Search found 755 matches

by jhogue
Wed Apr 17, 2019 8:59 am
Forum: Cash
Topic: New I Bond Rate 11/1/18 to 4/30/18
Replies: 48
Views: 55103

Re: New I Bond Rate 11/1/18 to 4/30/18

Yup.

With the 1 year T bill currently at 2.43%, I bonds purchased after May 1 do not look appealing.
by jhogue
Tue Apr 16, 2019 6:52 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: New I Bond Rate 11/1/18 to 4/30/18
Replies: 48
Views: 55103

Re: New I Bond Rate 11/1/18 to 4/30/18

You are probably right that for the long term holder of I-bonds, 30 year tax deferral and inflation protection might prove more valuable than their current yield. But given the propensity for politicians of all stripes to tinker with the tax code, anything is possible. That said, I think that the I ...
by jhogue
Mon Apr 15, 2019 2:19 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: New I Bond Rate 11/1/18 to 4/30/18
Replies: 48
Views: 55103

Re: New I Bond Rate 11/1/18 to 4/30/18

Completed buying my full allocation of I bonds for 2019 last week. The 2.83% composite rate looked too good to pass up. In comparison, the 1 year Treasury is currently 2.43%, while the 5 year Treasury stands at 2.37%. The Treasury yield curve inverted in December 2018 and has since gotten wider and ...
by jhogue
Tue Apr 02, 2019 7:50 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Stock scream room
Replies: 1438
Views: 645991

Re: Stock scream room

Jeffreyallan, Being 100% in any one of the HBPP assets is bad. Being 100% in cash is much worse than you think. But don't take my word for it: Try out Tyler's charts at portfolio.com and enter any portfolio mix you can imagine, including all cash. Even if you don't stuff it all under your mattress, ...
by jhogue
Tue Mar 26, 2019 8:49 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Climate Change
Replies: 40
Views: 15976

Re: Climate Change

So who is doing the cherry picking? The climate change alarmists strike me as precisely the same crowd of "scientists" that tried to spread panic in the wake of the publication of Paul Ehrlich’s now-thoroughly refuted The Population Bomb in the late 1960s and early 1970s. As Yogi Berra used to say, ...
by jhogue
Fri Mar 22, 2019 3:48 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Will Trump be Re-elected?
Replies: 648
Views: 343361

Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Newsflash!

Donald Trump is to blame for everything-- including the leftward lurch of the Democratic Party.



https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video ... party.html
by jhogue
Wed Mar 20, 2019 1:04 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Will Trump be Re-elected?
Replies: 648
Views: 343361

Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

So here is my 2nd post on "public" transportation in the USA: (Hopefully then we can get back on topic!) I. Unlike the Swiss, the American rail system (Amtrak) is expensive, inconvenient, and not well-connected. The USA will never be connected by a European-style rail network. The geographical dista...
by jhogue
Wed Mar 20, 2019 9:17 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: FNBGX vs. individual bonds at Fidelity
Replies: 21
Views: 17538

Re: FNBGX vs. individual bonds at Fidelity

foglifter: 1. Fidelity's secondary Treasury market is so liquid you can watch the yield changes by 0.01% increments in real time on their pop-out chart for bond yields.Try it some time. It is free. 2. There is a bid/ask spread for buying/selling Treasurys. That's how Fidelity makes money on its auto...
by jhogue
Mon Mar 18, 2019 6:58 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: FNBGX vs. individual bonds at Fidelity
Replies: 21
Views: 17538

Re: FNBGX vs. individual bonds at Fidelity

I agree. It would be nice to have a cheaper TMMF from Fidelity. That said, anybody who has a Fidelity money market account should understand that this is a highly profitable business for the privately-held company. By one estimate, Fidelity, which is now the largest manager of money market funds in ...
by jhogue
Mon Mar 18, 2019 3:32 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: FNBGX vs. individual bonds at Fidelity
Replies: 21
Views: 17538

Re: FNBGX vs. individual bonds at Fidelity

I like buying LLTs directly, but I also own the ETF “TLT” (ER = 0.15%) in a smaller tax deferred account. FNBX (ER = 0.03%) looks dirt cheap in comparison to TLT, now that Fidelity slashed the ER in line with their current advertising program. That said, there is nothing that I know of that prevents...
by jhogue
Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:03 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Will Trump be Re-elected?
Replies: 648
Views: 343361

Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Ugh. I fear that I am about to help hijack this thread from its original topic. Maybe Xan can figure out how to branch this topic off as another thread? Oh well, the 2020 election is a long way off…. Let me suggest that we can advance our debate about rail by comparing the US system to the country w...
by jhogue
Thu Mar 14, 2019 1:41 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Will Trump be Re-elected?
Replies: 648
Views: 343361

Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

WiseOne, This may sound a bit harsh, but were you asleep for 8 years of Obama rule by executive fiat? 1. Obama got $1 trillion for so-called infrastructure projects in his first year in office. Did he build out the existing high speed rail network (eg., the “shovel ready” Washington, DC to Charlotte...
by jhogue
Mon Mar 11, 2019 9:12 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Will Trump be Re-elected?
Replies: 648
Views: 343361

Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

No, I mean that Schultz might do something reasonable that the voting public expects that a CEO might normally do, like put a price tag on the Green New Deal ($8-12 trillion dollars over the next decade alone according to one estimate, which amounts to something like $600,000 per U.S. household.) ht...
by jhogue
Sun Mar 10, 2019 6:56 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Will Trump be Re-elected?
Replies: 648
Views: 343361

Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Schultz has some celebrity name recognition with millennials, but he is way too pragmatic for rabid Trump haters. When the Everything-Should-Be-Free Santa Claus Socialists start trying to outbid one another before the Iowa Caucuses and the New Hampshire primary, Schultz will say something measured a...
by jhogue
Sun Mar 10, 2019 11:24 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Fidelity Bond and Bill Direct Purchase ?'s
Replies: 30
Views: 23034

Re: Fidelity Bond and Bill Direct Purchase ?'s

I agree with your estimation that using a TBM fund in your 401k is the kind of acceptable compromise to get started. It's more important to get started than it is to be prefect. You may want to investigate your 401k plan provider to see if they offer a brokerage window. If so, it would give you more...
by jhogue
Thu Mar 07, 2019 6:11 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: Treasury Direct account security discussion at Bogleheads
Replies: 37
Views: 49899

Re: Treasury Direct account security discussion at Bogleheads

Your post prompts a good question:

Why can't Treasury outsource the management of Treasury Direct to one or more brokerage firms?
by jhogue
Thu Mar 07, 2019 4:46 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: Treasury Direct account security discussion at Bogleheads
Replies: 37
Views: 49899

Re: Treasury Direct account security discussion at Bogleheads

I am not ready to hit the panic button over Treasury Direct’s annoying inability to assume full responsibility for the security of transactions in its electronic accounts. Their klunky written responses to the boglehead investor [above] remind me of why people hate dealing with august institutions l...
by jhogue
Thu Mar 07, 2019 3:18 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Fidelity Bond and Bill Direct Purchase ?'s
Replies: 30
Views: 23034

Re: Fidelity Bond and Bill Direct Purchase ?'s

Pmward, I understand and agree with your reasoning about gradually extending maturity of a portion of your T-bills. At the same time, I would caution you to do your homework on the present shape—and direction-- of the entire Treasury yield curve. Fidelity provides a useful pop-out chart titled “Fixe...
by jhogue
Thu Mar 07, 2019 9:18 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Fidelity Bond and Bill Direct Purchase ?'s
Replies: 30
Views: 23034

Re: Fidelity Bond and Bill Direct Purchase ?'s

Accumulating HBPP cash in an ETF and periodically making T-Bill direct purchases sounds like a good plan to me.

What I love most about T-Bill/T-Bond direct purchase is that it gives us the option to customize our HBPP holdings at both ends of the barbell.
by jhogue
Tue Mar 05, 2019 5:51 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Will Trump be Re-elected?
Replies: 648
Views: 343361

Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

This important update (and milestone) in Trump's re-election campaign: Trump's fellow billionaire Michael Bloomberg announces he will not run for President, saying: “we cannot allow the primary process to drag the party to an extreme that would diminish our chances in the general election and transl...
by jhogue
Mon Mar 04, 2019 8:09 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo
Replies: 500
Views: 297030

Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

Budd,

Rather than engage in an ad hominem argument, why don’t you tell us WHY you think that the PP has hit this stretch of underperformance? Do you think it is the result of unprecedented Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP)? Or perhaps something else?
by jhogue
Mon Mar 04, 2019 7:48 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: United States debt
Replies: 14
Views: 6270

Re: United States debt

OP, see this enlightening post by Cullen Roche of Pragmatic Capitalist. It doesn't directly answer your question, but it does address your underlying concern (which I share.)

https://www.pragcap.com/why-im-not-worr ... hold-debt/
by jhogue
Sat Feb 23, 2019 8:51 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Will Trump be Re-elected?
Replies: 648
Views: 343361

Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

More great news for Trump: Bernie Sanders declared for President. Jimmy Fallon on the Tonight Show (who does a wicked Trump imitation, by the way) made fun of Bernie three nights running, calling him an Old Man. Bernie's Santa Claus Socialism and his entry into the race form an important milestone i...
by jhogue
Fri Feb 22, 2019 9:03 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Will Trump be Re-elected?
Replies: 648
Views: 343361

Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Great news for Trump: Ms. Minnesota Nice herself —Senator Amy Klobuchar-- has declared for President. Her entry into the race ensures that Democrats will have a choice in the Iowa caucus between those who primarily hate Donald Trump’s persona and those who primarily hate “the rich.” Predictably, Tru...
by jhogue
Sat Feb 16, 2019 9:02 am
Forum: Cash
Topic: Treasury Direct account security discussion at Bogleheads
Replies: 37
Views: 49899

Re: Treasury Direct account security discussion at Bogleheads

If you really want to own a security with a TIPS feature, I think it would be something like iShares 0-5 Year TIPS Bond ETF (STIP), yields 2.42% now. There are problems with the use of TIPS for the HBPP: 1. In a deflationary scenario, the principal value of TIPS declines. US savings bonds will not ...