Search found 1052 matches

by Gosso
Tue Jan 13, 2015 6:53 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Will Stocks Defy History?
Replies: 5
Views: 5995

Will Stocks Defy History?

by Gosso
Mon Jan 12, 2015 6:38 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Has the PP Ever Suffered a -25% Nominal MaxDD?
Replies: 21
Views: 12027

Re: Has the PP Ever Suffered a -25% Nominal MaxDD?

So if annual rebalancing was done on May 31 rather than Dec 31 then the PP did indeed experience a -25% nominal drawdown.  However it was extremely brief and was mainly the result of gold spiking 38% in only 6 days at the parabolic top in January 1980. So the draw down was due to a blow off spike u...
by Gosso
Mon Jan 12, 2015 11:30 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Has the PP Ever Suffered a -25% Nominal MaxDD?
Replies: 21
Views: 12027

Re: Has the PP Ever Suffered a -25% Nominal MaxDD?

I have some old daily data (it is complete up to May 2013), but it should shed some more light on the PP drawdowns: [img width=600]http://i57.tinypic.com/6pycfc.png[/img] So if annual rebalancing was done on May 31 rather than Dec 31 then the PP did indeed experience a -25% nominal drawdown.  Howeve...
by Gosso
Sun Jan 11, 2015 10:55 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Has the PP Ever Suffered a -25% Nominal MaxDD?
Replies: 21
Views: 12027

Re: Has the PP Ever Suffered a -25% Nominal MaxDD?

Here are my results for the real and nominal drawdowns for the PP and 60/40: [img width=600]http://i62.tinypic.com/2ez1vet.png[/img] (Click to enlarge) So drawdowns measured at the end of month in nominal terms hasn't dropped below -13% since April 1, 1968 (assuming my data is correct, it might not ...
by Gosso
Fri Jan 09, 2015 9:17 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: LEAPS PP
Replies: 160
Views: 73503

Re: LEAPS PP

Congrats, Adam! One thing to keep in mind is that the leverage for at-the-money Jan '17 options on SPY, GLD, and TLT is roughly 5.0x, 4.6x, and 8.1x, respectively.  So to balance the leverage you'd need to go in-the-money a bit for TLT, or lower your weighting of TLT options.  Otherwise the LEAP PP...
by Gosso
Fri Jan 09, 2015 12:20 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Is The PP Good For Investing?
Replies: 59
Views: 32204

Re: Is The PP Good For Investing?

MachineGhost wrote: Besides Gosso's chart shows 1980 is almost -25% in real terms which blows away -25% in nominal.
I think you got that flipped around, if inflation is 5% and the nominal drawdown is -25% then the real drawdown would be -30%.  So drawdowns in real terms look worse.
by Gosso
Fri Jan 09, 2015 10:20 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Is The PP Good For Investing?
Replies: 59
Views: 32204

Re: Is The PP Good For Investing?

Here are my results for the inflation-adjusted drawdowns of the PP and 60/40:

Image

It's interesting that the drawdown for the PP exceeded the 60/40 drawdown in 2013, which is a rare event.

And also, welcome back MT!
by Gosso
Thu Jan 08, 2015 11:26 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: LEAPS PP
Replies: 160
Views: 73503

Re: LEAPS PP

This multiple changes, correct? Yep, it is dependent on the implied volatility (IV), but in general TLT will have a lower IV so it will provide more leverage per dollar invested. Do you think that in 2013 (the numbers are a few posts back) if I would have adjusted the weightings, I would have had a...
by Gosso
Thu Jan 08, 2015 9:48 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: LEAPS PP
Replies: 160
Views: 73503

Re: LEAPS PP

Congrats, Adam! One thing to keep in mind is that the leverage for at-the-money Jan '17 options on SPY, GLD, and TLT is roughly 5.0x, 4.6x, and 8.1x, respectively.  So to balance the leverage you'd need to go in-the-money a bit for TLT, or lower your weighting of TLT options.  Otherwise the LEAP PP ...
by Gosso
Thu Jan 08, 2015 7:05 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Counter party risk on leveraged ETFs
Replies: 4
Views: 3132

Re: Counter party risk on leveraged ETFs

Many of Direxion's levered ETFs began trading in November 2008, and continued to perform as expected (3x the daily return) during the financial crisis.  So they have been battle-tested.
by Gosso
Fri Jan 02, 2015 1:47 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 2014 PP performance
Replies: 38
Views: 20384

Re: 2014 PP performance

Hmmm, my numbers are quite different.  Using the adjusted closing prices (includes dividends) from Yahoo! Finance I get the following: Stocks (XIU) +11.9%    ((21.47 / 19.18) - 1) Gold (IGT)    +7.8% Bonds (ZFL) +17.4% Cash (ZFS)  +2.3% Canadian 4x25 PP +9.85% (includes dividends and interest) Unhe...
by Gosso
Fri Jan 02, 2015 12:26 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 2014 PP performance
Replies: 38
Views: 20384

Re: 2014 PP performance

Since I hold the Canadian PP, I thought I'd share how our results differ from what you guys had in 2014. Stocks: +8.1% Bonds: +11.5% Gold: +4.4% Cash: +0.1% Total: +6.0% As you can see the resource heavy Canadian stock market got hit hard by the pull back in oil price. However that exit of foreign ...
by Gosso
Thu Jan 01, 2015 10:55 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 2014 PP performance
Replies: 38
Views: 20384

