The low 2018 return is a bit artificial. If the year had ended a few weeks later or earlier, it would be a whole different story. The YTD 2019 returns reflect the deep transient market dive at year's end: the PP stands at 7.8% and GB at 9% - and this is just for the first half of the year! Even tho...

For May 2016-May 2019 Bureau of Labor Statistics report the U.S. Consumer price index as up 6.6%. So inflation has averaged +2.2% over three years. A little more than I thought! I am happy with the PP I think since 2014 the returns are lower than history I think some deflation is in the system but c...

Real is real, that’s why we use it and not nominal. "Shilling notes that U.S. inflation numbers don’t register the full impact of falling prices because the Bureau of Labor Statistics has not kept up with the explosion of new technology products." The goverment can't measure inflation but...

Real is real, that’s why we use it and not nominal. "Shilling notes that U.S. inflation numbers don’t register the full impact of falling prices because the Bureau of Labor Statistics has not kept up with the explosion of new technology products." The goverment can't measure inflation but...

No one is picking up on we may be OK with recent PP returns if DEFLATION has started.

https://www.thinkadvisor.com/2019/02/16 ... 0512161205

In 47 years the PP has made plus 3% REAL 77% of the time using a 3 year rolling average. 11 years or 23% they have made less. Here are the 11 years: 1977 2.8% 1990 1.1% 1994 2.1% 2000 2.6% 2001 .2% 2002 2.3% 2008 2.8% 2014 2.9% 2015 1.5% 2017 2.6% 2018 2.8% These numbers are from a friend and not fr...

Agreed, three years is too short of a timeframe from which to judge the PP. As has been noted in discussions on this forum over the years, the PP can have (and actually has had, once or twice) negative returns for rolling time windows of up to about three years. If I recall, there are very few port...

PP Returns:

Last 12 months 6.6%

Last 24 months 4.8%

Last 36 months 4.9%

YTD 7.9%

If you take out inflation of 2% or so these returns appear to be about 1% or 2% LOW vs history.

If we have had actual DEFLATION of 1% maybe we are OK?

Anybody Happy?

Budd had about 2000 posts. I remember a lot of hand holding from med tex and craig. Nobody on this board has had more support from others. When you have had this high level of support and want to be banned it is OK by me.

You know the rest...junk! No matter what anyone tells you avoid Au like the plague. PP not much better at all. Thank god I reduced my allocation to the assets that go no where but down. Where’s ugly_bird? Seems he deleted his post. For his benefit, stocks are + ~20% YTD and precious gold is negativ...

You know the rest...junk! No matter what anyone tells you avoid Au like the plague. PP not much better at all. Thank god I reduced my allocation to the assets that go no where but down. Where’s ugly_bird? Seems he deleted his post. For his benefit, stocks are + ~20% YTD and precious gold is negativ...

No big bounce to 2674. Looks like I'm selling Monday. It has been a good run since 4/2016. My port will be about 10% gold, 12% cash, 5% equities, the rest 2-7 year T-Notes. Big bet placed on the US Treasury! Like to hear how many trades and what did you NET over a buy and hold 100% SPY. In other wo...

No big bounce to 2674. Looks like I'm selling Monday. It has been a good run since 4/2016. My port will be about 10% gold, 12% cash, 5% equities, the rest 2-7 year T-Notes. Big bet placed on the US Treasury! Like to hear how many trades and what did you NET over a buy and hold 100% SPY. In other wo...

Merry Christmas - target allocation is 35/15/15/35. A little more prosperity and cash, a little less gold and LTT’s. I think I can follow this allocation without much regret. Merry Christmas. Thanks If I was a little younger I would go at least 40% prosperity as cash does not return full value a lo...

I’m sticking to the plan and moving from 25/25/15/35 to 35/15/15/35 and am currently 30/17.5/17.5/35. I TLH Gold and offset gains in SCV (IJS) I then bought SC Blend (IJR) to move closer to 35% Definitely have felt the pain in stocks as IJR is down 6% since that purchase. Basically, sold some gold ...

I’m sticking to the plan and moving from 25/25/15/35 to 35/15/15/35 and am currently 30/17.5/17.5/35. I TLH Gold and offset gains in SCV (IJS) I then bought SC Blend (IJR) to move closer to 35% Definitely have felt the pain in stocks as IJR is down 6% since that purchase. Basically, sold some gold ...

Actually I think you are the fool. I’ve run across people like you all my life, thinking they are superior than someone else in one way or another. Again, humorous to me these are usually the losers of the bunch Mr. vacuum cleaner. Like the PP, you suck. Budd, this has always been a very "hand...

I started our PP in late 08, during the meltdown. Since then, the 10 year avg annual return has been 5.5%. On balance I am happy with that. It seems like it should be much higher, but then again, the gold, the cash, not much return there. Disclosure, I have some variances in the portfolio, mostly b...

Gold is a precious metal. It so valuable that you can buy it at the cost of production! About $1100. Back up the truck. Get all you want. I do believe in PP. But it's a hard sell for all my friends. Think 1982 when interest rates were high. Went from $850 to $250. A little correction but it was a lo...

Is everyone sitting down? I’ve come full circle, acceptance. Sticking to rebalancing bands and focusing on loss harvesting. It’s easier that way for all of us! Who are you and what have you done with Buddtholomew! Congrats to you! Your peace of mind will thank you. Put the gold investment out of si...

Is everyone sitting down? I’ve come full circle, acceptance. Sticking to rebalancing bands and focusing on loss harvesting. It’s easier that way for all of us! Who are you and what have you done with Buddtholomew! Congrats to you! Your peace of mind will thank you. Put the gold investment out of si...

Hi all, adding my 2 cents. My leveraged PP is the following: 45% UPRO 35% TMF 20% UGLD I keep it simple and just rebalance annually. Its returned 22.23% CAGR over the past 5 years (2013-2017), here's a performance screenshot: http://www.tightwadweb.com/3x-2013-2017.jpg So far, the first 6 months of...

I am a fan of PP. OK! So here is something that no one can do. Perdict the price of gold for 17 years out! Let me start with the price of Production: It is about $1100 to produce an ounce of gold. Why pay more! Jumping to a conclusion gold will not be over $1900 for 17 years if you believe in the 17...

I don't think any asset class likes higher interest rates.

ochotona wrote:No change to the portfolio for May 2018. Still in 81% SCHF + 19% SCHE, or 100% in VEU.

Thanks! When I look at the charts lines cross but still no change. I guess they can cross back.