The difference between GB and PP-with-SCV is 0.5% on PortfolioCharts. In the graph posted above, it was only 0.34%.

So apparently the conservative (15th percentile) calculation is in the advantage of the GB. Or maybe inflation affects the PP different than the GB.

When I tried the allocation on Portfolio Charts using 25% each SCV,LT,ST,GLD I got a BL-LT return of 5.3% vs 5.5% for the GB and 4.2% for the PP as you mentioned. Its quite interesting that the PP using SCV went from a BL-LT return ranking of 14 to 3 I think 25% each SCV,LT,BIL,GLD goes to 5.0%? I ...

For those interested in a prima facie comparison, here's an SCV tilted Permanent Portfolio (in blue) vs the Golden Butterfly (in red). How is the data you are using different from PortfolioCharts? Here the baseline LT return for the GB is 5.5% versus 4.2% for the PP: https://portfoliocharts.com/por...

I'm implementing it from an EU perspective. If anyone is interested in my list of funds, please let me know.

Yes, I agree with that. If I lived in the US I'd go with TLT :) This is what comes closest in the EU: https://www.ishares.com/uk/individual/en/products/272122/ishares-euro-government-bond-20yr-target-duration-ucits-etf but has just a duration of 19 years. I think you might be confusing maturity and...

all you care about is the total return , not how the fund makes the sausage as they say . if that fund performs it's function in the model how the managers do it is up to them . if rates rise you will see the same losses in a bond ladder as the fund . after a while perfect becomes the enemy of &quo...

1. The only bond with 30-year maturity is https://www.boerse-berlin.com/index.php/Bonds?isin=DE0001102481. It has a 0% coupon and trades at a discount. Does all that matter? I think in theory it doesn't matter what the coupon is -- positive, zero, or negative. All that matters is the volatility. Th...

The logic here is flawed about if rates go up ...selling a bond that lost value because rates went up and losing money is no different then selling a losing stock and buying something you think is better .... a loss is a loss and it does not come back ...you just. Hope what you buy next be it anoth...

Tlt works just fine unless you have zombie apocalypse visions

I'm looking at German bunds because I live in the EU. There are no suitable LT Euro gov bond funds/ETFs available here with a duration above 20 years

zero coupon bonds can be far more volatile ... a 30 year zero coupon bond would be so volatile that it would out weigh everything else . a 10 year zero coupon bond can be as volatile as a 30 year conventional bond Yeah, I was thinking that as well, because of convexity right? So how can I pick a bo...

Personally, I wouldn't buy long term bonds with a 0% coupon. If the US ever gets that low I plan on buying whatever the longest duration is with a positive yield. The opinions on this seem divided here on this forum, but no one can really explain why this time is different. The coupon is not really...

I live in the EU and am going to buy German "bunds" which are available (secondary market) through my broker. I have a few questions: 1. The only bond with 30-year maturity is https://www.boerse-berlin.com/index.php/Bonds?isin=DE0001102481. It has a 0% coupon and trades at a discount. Does...

Hmm pity, I'll keep on looking then. Maybe try to build something simple myself.

Hi! I have read through this thread and I can't get any of the sheets to work, see e.g. a screenshot below of an error in this sheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1y0P_B2faDnCu6QIUVoyQM1k8JTURHPXEeqKvmYjmEN4/edit#gid=17. Does anyone have the latest version of it? It looks awesome and would...

It works the same for us except when the fund itself reinvests the dividend (accumulating fund). So we also got that weird (unfair) thing that when a fund pays a dividend, and I reinvest it a second later it still gets taxed as profit. So that is why I always thought that buying accumulating funds a...

mathjak107 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 12, 2019 5:07 am so you are saying you are not taxed reinvesting dividends until you draw some out ?

Yes indeed

I'm reading the PP book and just read this: You should turn off automatic reinvestments of fund interest and dividends. This feature automatically reinvests dividends and interest paid by your stock and bond funds back into the same fund. Automatic reinvestment of interest and dividends can make it ...