make a good point though about drawdown tolerance. Taking i...
- Tue Oct 06, 2015 6:57 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Mathjak's Market Calls
- Replies: 150
- Views: 50263
Re: Mathjak's Market Calls
Working systems are a dime a dozen. Believing in them and sticking to them thick and thin is where the failure lies. Discipline. 100% true and backtestable. Systems fail when emotions trump system rules. There's no difference between a moving average and a rebalancing band; both are measures of m...
- Tue Sep 29, 2015 12:24 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: The Reason to Quit PP
- Replies: 262
- Views: 88116
Re: The Reason to Quit PP
Why bother donning a winter coat in summer, just because we know winter is coming? Enjoy the summer, but know where the coat is. Interesting analogy, but let's take it a step farther. In the big scheme of things, our collective financial analysis knowledge is like that of a child compared to all of...
- Mon Sep 28, 2015 11:52 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: The Reason to Quit PP
- Replies: 262
- Views: 88116
Re: The Reason to Quit PP
yeah , i know if you are doing it you will try to justify it with no one knows what is next , but a reasonable person who is not entrenched in gold would at least wait until some signs are in place when the trend is your friend to make a big commitment . they would likely committ no more than 10% ...
- Fri Sep 25, 2015 5:43 pm
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Taking Backtest Requests..
- Replies: 4
- Views: 3504
Re: Taking Backtest Requests..
I've seen this one mentioned before. Once per month calculate trailing 3 month return of 4 PP assets. Invest in top 3. 1994-present CAGR: 7.4% Max daily DD: -20.0% 1994 -4.0 1995 21.3 1996 6.1 1997 12.1 1998 4.8 1999 4.7 2000 0.6 2001 2.7 2002 14.0 2003 9.5 2004 5.4 2005 5.7 2006 15.1 2007 14.0 2008...
- Fri Sep 25, 2015 2:47 pm
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Taking Backtest Requests..
- Replies: 4
- Views: 3504
Re: Taking Backtest Requests..
How many trades did your setup end up making? As Ochotona showed and I looked at a while back, using 10 month MA is something done out there by folks. I find even that is doing too much trading and is too whippy for my tastes. On GLD, since my entry into the PP in Feb 2014, I would have gone in ...
- Fri Sep 25, 2015 11:39 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: The Reason to Quit PP
- Replies: 262
- Views: 88116
Re: The Reason to Quit PP
gold will always have short term moves based on the dollar not crises unless inflationary ... Does this really matter? If gold responds to the dollar and the dollar responds to a crisis, what difference does it make? You still get the desired response. at the height of the financial crises gold ac...
- Fri Sep 25, 2015 8:07 am
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Taking Backtest Requests..
- Replies: 4
- Views: 3504
Re: Taking Backtest Requests..
Same as the above except 100% stocks when bullish. Switch between: 100% total stock market (VTSMX) and the PP (using VTSMX/VUSTX/VFISX and CEF before switching to GLD when it comes available in 2004) When: SPY is above/below its 200-day SMA. I only look at the portfolio once per month to determine ...