Re: 2014 PP performance

Gosso - I must just be really really bad at math?  I'm calculating by subtracting my overall portfolio's ending value from teh starting value - dividing the difference by the starting value and multiplying by 100.  I'm getting 8.53% for my return.  I know there's differences between FSTVX vs SPY an...
by Gosso
Thu Jan 01, 2015 10:21 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 2014 PP performance
Replies: 38
Views: 20384

Re: 2014 PP performance

Ok, I back tested my funds on Yahoo Finance - my original numbers were not starting at the beginning of the year so I did a little better than I thought - 7.98% return.  Still curious where the discrepancy is coming from though.  Did my individual funds really under perform by that much?  My funds ...
by Gosso
Tue Dec 16, 2014 12:16 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: End-of-year GAIN capturing?
Replies: 17
Views: 6842

Re: End-of-year GAIN capturing?

Gosso, I think the problem there would be that your brokerage would report to the IRS the sale from the lower cost basis.  And then you'd have an argument with the IRS you wouldn't want to have.  So you'd need to somehow convince your broker to adjust your cost basis.  I'm 99% sure they'll tell you...
by Gosso
Mon Dec 15, 2014 2:06 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: End-of-year GAIN capturing?
Replies: 17
Views: 6842

Re: End-of-year GAIN capturing?

Do the shares actually need to be sold and repurchased, or can that step be avoided and simply adjust the average cost basis to reflect a sale and capital gain?  It would be nice to avoid two commissions and the spread.
by Gosso
Mon Dec 15, 2014 10:39 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Mebane Faber's new ETF
Replies: 8
Views: 4838

Re: Mebane Faber's new ETF

Faber mentioned in an interview (can't remember which one) that GAA will funnel a percentage of its funds into the other Cambria ETFs which are money makers.  He claimed that once GAA is over $100 million then it will become profitable.
by Gosso
Tue Dec 09, 2014 3:55 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: The Bond Dream Room
Replies: 554
Views: 359647

Re: The Bond Dream Room

http://static3.businessinsider.com/image/54876e486da811701511bdc8-830-589/screen%20shot%202014-12-09%20at%204.48.13%20pm.png http://www.businessinsider.com/jeffrey-gundlach-webcast-december-9-2014-12 [quote=Jeff Gundlach] "It's almost unthinkable that I would want German bonds instead of US bonds."...
by Gosso
Sat Dec 06, 2014 1:16 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: SHY Loses A Year's Worth Of Gains In One Day
Replies: 5
Views: 6198

Re: SHY Loses A Year's Worth Of Gains In One Day

If CD's were priced daily then they would see the same price swings as a short term bond with similar duration. And a bond fund or ETF is the equivalent of holding a bond with a constant term and duration.  From a total return and risk (ie maintaining a constant duration) perspective there is no dif...
by Gosso
Thu Dec 04, 2014 12:16 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Figuring Out Religion
Replies: 4052
Views: 1385089

Re: Figuring Out Religion

Was C.S. Lewis a universalist? The notion that Christianity is to be approached in the same manner as other mythologies would become the underlying principle of Lewis’s universalism, as well as providing an answer to the dilemma of the possible salvation of the Pagans. If the mythologies, rather tha...
by Gosso
Mon Dec 01, 2014 8:45 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The Technical State of Gold
Replies: 12
Views: 6003

Re: The Technical State of Gold

The rave guy looks like the younger and crazier brother of the dude in your avatar, Gosso. ;) Haha, that sounds like it could be a great idea for an episode of Community.  (By the way the raving dude is Dean Pelton from Community, and my avatar is Bill Murray from Life Aquatic). Well back to the te...
by Gosso
Fri Nov 21, 2014 11:03 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold Market Manipulation is a Myth
Replies: 50
Views: 25938

Re: Gold Market Manipulation is a Myth

point being libor is widely accepted...long term market manipulation. do those who deny gold market manip also deny that libor was a scandal and the fines paid were unjust? There is no doubt they attempted to move LIBOR up or down to suit their fancy, but the question is how much of an impact did t...
by Gosso
Fri Nov 21, 2014 4:46 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The Technical State of Gold
Replies: 12
Views: 6003

Re: The Technical State of Gold

Cool!  A rave thread!  I'll get the E and the foam machine.  ;D

Image
by Gosso
Fri Nov 21, 2014 1:16 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold Market Manipulation is a Myth
Replies: 50
Views: 25938

Re: Gold Market Manipulation is a Myth

jumping in here...curious your views on the Libor scandal....do you also deny that being a real scandal? I don't know much about it.  It seems that LIBOR has always been a made up number, since it is based on a phone survey of the London banks rather than actual transactions.  I was trying to do a ...
by Gosso
Thu Nov 20, 2014 7:56 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold Market Manipulation is a Myth
Replies: 50
Views: 25938

Re: Gold Market Manipulation is a Myth

Here's an article from Bloomberg regarding the aluminum merry-go-round:  http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-11-20/the-goldman-sachs-aluminum-conspiracy-was-pretty-silly After reading that I was reminded of Hanlon's razor : "Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stup...