Search found 1052 matches

by Gosso
Thu Nov 20, 2014 7:56 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold Market Manipulation is a Myth
Replies: 50
Views: 25961

Re: Gold Market Manipulation is a Myth

Here's an article from Bloomberg regarding the aluminum merry-go-round:  http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-11-20/the-goldman-sachs-aluminum-conspiracy-was-pretty-silly After reading that I was reminded of Hanlon's razor : "Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stup...
by Gosso
Thu Nov 20, 2014 4:14 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold Market Manipulation is a Myth
Replies: 50
Views: 25961

Re: Gold Market Manipulation is a Myth

More hard evidence of large banks manipulating commodities -  this time from a US senate report naming JP Morgan, Goldman-Sachs and others:   http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2014/11/19/senate-report-criticizes-goldman-and-jpmorgan-over-their-roles-in-commodities-market/   http://www.zerohedge.com/news/...
by Gosso
Fri Nov 14, 2014 4:53 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold Market Manipulation is a Myth
Replies: 50
Views: 25961

Re: Gold Market Manipulation is a Myth

I was just reading through Jesse Livermore's Reminiscences of a Stock Operator and came across this passage, which made me think of all the claims of market manipualtion in the gold market: As I have said a thousand times, no manipulation can put stocks down and keep them down. There is nothing myst...
by Gosso
Thu Nov 13, 2014 3:56 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: CAGR over time
Replies: 10
Views: 4067

Re: CAGR over time

Here's the rolling real CAGR:

[img width=500]http://i61.tinypic.com/jzb61e.png[/img]
by Gosso
Sat Nov 08, 2014 8:56 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Great new diet idea
Replies: 2
Views: 2313

Re: Great new diet idea

For years I had to annoyingly crush the Doritos into the Mountain Dew bottle, well, no more!  Problem solved!

http://time.com/3573045/doritos-flavore ... pocalypse/
by Gosso
Sat Nov 08, 2014 8:37 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Asset Volatility Question
Replies: 10
Views: 4763

Re: Asset Volatility Question

Fun thread. Great chart Gosso! Just one thing...how is the pain/gain ratio calculated?  Interestingly, the 60/40 appears to be very close to the PP or better for almost all the time except some periods in the 1970s.  I imagine that's the eras when gold was skyrocketing.  That's a bit counterintuitiv...
by Gosso
Fri Nov 07, 2014 11:24 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Asset Volatility Question
Replies: 10
Views: 4763

Re: Asset Volatility Question

The gain to pain ratio shows that the PP has had a tough couple of years, while the 60/40 has enjoyed much happiness.  The chart below shows the gain to pain ratio measured over two year rolling periods (the higher the G/P the better).  It's pretty interesting - I bet it would be a leading indicator...
by Gosso
Fri Nov 07, 2014 8:16 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Curve Fitted Back Testing
Replies: 9
Views: 4018

Re: Curve Fitted Back Testing

Gosso, Can you please explain this further? Does it mean that for every down month in the PP, there are 1.65 up months? Real or nominal? Thanks. You're close, it also measures the magnitudes of the positive months vs negative months.  The numbers I used were inflation-adjusted (real), from Jan-1972...
by Gosso
Thu Nov 06, 2014 5:51 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Curve Fitted Back Testing
Replies: 9
Views: 4018

Re: Curve Fitted Back Testing

Use a "learning" data set and a "testing" data set.  That is, fit your model to some subset of the data, and then look at how the predictions work on the rest of the data.  For example, if you have 10 years worth of data, fit parameters based on the first 7 years, and see how those parameters work ...
by Gosso
Wed Nov 05, 2014 8:35 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 130 Years of 60/40
Replies: 7
Views: 5084

Re: 130 Years of 60/40

I posted this quote from William Bernstein on the 60:30:10 thread, but I think it's relevant to this discussion as well. Since it was illegal to own gold until 1975 I'd suggest running your numbers starting in 1980; you'll get quite different results. It was illegal to own physical gold, but it was...
by Gosso
Thu Oct 09, 2014 7:30 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 130 Years of 60/40
Replies: 7
Views: 5084

Re: 130 Years of 60/40

It is obvious to me that gold smooths out the rough periods for stocks and bonds (at least when gold is allowed to freely float).

