Thinking about doing a pmward partial rebalance before closing today. Maybe 1/4 back up to my normal stock allocation. Yeah, stocks could keep going down but it's really hard to call the bottom. All we can say for sure is that money invested today will buy a lot more shares than it would have a cou...

That's the popular phrase they use at Bogleheads. Stay the course, no matter what. The PP is not tanking as much as the Boglehead-type portfolios. Stocks, bonds, AND gold have all been taking a beating, however. Is the current scenario the one scenario where the Permanent Portfolio may up taking a b...

Jack Jones wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 11:20 am Still haven’t pulled the trigger on the above. Thinking of doing so before EOD but still a bit apprehensive. Anyone else rebalancing into stocks?

Do you think the stock market is near the bottom? I don't see how it doesn't continue to slide for at least the next couple of months.

I figured it's time to get out if even Bogleheads are criticizing Vanguard funds. Perhaps I should spend less time hanging out on that forum. It is surreal seeing people there talking about CDs and other conservative ways to save (including building up years of emergency funds). They are not being ...

Good idea. I wonder how they would react if someone were to start a Permanent Portfolio thread. :) There was that huge thread posted around 2009 and a few not long after that, and I recall many Bogleheads looking down on the PP. If you actually read the 2009 thread, they were very open to the PP at...

I know the bogleheads see a 60/40 as conservative these days. It's recency bias though. Go back and read the threads from 2008/2009 timeframe. Everybody saw high stock allocations as too aggressive back then. Now not having a high stock allocation is seen as too conservative. I wouldn't be surprise...

Kriegsspiel wrote: ↑Mon Mar 16, 2020 5:18 pm I say the same thing. The Permanent Portfolio is kind of like a spiced up form of cash.

Exactly.

I assume that you are referring to something like a Vanguard like Money Market account? I've have more faith in Vanguard being able to back their money market funds full of T-bills / government obligations than a bank depending upon the FDIC not running out in a true crisis. Vinny The Vanguard Prim...

I started the transition to PP but my settlement fund was pretty much empty and I was not allowed to exchange the stock or bond ETF for GLD. That will be my next step in the process and then the transition will be complete. I don't have enough in my IRA to purchase enough VUSTX and GLD to balance th...

Post industrial revolution (although the time from 1984-present is the one most people extrapolate into the future, and it's also the highest returning period in history, are odds greater that this keeps up or underperforms expectations?). Any time prior bonds and stocks tended to return about equa...

there is a saying, a penny saved is a penny earned and while that is true , the fact is it will always stay a penny without good compounding ..actually it will stay less then a penny with inflation and taxes . Especially if the fed goes to negative rates, which is a very realistic possibility. now ...

Do keep in mind though that there is no reason stocks have to perform better than any other asset class. Matter of fact, it's still a fairly recent phenomenon history wise that stocks have out performed bonds. For most of history stocks and bonds pretty much returned even. What do you mean by recen...

in the mean time 100% equities in retirement , over the 119 30 year cycles we have had has actually had as high a success rate for the most part as 50/50 .... the reason being the higher up years cushion spending in the down years .... long term equities may be volatile but diversified funds have n...

In his book The (Mis)Behavior of Markets , the famous mathematician Benoit Mandelbrot showed why he thought stocks are far, far riskier than most people think, and as a result he said that most people should have much less exposure to them. That statement by Mandelbrot is actually one reason why I ...

Turbo, sorry if I missed it, but why do you want to change your 60/40 to the PP? Just curious as you seem to have concerns about at least one of the assets. Good question. The market has lost roughly 25% in a very short amount of time. That means I'm down roughly 15%. As Harry Brown stated, nobody ...

Do they only offer these target date funds? That would be strange. Most employers offer individual funds as well for those that want to control their own allocation. It is pretty standard to default people to the target date funds. My employer does that on the default, but we also have Fidelity ind...

Heck, I would have a lot more qualms about buying bonds than gold right now. Wait, that probably isn’t helpful.... ;) Why is that? I am finding that my TLT/VUSTX holdings are a good counter to the falling stocks as of late. Do you think the LT treasuries are peaking? They are at the all time high, ...

Thanks for the ideas. I am thinking that I will convert half of it (along with anything new contributed) to the PP and leave the other half 60/40 and then slowly DCA it. How do you all handle your 401K? I will probably leave mine at 60/40 since there are such limited options (no LT treasuries, gold...

Heck, I would have a lot more qualms about buying bonds than gold right now. Wait, that probably isn’t helpful.... ;) Why is that? I am finding that my TLT/VUSTX holdings are a good counter to the falling stocks as of late. Do you think the LT treasuries are peaking? People have been thinking LTT's...

I personally include my 401k. I just hold LTT's and gold in my IRA and taxable. I also do have some bond holdings in my 401k, but I just use total bond market fund as a proxy for the barbell. I prefer the barbell, but you gotta do what you gotta do. Total bond market over the long haul performs ver...

Smith1776 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:05 pm Wow. Even gold and long bonds haven't been spared recently.

The only thing holding steady is good ol' cash.

Noticed that! I recall there was a similar stretch in 2008.

I Shrugged wrote: ↑Tue Mar 10, 2020 2:57 pm Heck, I would have a lot more qualms about buying bonds than gold right now.
Wait, that probably isn’t helpful....

Why is that? I am finding that my TLT/VUSTX holdings are a good counter to the falling stocks as of late. Do you think the LT treasuries are peaking?

Thanks for the ideas. I am thinking that I will convert half of it (along with anything new contributed) to the PP and leave the other half 60/40 and then slowly DCA it. How do you all handle your 401K? I will probably leave mine at 60/40 since there are such limited options (no LT treasuries, gold ...

I have a Bogleheads portfolio for my Roth IRA which is 60% stocks (VTSAX) and 40% bonds (VBTLX). Looking to transition to a Permanent Portfolio but it is looking like we're close to peak gold as it's currently at $1500 or so. Something tells me it may not be a good idea to put too much into a gold E...