Search found 2464 matches

by buddtholomew
Thu Mar 31, 2022 2:02 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Fed damaging bond market
Replies: 53
Views: 10941

Re: Fed damaging bond market

Prove me wrong. We can play this game all day. The PP is directionless and the hope is that one or more assets increase more than the other assets decline to produce a positive return. Sometimes one or more assets are down and the remaining asset that is positive doesn’t increase enough to cover th...
by buddtholomew
Thu Mar 31, 2022 9:35 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Fed damaging bond market
Replies: 53
Views: 10941

Re: Fed damaging bond market

Prove me wrong. We can play this game all day. The PP is directionless and the hope is that one or more assets increase more than the other assets decline to produce a positive return. Sometimes one or more assets are down and the remaining asset that is positive doesn’t increase enough to cover the...
by buddtholomew
Thu Mar 31, 2022 9:29 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP is Totally Obsolete!!!
Replies: 62
Views: 21028

Re: PP is Totally Obsolete!!!

Apologies, it’s 2021-2022 YTD. 2020 - YTD returns are pretty close, about 2% difference. Fair enough. Inflation adjusted, the PP is down about 6% since Jan 2021. Pretty bad for this portfolio, but still far, far, far from a disaster. Coupled with the huge runup that we saw in 2019-2020, it's still ...
by buddtholomew
Thu Mar 31, 2022 9:27 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Fed damaging bond market
Replies: 53
Views: 10941

Re: Fed damaging bond market

The new normal for bonds is that they become more and more about simply guessing at central bank moves, and less about real-world fundamentals because investors will turn elsewhere to express such views -- precious metals, various equity sectors, commodity baskets and so on. I don't know that we ne...
by buddtholomew
Thu Mar 31, 2022 9:24 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP is Totally Obsolete!!!
Replies: 62
Views: 21028

Re: PP is Totally Obsolete!!!

01/2021 - 2022 YTD PP: 2.25% BH 60/40: 8% Where are you getting your numbers? According to portfoliovisualizer, i'm seeing that $10k invested in the PP Jan 2020 would be worth almost $11k today, inflation adjusted. Apologies, it’s 2021-2022 YTD. 2020 - YTD returns are pretty close, about 2% differe...
by buddtholomew
Thu Mar 31, 2022 8:29 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP is Totally Obsolete!!!
Replies: 62
Views: 21028

Re: PP is Totally Obsolete!!!

01/2020 - 2022 YTD

PP: 2.25%
BH 60/40: 8%
by buddtholomew
Thu Mar 31, 2022 7:40 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Fed damaging bond market
Replies: 53
Views: 10941

Re: Fed damaging bond market

The new normal for bonds is that they become more and more about simply guessing at central bank moves, and less about real-world fundamentals because investors will turn elsewhere to express such views -- precious metals, various equity sectors, commodity baskets and so on. I don't know that we ne...
by buddtholomew
Wed Mar 30, 2022 11:29 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Fed damaging bond market
Replies: 53
Views: 10941

Re: Fed damaging bond market

The new normal for bonds is that they become more and more about simply guessing at central bank moves, and less about real-world fundamentals because investors will turn elsewhere to express such views -- precious metals, various equity sectors, commodity baskets and so on. I don't know that we ne...
by buddtholomew
Tue Mar 29, 2022 1:33 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP is Totally Obsolete!!!
Replies: 62
Views: 21028

Re: PP is Totally Obsolete!!!

Honestly, I think that I am a walking billboard for the real benefit of the PP, which is it allows you to live your life without thinking about or worrying about your investments. I have grown so indifferent to the markets that I will go months without looking at anything related to any of the PP a...
by buddtholomew
Mon Mar 28, 2022 3:34 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Gundlach on LTT's today
Replies: 21
Views: 5418

Re: Gundlach on LTT's today

>:D The PP is truly fantastic in how poorly it performs. If you try and protect yourself from everything, you protect yourself from nothing. backwards take. PP is offensive on all fronts, not defensive Nah, not worth the headache.. Go ahead ppnewbie, you’ll be where I am 10 years from now...nothing ...
by buddtholomew
Mon Mar 28, 2022 2:34 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Gundlach on LTT's today
Replies: 21
Views: 5418

