Search found 516 matches

by Kevin K.
Thu Oct 21, 2021 5:50 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: A worthwhile read for all PP'ers
Replies: 88
Views: 31993

Re: A worthwhile read for all PP'ers

flyingpylon wrote: Thu Oct 21, 2021 3:39 pm Umm... Kevin, was that you? ;D

2021-10-21_16-34-24.png
Yeah it was me, but any resemblance to Samuel L. Jackson is purely coincidental. ;)
by Kevin K.
Thu Oct 21, 2021 9:29 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: A worthwhile read for all PP'ers
Replies: 88
Views: 31993

Re: A worthwhile read for all PP'ers

So what's up for discussion here is whether half of the PP's assets need to be modified or replaced in light of current realities. Ok. Replaced with what? Crypto sure looks tempting right now. I have a small amount in ETHE (Grayscale Ethereum) that swings up and down but currently is at 100% profit...
by Kevin K.
Wed Oct 20, 2021 6:01 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: A worthwhile read for all PP'ers
Replies: 88
Views: 31993

Re: A worthwhile read for all PP'ers

I really didn't intend this to turn into yet another Bitcoin thread. We've had enough of those. The point of the article isn't to suggest Bitcoin as a replacement for gold but rather to suggest that interest in BC and other cryptos has had and will likely continue to have significant effects on the ...
by Kevin K.
Wed Oct 20, 2021 12:43 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: A worthwhile read for all PP'ers
Replies: 88
Views: 31993

Re: A worthwhile read for all PP'ers

Mr. Roche isn't recommending Bitcoin and doesn't use any alternative assets in his newly-launched Disciplined Fund ETF. Here's a link to the site for it. I find the countercylical approach intriguing. Very much a "next-gen" approach to buy-and-hold and rebalancing: https://disciplinefunds....
by Kevin K.
Wed Oct 20, 2021 12:24 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: A worthwhile read for all PP'ers
Replies: 88
Views: 31993

Re: A worthwhile read for all PP'ers

After all, all crypto is endogenous in the sense that it is literally created from nothing and can be borrowed into existence in exactly the same way that modern banks create synthetic “dollars” from nothing when they make loans. A “fractionally reserved” Bitcoin system with endogenous lending coul...
by Kevin K.
Wed Oct 20, 2021 10:25 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: A worthwhile read for all PP'ers
Replies: 88
Views: 31993

A worthwhile read for all PP'ers

gizmo_rat posted this in the gold sub-forum but I think it's a worthwhile if not essential read for all PP'ers so thought I'd repost it here: https://www.pragcap.com/did-bitcoin-kill-golds-monetary-utility/ To be clear, this guy is NOT a Bitcoin shill but rather a very knowledgeable finance guy who'...
by Kevin K.
Wed Oct 20, 2021 10:09 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Did Bitcoin Kill Gold’s Monetary Utility?
Replies: 86
Views: 22753

Re: Did Bitcoin Kill Gold’s Monetary Utility?

Thanks for posting this link! I went pretty far down the rabbit hole on Cullen's site after reading this. His Disciplined Fund ETF is fascinating. Getting back to the post in question, I think the questions he raises about crypto possibly siphoning off a lot of the interest in, and usurping the role...
by Kevin K.
Mon Oct 18, 2021 5:40 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: For those using the PP or GB in retirement
Replies: 42
Views: 12220

Re: For those using the PP or GB in retirement

I recently paid for a portfolio second opinion done by an FA who's a protégé of the well-known investment author Rick Ferri. I knew of course that he was a Boglehead through-and-through but the review ended up being worth the price anyway … I think about doing that sometimes. Maybe that Allan Roth ...
by Kevin K.
Mon Oct 18, 2021 2:28 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: For those using the PP or GB in retirement
Replies: 42
Views: 12220

Re: For those using the PP or GB in retirement

Here’s the FA I used. Found him through Rick Ferri who offers the same thing but being a pretty famous writer is booked into 2022. I think many DIY folks who like me would never pay a % of assets or high fixed fee could benefit from hiring someone like Jon once just for an impartial double-check. ht...
by Kevin K.
Mon Oct 18, 2021 11:52 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: For those using the PP or GB in retirement
Replies: 42
Views: 12220

Re: For those using the PP or GB in retirement

Thanks everyone for your thoughtful comments - and nice to see your name pop up again mathjak107! Yeah I often recall J.M. Lawson aka "Medium Tex"'s wry comment about Treasury bonds being "the best horse at the glue factory." That's kind of how I feel about all of these super-def...
by Kevin K.
Mon Oct 18, 2021 9:50 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: For those using the PP or GB in retirement
Replies: 42
Views: 12220

For those using the PP or GB in retirement

Thought I'd take advantage of the hive mind here to get some thoughts from folks who are either already retired and using these portfolios or nearly so and planning to. As we know a lot of the appeal of the PP has been its steady returns and low and shallow drawdowns in pretty all market conditions....
by Kevin K.
Thu Oct 07, 2021 10:21 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP-like alternative portfolio for conservative retiree
Replies: 26
Views: 7047

Re: PP-like alternative portfolio for conservative retiree

Tyler, Can you generate the same chart using Wellesley and a pinch of gold say 10-20%? As it happens, Tyler did just that awhile ago in response to a thread I started about possibly using Wellesley as one's variable portfolio. Here's the link: https://www.gyroscopicinvesting.com/forum/viewtopic.php...
by Kevin K.
Wed Oct 06, 2021 7:42 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP-like alternative portfolio for conservative retiree
Replies: 26
Views: 7047

