Search found 77 matches

by senecaaa
Sat Jan 04, 2020 12:17 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: European PP, update 6 months after starting
Replies: 43
Views: 29170

Re: European PP, update 6 months after starting

Have anyone ideas why my caluation of 2002-2017 EU PP cagrR is 3.5% while Tyler calculates 5.5% for the german PP in 2002-2017 ? http://www.carterapermanente.es/cartera-permanente-europea-con-etfs/ Here's my asset assumptions that I would use in the PC calculators from reading your previous posts. ...
by senecaaa
Thu Jan 02, 2020 5:59 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: xetra gold
Replies: 2
Views: 3413

Re: xetra gold

9.5 years later I'm also looking at Xetra gold :-) They have a fancy dedicated website now: https://www.xetra-gold.com/en/ It looks as good as ZGLD with a slightly lower TER, and the fund is way larger and way more liquid. I only can't find any information about the performance compared to the actua...
by senecaaa
Wed Jan 01, 2020 10:30 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Should we be all in cash?
Replies: 12
Views: 4700

Re: Should we be all in cash?

"Should we all be in cash?" It depends! If you can demonstrate numerically that you can fund your lifetime needs with pure cash, why not be in cash? On the other hand, few have enough cash to be able to do this. Even then , though, I wouldn't want to be all in cash. What if the government implement...
by senecaaa
Wed Jan 01, 2020 10:29 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Should we be all in cash?
Replies: 12
Views: 4700

Re: Should we be all in cash?

ochotona wrote:
Wed Jan 01, 2020 10:05 am
"Should we all be in cash?"

It depends! If you can demonstrate numerically that you can fund your lifetime needs with pure cash, why not be in cash? On the other hand, few have enough cash to be able to do this.
Well, it would be until one of the other assets dropped significantly.
by senecaaa
Wed Jan 01, 2020 8:39 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Should we be all in cash?
Replies: 12
Views: 4700

Re: Should we be all in cash?

over priced really is hard to define . from jan 1 2017 to jan 1 2020 the s&p is up just 18% despite record earnings . gold had a good year but how do you value gold at the end of the day other than what ever someone wants to pay bonds have had a good year but long term treasuries trade like stocks ...
by senecaaa
Wed Jan 01, 2020 8:37 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Should we be all in cash?
Replies: 12
Views: 4700

Re: Should we be all in cash?

Let’s put it this way: we’ve nearly always been in the situation where someone is asking that question. O0 Haha, that is the perspective I was looking for! Sure, the whole portfolio will go down at some point, making people wish they had taken profits. How does one know when to get back in? The pp ...
by senecaaa
Wed Jan 01, 2020 7:07 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Should we be all in cash?
Replies: 12
Views: 4700

Should we be all in cash?

I have been reading and learning about the PP (and the GB) and what I like about these portfolios is that there is always a part of the portfolio that is doing great, while others are not so great. But if we look at the current situation: - stocks: a never-ending bull market - gold: higher than ever...
by senecaaa
Fri Dec 27, 2019 4:46 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Golden Butterfly Portfolio
Replies: 539
Views: 350274

Re: Golden Butterfly Portfolio

Thanks, guys!
by senecaaa
Thu Dec 26, 2019 3:21 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Golden Butterfly Portfolio
Replies: 539
Views: 350274

Re: Golden Butterfly Portfolio

Something completely different, but related to the Golden Butterfly Portfolio: I don't really understand the reason we have short-term treasuries in the portfolio. Similar to cash/bills in the PP. From reading the book about the PP the only reason I can come up with is that it provides liquid assets...
by senecaaa
Sun Dec 22, 2019 2:39 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Golden Butterfly Portfolio
Replies: 539
Views: 350274

Re: Golden Butterfly Portfolio

The difference between GB and PP-with-SCV is 0.5% on PortfolioCharts. In the graph posted above, it was only 0.34%.

So apparently the conservative (15th percentile) calculation is in the advantage of the GB. Or maybe inflation affects the PP different than the GB.
by senecaaa
Sat Dec 21, 2019 7:50 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Golden Butterfly Portfolio
Replies: 539
Views: 350274

Re: Golden Butterfly Portfolio

When I tried the allocation on Portfolio Charts using 25% each SCV,LT,ST,GLD I got a BL-LT return of 5.3% vs 5.5% for the GB and 4.2% for the PP as you mentioned. Its quite interesting that the PP using SCV went from a BL-LT return ranking of 14 to 3 I think 25% each SCV,LT,BIL,GLD goes to 5.0%? I ...
by senecaaa
Sat Dec 21, 2019 3:32 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Golden Butterfly Portfolio
Replies: 539
Views: 350274

Re: Golden Butterfly Portfolio

For those interested in a prima facie comparison, here's an SCV tilted Permanent Portfolio (in blue) vs the Golden Butterfly (in red). How is the data you are using different from PortfolioCharts? Here the baseline LT return for the GB is 5.5% versus 4.2% for the PP: https://portfoliocharts.com/por...
by senecaaa
Thu Dec 19, 2019 2:38 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Golden Butterfly Portfolio
Replies: 539
Views: 350274

