Search found 430 matches

by seajay
Wed Sep 27, 2023 11:25 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: ARM (chip designer)
Replies: 19
Views: 40605

Re: ARM (chip designer)

Would have thought that the public listing was more a case of sell high for the prior owners, market peak, rather than potential significant upside/growth. I didn’t address this earlier. From what I’ve read, the former owners will have an even bigger stake now than they had before the IPO. I’ll see...
by seajay
Wed Sep 27, 2023 11:06 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: TLT cracks $90
Replies: 43
Views: 69133

Re: TLT cracks $90

Increasingly leaning towards not lending ... no bonds nor cash deposits, the interest paid is often too low, more so after the taxman takes a slice. Swap the bond risk (25% in each of STT/LTT) over to the stock side (25/25 stock/hard-cash). Comparing historic 50/25/25 stock/PM/hard-cash to that of t...
by seajay
Wed Sep 20, 2023 1:51 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: ARM (chip designer)
Replies: 19
Views: 40605

Re: ARM (chip designer)

Isn't ARM ... Advanced, Reduced instruction set computer (RISC), Machines already pretty much within everything electronic nowadays. From your phone, TV, TV remote controller, washing machine, vacuum cleaner, central heating controller, burglar alarm ...etc. Would have thought that the public listin...
by seajay
Wed Sep 20, 2023 8:16 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: What happens to I-bonds if rates plummet again
Replies: 46
Views: 41216

Re: What happens to I-bonds if rates plummet again

^ thanks for update. Looks like ill be forced into Canada's MAID https://old.reddit.com/r/Futurology/comments/yxayan/canada_will_soon_allow_medically_assisted_dying/?sort=controversial Lived with grandma during her last 10 years. what TV narratives dont tell you is its not simply "memory loss" like...
by seajay
Wed Sep 20, 2023 7:07 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Mistakes
Replies: 43
Views: 95409

Re: PP Mistakes

The PP's Cash/LTT barbell does make the PP somewhat bond heavy. A alternative is thirds each stock/bond/gold. Thirds TSM/10 year Treasury's/Gold instead of 25% each TSM/STT/LTT/gold PV For non-US investors, combine that with three way currency diversification, third domestic ITT, third US$ fiat curr...
by seajay
Tue Sep 19, 2023 11:45 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Mistakes
Replies: 43
Views: 95409

Re: PP Mistakes

THIS TIME IS DIFFERENT have been the most costliest words to bet on in the english language Mathjak, you're fond of saying that, but isn't it pretty clear that the outperformance of US equities over the past century or so has been the weird outlier? Why aren't the people who plan on that outperform...
by seajay
Tue Sep 19, 2023 11:24 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Mistakes
Replies: 43
Views: 95409

Re: PP Mistakes

1980 was a great start year for stocks, a (very) bad start year for gold. That aside and start 1980 with 50/50 stock/gold, where you left that as-is but looked to deploy gold into stock when stocks dipped, and at the end of 1987 might have been selected as the time to do that. Stocks and gold tend t...
by seajay
Mon Sep 18, 2023 12:00 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: Putin Invades Ukraine II
Replies: 1160
Views: 827829

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Do not know how accurate or reliable this source is: https://news.yahoo.com/national-resistance-center-russia-plans-002746713.html National Resistance Center: Russia plans to bring North Korean workers to occupied Ukraine Rachel Amran Sun, September 17, 2023 at 8:27 PM EDT·1 min read Mine sweepers ...
by seajay
Sun Sep 17, 2023 11:53 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: I Thought Gold Would Fare Better in 2022-23
Replies: 63
Views: 100254

Re: I Thought Gold Would Fare Better in 2022-23

https://www.usfunds.com/resource/central-banks-are-buying-gold-at-a-record-pace-so-far-in-2023/ This is after record purchases in 2022. Are there any reasons to explain these purchases besides them knowing something we don’t know? Mostly Russia, China, Turkey, Singapore. Perhaps preferring to buy g...
by seajay
Sun Sep 17, 2023 11:42 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Mistakes
Replies: 43
Views: 95409

Re: PP Mistakes

If you go back to 1980, a $10k investment in stocks would be worth over $1 million now. PP would be $200k and ST Treasuries $99k. So what you are telling me that after finally graduating college in 1978 (with masters at age 27) and had saved my first $1,000 in 1979 and was agonizing what to do with...
by seajay
Sat Sep 16, 2023 7:58 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: I Thought Gold Would Fare Better in 2022-23
Replies: 63
Views: 100254

Re: I Thought Gold Would Fare Better in 2022-23

I think gold will still have relevance in the decades to come. I don't see Bitcoin being a threat to gold so much as it is a complement. Gold has long stood alongside silver and copper, as an example. I think Bitcoin and maybe a couple other cryptocurrencies have simply enlarged our set of viable o...
by seajay
Tue Sep 12, 2023 10:15 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Mistakes
Replies: 43
Views: 95409

Re: PP Mistakes

I regret buying long bonds near the top in the last 2-3 years, hoping that an agnostic dollar cost averaging approach would serve me well in the long run. I have become somewhat less purist and time some of my purchases , preferring to accumulate cash to 35% allocation then spread it around , typic...
by seajay
Sat Sep 09, 2023 5:41 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Physical + Bullionvault + Paxos combo primer
Replies: 19
Views: 6840

Re: Physical + Bullionvault + Paxos combo primer

When I backtest I assume a investor would have held T-Bills instead of gold pre 1934, silver between 1934 and 1975, gold since 1976.
by seajay
Thu Sep 07, 2023 11:25 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Physical + Bullionvault + Paxos combo primer
Replies: 19
Views: 6840