Image

It is basic math.  The PP wins.
by Gosso
Thu Oct 09, 2014 7:21 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: YouTube Junkie
Replies: 1230
Views: 589810

Re: YouTube Junkie

Anyone with an interest in sailing must check our "White Spot Pirates": https://www.youtube.com/user/WhiteSpotPirates

Not only is she a cute german gal, but she has more balls than most of us.
by Gosso
Thu Oct 09, 2014 6:50 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 130 Years of 60/40
Replies: 7
Views: 5084

130 Years of 60/40

I wasn't sure where to post this, but I thought it belong along side the PP as a comparison. I've had this data for awhile but thought I'd share it with y'all (it is up to date to the end of 2013).  The first is a 60/40 (60% stocks, 40% 10 years US bonds) adjusted for inflation, with dividends and i...
by Gosso
Thu Oct 09, 2014 5:50 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Stock scream room
Replies: 1438
Views: 645653

Re: Stock scream room

I haven't seen stocks move like this since Shakira's "Hips Don't Lie": https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DUT5rEU6pqM
by Gosso
Thu Oct 09, 2014 5:46 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Strategies for Compulsive Portfolio Checkers
Replies: 30
Views: 17050

Re: Strategies for Compulsive Portfolio Checkers

Try Fantasy Hockey or Football.  I now waste most of time looking up hockey stats than stock stats.
by Gosso
Thu Oct 09, 2014 5:42 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: How is Gold Priced?
Replies: 10
Views: 5066

Re: How is Gold Priced?

Gold is priced by how many times Peter Schiff, Marc Faber, Jim Rogers, and Eric Sprott appear on TV in a given month.  :) Try Googling the "silver fix", since there were some rumblings about it when one aspect of it was shutdown a few months back.  I don't think it has much impact for guys like you ...
by Gosso
Thu Oct 09, 2014 5:18 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Drinking is healthy
Replies: 28
Views: 16090

Re: Drinking is healthy

I came across this Youtube video and thought I'd post it here:"Why Do I Drink So Much?"(3 minutes)
by Gosso
Thu Oct 09, 2014 5:09 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Cold Fusion (E-Cat)
Replies: 53
Views: 16760

Re: Cold Fusion (E-Cat)

Another interesting article on cold fusion: "Cold fusion reactor verified by third-party researchers, seems to have 1 million times the energy density of gasoline" Andrea Rossi’s E-Cat — the device that purports to use cold fusion to generate massive amounts of cheap, green energy – has been verifie...
by Gosso
Sat Sep 20, 2014 10:43 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Alibaba
Replies: 5
Views: 2676

Re: Alibaba

Alibaba +38% Yahoo -2.7% Wad da Frac? One interpretation is that there were some people who owned Yahoo simply as a proxy for owning Alibaba.  Once they could own the real thing, they got out of the substitute. EDIT: And nice to see you around these parts again, Gosso! I heard some people saying th...
by Gosso
Sat Sep 20, 2014 10:34 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: YouTube Junkie
Replies: 1230
Views: 589810

Re: YouTube Junkie

Mountaineer wrote:
Gosso wrote: The magic of PVC pipes, "Pipe Guy" (10 minutes):

http://youtu.be/-0gED3rn2Tc
Gosso!  Great to see you.  Where have you been?  Missed your posts.

... Mountaineer
Hey Mountaineer!  I was out touring my PVC drum set.  :P
by Gosso
Fri Sep 19, 2014 6:02 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: YouTube Junkie
Replies: 1230
Views: 589810

Re: YouTube Junkie

The magic of PVC pipes, "Pipe Guy" (10 minutes):

http://youtu.be/-0gED3rn2Tc
by Gosso
Fri Sep 19, 2014 5:54 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Alibaba
Replies: 5
Views: 2676

Re: Alibaba

Alibaba +38%
Yahoo -2.7%

Wad da Frac?
by Gosso
Tue Mar 18, 2014 11:31 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Reserve Currency
Replies: 4
Views: 2491

Re: Reserve Currency

I wouldn't change anything.  Maybe purchase some stocks from the new reserve country(ies). I don't like the idea of purchasing foreign bonds since the currency fluctuations will make them extremely volatile, and hedging the currency risk is generally expensive and results in large tracking errors.  ...
by Gosso
Mon Mar 17, 2014 10:36 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Canadian Long Bonds (30yr) ... convince me
Replies: 6
Views: 3990

Re: Canadian Long Bonds (30yr) ... convince me

mgtow, The US still has some of the most important and powerful companies in the world, and the companies in the S&P500 derive roughly 50% of the revenue from outside the US.  And lets not forget that holding the S&P500 gives you exposure to the USD, which is still the reserve currency of the world ...
by Gosso
Mon Mar 17, 2014 3:11 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Canadian Long Bonds (30yr) ... convince me
Replies: 6
Views: 3990

Re: Canadian Long Bonds (30yr) ... convince me

I agree with most of your post.  Keep in mind that there is little difference between a barbell (short and long) and bullet (intermediate) bond allocations as long as the overall bond duration is roughly the same.  I personally think most PPers would be less stressed with intermediate bonds, but I d...