Re: Golden Butterfly Portfolio

I'm implementing it from an EU perspective. If anyone is interested in my list of funds, please let me know.
by senecaaa
Sun Dec 15, 2019 2:42 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Buying and maintaining the LT bonds part of the PP
Replies: 19
Views: 8776

Re: Buying and maintaining the LT bonds part of the PP

Yes, I agree with that. If I lived in the US I'd go with TLT :) This is what comes closest in the EU: https://www.ishares.com/uk/individual/en/products/272122/ishares-euro-government-bond-20yr-target-duration-ucits-etf but has just a duration of 19 years. I think you might be confusing maturity and...
by senecaaa
Sun Dec 15, 2019 5:32 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Buying and maintaining the LT bonds part of the PP
Replies: 19
Views: 8776

Re: Buying and maintaining the LT bonds part of the PP

all you care about is the total return , not how the fund makes the sausage as they say . if that fund performs it's function in the model how the managers do it is up to them . if rates rise you will see the same losses in a bond ladder as the fund . after a while perfect becomes the enemy of "goo...
by senecaaa
Sun Dec 15, 2019 3:01 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Buying and maintaining the LT bonds part of the PP
Replies: 19
Views: 8776

Re: Buying and maintaining the LT bonds part of the PP

1. The only bond with 30-year maturity is https://www.boerse-berlin.com/index.php/Bonds?isin=DE0001102481. It has a 0% coupon and trades at a discount. Does all that matter? I think in theory it doesn't matter what the coupon is -- positive, zero, or negative. All that matters is the volatility. Th...
by senecaaa
Sun Dec 15, 2019 2:49 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Buying and maintaining the LT bonds part of the PP
Replies: 19
Views: 8776

Re: Buying and maintaining the LT bonds part of the PP

The logic here is flawed about if rates go up ...selling a bond that lost value because rates went up and losing money is no different then selling a losing stock and buying something you think is better .... a loss is a loss and it does not come back ...you just. Hope what you buy next be it anoth...
by senecaaa
Sat Dec 14, 2019 4:04 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Buying and maintaining the LT bonds part of the PP
Replies: 19
Views: 8776

Re: Buying and maintaining the LT bonds part of the PP

Tlt works just fine unless you have zombie apocalypse visions
I'm looking at German bunds because I live in the EU. There are no suitable LT Euro gov bond funds/ETFs available here with a duration above 20 years
by senecaaa
Sat Dec 14, 2019 2:06 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Buying and maintaining the LT bonds part of the PP
Replies: 19
Views: 8776

Re: Buying and maintaining the LT bonds part of the PP

zero coupon bonds can be far more volatile ... a 30 year zero coupon bond would be so volatile that it would out weigh everything else . a 10 year zero coupon bond can be as volatile as a 30 year conventional bond Yeah, I was thinking that as well, because of convexity right? So how can I pick a bo...
by senecaaa
Sat Dec 14, 2019 11:23 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Buying and maintaining the LT bonds part of the PP
Replies: 19
Views: 8776

Re: Buying and maintaining the LT bonds part of the PP

Personally, I wouldn't buy long term bonds with a 0% coupon. If the US ever gets that low I plan on buying whatever the longest duration is with a positive yield. The opinions on this seem divided here on this forum, but no one can really explain why this time is different. The coupon is not really...
by senecaaa
Sat Dec 14, 2019 4:16 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Buying and maintaining the LT bonds part of the PP
Replies: 19
Views: 8776

Buying and maintaining the LT bonds part of the PP

I live in the EU and am going to buy German "bunds" which are available (secondary market) through my broker. I have a few questions: 1. The only bond with 30-year maturity is https://www.boerse-berlin.com/index.php/Bonds?isin=DE0001102481. It has a 0% coupon and trades at a discount. Does all that ...
by senecaaa
Sat Dec 14, 2019 3:35 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Spreadsheets to Track PP
Replies: 49
Views: 142470

Re: Spreadsheets to Track PP

Hmm pity, I'll keep on looking then. Maybe try to build something simple myself.
by senecaaa
Fri Dec 13, 2019 10:22 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Spreadsheets to Track PP
Replies: 49
Views: 142470

Re: Spreadsheets to Track PP

Hi! I have read through this thread and I can't get any of the sheets to work, see e.g. a screenshot below of an error in this sheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1y0P_B2faDnCu6QIUVoyQM1k8JTURHPXEeqKvmYjmEN4/edit#gid=17. Does anyone have the latest version of it? It looks awesome and would...
by senecaaa
Thu Dec 12, 2019 6:00 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Reinvesting interests and dividends
Replies: 4
Views: 1851

Re: Reinvesting interests and dividends

It works the same for us except when the fund itself reinvests the dividend (accumulating fund). So we also got that weird (unfair) thing that when a fund pays a dividend, and I reinvest it a second later it still gets taxed as profit. So that is why I always thought that buying accumulating funds a...