Re: Physical + Bullionvault + Paxos combo primer

Here are some of my notes/primer that I thought I'd share (no guarantee as to the accuracy) ... Great write up. 8) It's also nice to see you posting about gold and not being inundated with senseless rubbish from that NiceUnparticularMan cretin. ::) Thanks. I'm on my third and final warning on Bogle...
by seajay
Thu Sep 07, 2023 11:16 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Physical + Bullionvault + Paxos combo primer
Replies: 19
Views: 6840

Re: Physical + Bullionvault + Paxos combo primer

One thing I am noticing is that when compared to other sources, PAXG in Pounds does seem to be priced lower than spot prices. StoneX that Paxos use as their partner for live streaming prices quote much the same as other sources/dealers, whilst they are all around 1% higher than the indicative price ...
by seajay
Thu Sep 07, 2023 10:57 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Physical + Bullionvault + Paxos combo primer
Replies: 19
Views: 6840

Physical + Bullionvault + Paxos combo primer

Here are some of my notes/primer that I thought I'd share (no guarantee as to the accuracy) One of the most liquid assets on the planet, gold is bought and sold in staggering amounts each day in trading hubs around the world. In 2020 during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic the daily gold exchange...
by seajay
Mon Sep 04, 2023 8:27 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: What happens to I-bonds if rates plummet again
Replies: 46
Views: 41216

Re: What happens to I-bonds if rates plummet again

seajay, thanks very much for telling us about your experience. I'm hopefully a ways from dealing with this kind of thing, but it's helpful to begin thinking about it. Like Sophie, I foresee that when my time may come that siblings would just farm me off into a care/nursing home and originally with ...
by seajay
Mon Sep 04, 2023 7:19 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: BTC in the PP
Replies: 230
Views: 111204

Re: Gold (PAXG) lending at 7% rate

I see recent Nexo quotes for lending PAXG (gold) at 7%, staking at 5% (similar to lending, but where you lend to the 'system' rather than a individual, as I understand it, so 'safer'). Idea : Third 2x stock, two-thirds gold - via PAXG that's lent (at a 7% rate). 4.6% proportioned benefit. Has the s...
by seajay
Mon Sep 04, 2023 1:16 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: What happens to I-bonds if rates plummet again
Replies: 46
Views: 41216

Re: What happens to I-bonds if rates plummet again

Taking time off....yeah, wish I could do more of that. I hadn't been considering assisted living for my mother before, because I know she'll react very badly among other issues, but....it is THE only way to get help when you don't have local family support. I do have a great family, but everyone is...
by seajay
Mon Sep 04, 2023 12:38 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: BTC in the PP
Replies: 230
Views: 111204

Gold (PAXG) lending at 7% rate

I see recent Nexo quotes for lending PAXG (gold) at 7%, staking at 5% (similar to lending, but where you lend to the 'system' rather than a individual, as I understand it, so 'safer'). Idea : Third 2x stock, two-thirds gold - via PAXG that's lent (at a 7% rate). 4.6% proportioned benefit. Has the sa...
by seajay
Sun Sep 03, 2023 10:43 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: I Thought Gold Would Fare Better in 2022-23
Replies: 63
Views: 100254

Re: I Thought Gold Would Fare Better in 2022-23

Back when kbg was posting on here (I wish he still were), he would often point out that gold was getting weaker or stronger mainly due to which way the US Dollar Index was moving. This data only goes back to 1/1/2000 but is probably worth a look: https://en.macromicro.me/collections/45/mm-gold-pric...
by seajay
Sun Aug 27, 2023 11:18 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: What happens to I-bonds if rates plummet again
Replies: 46
Views: 41216

Re: What happens to I-bonds if rates plummet again

Still think the ladders are too complicated I've been thinking the opposite. Over here (UK) and our TIPS (index linked gilts) are pretty much at around 1% real yields across the yield curve https://www.yieldgimp.com/index-linked-gilt-yields Target 2.3% real from that, 33% initial allocation and tha...
by seajay
Thu Aug 17, 2023 9:41 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: TIPS Ladder vs. PP/GB in retirement
Replies: 45
Views: 29878

Re: TIPS Ladder vs. PP/GB in retirement

Commentary on the above article .... https://www.mymoneyblog.com/tips-real-yields-august-2023.html?lctg=9627344 TIPS Real Yields ~2% Across All Maturities; 4.4% Guaranteed 30-Year Withdrawal Rate AUGUST 15, 2023 BY JONATHAN PING 5 COMMENTS In addition, as David Enna of Tipswatch points out, this is...
by seajay
Thu Aug 17, 2023 4:17 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: TIPS Ladder vs. PP/GB in retirement
Replies: 45
Views: 29878

Re: TIPS Ladder vs. PP/GB in retirement

Commentary on the above article .... https://www.mymoneyblog.com/tips-real-yields-august-2023.html?lctg=9627344 TIPS Real Yields ~2% Across All Maturities; 4.4% Guaranteed 30-Year Withdrawal Rate AUGUST 15, 2023 BY JONATHAN PING 5 COMMENTS In addition, as David Enna of Tipswatch points out, this is...
by seajay
Thu Aug 17, 2023 12:14 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3689
Views: 1656546

Re: The GOLD scream room

Looks like they're talking about gold again over at the Knuckleheads forum. I like the calculator posted by Chuck https://www.calculateme.com/precious-metals/gold/value/ I like your avatar dualstow. Kin Kura Pilsner (5%) beer. A intriguing logo of gold (roof) and integrated western KURA. https://i....