Re: PP-like alternative portfolio for conservative retiree

Good suggestions all around. Thanks very much!
by Kevin K.
Wed Oct 06, 2021 5:16 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP-like alternative portfolio for conservative retiree
Replies: 26
Views: 7047

PP-like alternative portfolio for conservative retiree

I guess this post could also have been titled "what would you invest in if you couldn't do the PP?" I have a retired friend who lives mostly on social security but also wants to be able to withdraw 3-4% a year from their nest egg. They're risk-averse and couldn't handle a deep or long-last...
by Kevin K.
Tue Sep 14, 2021 4:29 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Vanguard recommends commodities to combat sudden inflation
Replies: 1
Views: 1452

Vanguard recommends commodities to combat sudden inflation

Interesting short read. Guess we should expect the write-up on the virtues of gold bullion next month? ;)

https://advisors.vanguard.com/insights/ ... 6632010697
by Kevin K.
Tue Sep 07, 2021 9:43 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Excellent primer on iBonds vs. TIPS
Replies: 1
Views: 1625

Excellent primer on iBonds vs. TIPS

Really good post today on the TipsWatch blog about the differences between iBonds and TIPS and why the former are far superior in today's wacky investing environment. https://tipswatch.com/2021/09/07/i-bonds-vs-tips-whats-the-best-bet-for-inflation-protection/ Vis-a-vis the GB and/or PP I personally...
by Kevin K.
Fri Jul 16, 2021 7:29 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Withdrawal rates and size of nest egg needed in current negative real interest rate world
Replies: 37
Views: 10752

Re: Withdrawal rates and size of nest egg needed in current negative real interest rate world

It seems to me that iBonds are perfect to use as part of the cash allocation. No downside to them other than the paltry 10K per person annual purchase limit. THE go-to site on TIPS and iBonds is Tipswatch, and they've had an excellent series of posts in the past couple of weeks comparing the perform...
by Kevin K.
Fri Jul 16, 2021 1:53 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Russian girl looking for a man with money
Replies: 23
Views: 7828

Re: Russian girl looking for a man with money

Wrong site honey. The address you want is:

1100 S. Ocean Blvd., Palm Beach, Florida, United States

or just Google "Donald Trump" (or ask Rudy Giuliani for help).
by Kevin K.
Wed Jun 30, 2021 10:11 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Hello old friends
Replies: 40
Views: 8779

Re: Hello old friends

It seems to me that Desert’s portfolio, which I understand to be a variant of the Larry Swedroe “Larry” portfolio that incorporates Desert’s deep understanding of Harry Browne’s work, ought to be compared to both the Larry and PP but also the Golden Butterfly, Wellesley, Vanguard Target Retirement I...
by Kevin K.
Sun Jun 13, 2021 11:09 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Best gold deal out there
Replies: 14
Views: 5642

Re: Best gold deal out there

You may want to consider Bullionvault if holding physical gold rather than an ETF is essential. Nothing but good experience with them and they check all your boxes plus Harry Browne's recommendation to hold some assets outside your home country. Total costs (buying commission plus storage) very comp...
by Kevin K.
Fri Jun 11, 2021 10:24 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Withdrawal rates and size of nest egg needed in current negative real interest rate world
Replies: 37
Views: 10752

Re: Withdrawal rates and size of nest egg needed in current negative real interest rate world

Negative real interest rates to this degree (> 4%) are almost unprecedented in the post gold era, but we can look to the 1970s when real rates were negative (2-3%) and occasionally higher for short periods of time. The answer was that the PP did incredibly well in the 1970s because gold responded v...
by Kevin K.
Tue Jun 08, 2021 9:21 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: The 20 basis point per year rule-of-thumb
Replies: 18
Views: 4619

The 20 basis point per year rule-of-thumb

Since there are several folks who post on these forums with a far better understanding of the bond market than I have I'm curious to hear your thoughts on the rule-of-thumb offered by Larry Swedroe that investors should generally look for an additional 20 basis points of yield for each additional ye...
by Kevin K.
Mon Jun 07, 2021 10:53 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Historical Periods of High Inflation: Interest Rates?
Replies: 7
Views: 3196

Re: Historical Periods of High Inflation: Interest Rates?

This worthwhile post about measuring inflation and personal experience of it just arrive in my email inbox this morning (it's from one of the few finance/ER blogs I follow regularly): https://www.caniretireyet.com/personal-inflation-rate/ I think it's a good complement to D1984's insightful post abo...
by Kevin K.
Sun Jun 06, 2021 11:34 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Withdrawal rates and size of nest egg needed in current negative real interest rate world
Replies: 37
Views: 10752

Re: Withdrawal rates and size of nest egg needed in current negative real interest rate world

It's great to see your name reappear on the forum ahrunforthehills! Your posts have been some of the best I've ever read here. Obviously it's not just the PP but the whole universe of low or reduced "fat tails" portfolios intended for retirees and others who can't handle deep or protracted...
by Kevin K.
Sat Jun 05, 2021 10:41 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Does PP Only Work In Times of Declining Bond Yields?
Replies: 35
Views: 13902

Re: Does PP Only Work In Times of Declining Bond Yields?

A few comments I posted in a different discussion a few weeks ago regarding rising rates and potential impact on the PP. Some comments: 1. You constantly say that you think the kryptonite for the PP is rising rates. Maybe it will be, maybe it won't. But going to portfoliovisualizer or portfoliochar...