I agree with most of your post.  Keep in mind that there is little difference between a barbell (short and long) and bullet (intermediate) bond allocations as long as the overall bond duration is roughly the same.  I personally think most PPers would be less stressed with intermediate bonds, but I d...

Desert, Can you make a case for deflation? Do you think it's a possibility and what do you think would happen? I realize you might not care, and that's fine. If you state you hold bonds for deflation I think you should be able to state there is some possibility of it and how the bonds would help yo...

Berserk in dollar terms. Think in purchasing power terms. The HBPP puts double the purchasing power in government bonds as it does gold, regardless of interest rates and government debt levels. Real interest rates aren't all that far from historic levels.  And if we looked at it after-tax, then we'...

Try this:

http://www.pfin.ca/canadianfixedincome/Default.aspx

mgtow, I wouldn't use real return bonds, since during a deflation they will return less than their face value.  See HERE .  From what I have read this doesn't apply to US TIPS. I'd also not use a preferred shares ETF, and simply go with a market cap weighted ETF, like XIU. I had never heard of MNT b...

PS, The most palatable way to get "a buzz on" that I can think of is to mix peach schnapps with orange juice.  The fruit flavors tend to overwhelm the taste of alcohol.  I'd go 1 part schnapps and 4 parts OJ, which would give you an alcohol content of around 5% (same as beer, assuming the...

PS, The most palatable way to get "a buzz on" that I can think of is to mix peach schnapps with orange juice.  The fruit flavors tend to overwhelm the taste of alcohol.  I'd go 1 part schnapps and 4 parts OJ, which would give you an alcohol content of around 5% (same as beer, assuming the ...

The high oil prices of 1980 were not real, and Reagan knew it.  They were being caused by the weakness of the U.S. dollar, which had lost 94% of its value in terms of gold between 1969 and 1980. Isn't this highly misleading.  I mean T-Bills were paying on average 1% above inflation over this period...

This is what my data shows between 1995 and 2014:

[img width=400]http://i57.tinypic.com/2d9ojmo.jpg[/img]
Click to enlarge

I'd hate to burst anyone's bubble, but there is something funky with the charts in the linked website.  There is no way the PP outperformed a 60/40 between 1995-2000.  My data shows the PP had a real CAGR of 7%, while the 60/40 had a real CAGR of 17%, between Jan 1995 and Dec 1999. I looked quickly ...

Gosso, Thank you so much for your response.  Very informative!  This puts my mind more at ease.  Now my only remaining question is entry point.  I have a really good knack at buying stuff that then falls in value soon after  (Nortel, XBB, Barrick,  Gold when it was $1850) I am currently 90% cash, 1...

Thanks for the thoughtful responses, Mountaineer, Gosso, and ns3. You've given me a lot of food for thought. Even if Hell is of man's own making--locked from the inside, as C.S. Lewis said--I think this question remains: If a soul is not saved, and it never will be, why keep it around for all etern...

I'm not sure about the real return bonds, but as long as they are long-term then it's probably okay, unless you're worried about the Canadian government manipulating the CPI.  Otherwise I'm fine with the rest of that Canadian PP. In 2008 the Canadian dollar tanked by about 20%.  This resulted in the...

I think it's possible everyone will be saved (in this life or the next), but they must accept it.  I'm pretty well convinced from the Bible that everyone will be saved eventually. Lots of scriptures speak to this and you can weigh them all side by side for yourself with the help of Google - just li...

Decay is also a function of volatility.  For example, if GLD goes down 10%, then up 10%, repeated every day, you will have a lot of decay.  If it just goes down .00001% every day, you will have no decay. edit:  so my point is maybe daily volatility has been relatively low. I agree that it is all ab...

Mountaineer & Xan,

Thanks guys.  You have given me a nice contrast to my current opinion, and I think I understand the debate a bit better.

Desert, Thanks for the link.  For the most part I agree with Tullian.  There is a great risk in thinking that we can only please God by good works/behavior.  So we then push Christ away and think we can do everything on our own.  This is what Jesus warned the Pharisees of. But in my mind I think Jes...

Xan, That was a great summary!  And just to be clear I do believe that church and other christians play an important part of the christian life, but it doesn't have to be a priority for someone kicking the tires of Christianity, IMO.  C.S. Lewis describes the new person as entering the hallway of me...

I think if you really are worried that you don't believe, then you in fact do.  If you didn't you wouldn't be worried. That might be so, but in my case I would love to be able to believe in something....but I am filled with doubt regarding everything. If I am really honest with myself I must say th...

But it seems to me that a big part of the Gospels consists of Jesus performing miracles and other supernatural acts, chief among them being born to a virgin and later rising from the dead.  If Christ really demanded faith, what was the point of all of the miracles? I'll admit that the miracles don'...

I'm not sure if this is authentic, but even if it's not it is still a valid criticism of The Age of Reason : [quote=Benjamin Franklin] I have read your manuscript with some attention. By the argument it contains against a particular Providence, though you allow a general Providence, you strike at th...

GLD has broken through it's 200-day moving average.  It will be interesting to see if GLD holds onto it.  This could be the beginning of a beautiful run.

I think it has to do with rebalancing.  The 2x PP triggered a rebalance after 2010 & 2011, but not after 2012.  At the beginning of 2013, the stock portion was just under 30% of the portfolio so it was overweight.  With the strong year in stocks, it pulled the other assets up.  By the end of 20...

I hear this all the time how Jesus spoke more about hell than he spoke about heaven but I don't see one single scripture in the Bible where Jesus clearly warned us about the Christian view of hell as a place of eternal punishment for non-believers. Not once. And if that was the case why would he te...

I tried this myself, but the more metaphorically I started to see things, the less interest the stories held. Even the metaphors I was trying to read into them contradicted each other. I think a big problem with Judeo-Christian religions for me is that none of the stories have ever had even a shred...