Re: Gundlach on LTT's today

The PP is truly fantastic in how poorly it performs.
If you try and protect yourself from everything, you protect yourself from nothing.
by buddtholomew
Fri Mar 25, 2022 1:17 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Gundlach on LTT's today
Replies: 21
Views: 5418

Re: Gundlach on LTT's today

I ascribe to buy, hold and rebalance as long as the risk/reward relationship exists for these assets. I no longer see LTT’s as worth holding and understand that I may not benefit from a flight to safety (although LTT’s have gone down steadily with the war, inflation and other headwinds). I initially...
by buddtholomew
Fri Mar 25, 2022 10:10 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Gundlach on LTT's today
Replies: 21
Views: 5418

Re: Gundlach on LTT's today

Ouch!
Stocks, gold and cash are the order of the day.
It no longer makes sense to me to hold bonds.
by buddtholomew
Thu Feb 17, 2022 10:47 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3689
Views: 1656773

Re: The GOLD scream room

Fuck yeah, finally!!
by buddtholomew
Fri Feb 11, 2022 3:42 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3689
Views: 1656773

Re: The GOLD scream room

A mention of a potential attack from Russia in Ukraine and for US citizens to leave the region.
by buddtholomew
Fri Feb 11, 2022 11:04 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Yay PP!
Replies: 268
Views: 56258

Re: Yay PP!

Why does value outperform during the current economic environment?
by buddtholomew
Thu Feb 10, 2022 9:00 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Yay PP!
Replies: 268
Views: 56258

Re: Yay PP!

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/10/january-2022-cpi-inflation-rises-7point5percent-over-the-past-year-even-more-than-expected.html We have unexpected inflation with rising interest rates. I’m not sure the argument holds true anymore as rising rates smother any potential gains in Gold related to higher ...
by buddtholomew
Thu Feb 03, 2022 8:37 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Yay PP!
Replies: 268
Views: 56258

Re: Yay PP!

Deleted
by buddtholomew
Fri Jan 28, 2022 8:11 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Yay PP!
Replies: 268
Views: 56258

Re: Yay PP!

Last post for ppnewbie. Run far away ppnewbie, the PP is a lifetime of disappointment. I was in Analytics/BI for 15 years at a Fortune 300 company so I understand your mental makeup. The agnostic nature of the portfolio sounds great on the surface but you lose to equities on the upside and there is ...
by buddtholomew
Thu Jan 27, 2022 10:16 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Yay PP!
Replies: 268
Views: 56258

Re: Yay PP!

Golds turn to take a beating again. This portfolio can lose in countless ways. TLT up 1% but it lost 1.2% yesterday so blah. You're a broken record. Why continue to post here, unless your goal in life is to drive off the few folks who still frequent these forums thanks to this kind of pointless tro...
by buddtholomew
Thu Jan 27, 2022 8:00 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Yay PP!
Replies: 268
Views: 56258

Re: Yay PP!

Golds turn to take a beating again.
This portfolio can lose in countless ways.
TLT up 1% but it lost 1.2% yesterday so blah.
by buddtholomew
Wed Jan 26, 2022 3:51 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Yay PP!
Replies: 268
Views: 56258

Re: Yay PP!

During a darker blue period for equities.
Now, during a period where stocks are on the decline, the other PP components are as well.
There is no gyroscope effect.
Rising rates are impacting other portfolios too but losses are magnified for the PP with the levered holdings.
by buddtholomew
Wed Jan 26, 2022 3:37 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Yay PP!
Replies: 268
Views: 56258

Re: Yay PP!

PP hurting bad. Gold and LTT’s cannibalizing each other to the downside as rates rise. Sucks for sure. Budd, you never answered my question from a few days ago on when you got into the portfolio, and what your expectations were at that time? I setup a taxable PP in 2010. Took literally that one or ...
by buddtholomew
Wed Jan 26, 2022 3:02 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Yay PP!
Replies: 268
Views: 56258

Re: Yay PP!

PP hurting bad.
Gold and LTT’s cannibalizing each other to the downside as rates rise.
Sucks for sure.
by buddtholomew
Mon Jan 24, 2022 1:54 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Yay PP!
Replies: 268
Views: 56258

Re: Yay PP!

The PP has failed me and I only hope the rest of the board opens their eyes to see what is unfolding.