Search found 53 matches
- Mon Mar 09, 2020 5:58 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Stay cool...
- Replies: 39
- Views: 19604
Re: Stay cool...
Yes, thank you Craig (and Harry). I discovered your book about 1-1/2 years ago, and my wife and I started implementing the PP (actually the Golden Butterfly variation - Tyler thank you too!) in March or April last year, and finally finished implementing it for our savings the end of June last year (...
- Mon Mar 09, 2020 12:46 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Golden Butterfly rebalancing bands
- Replies: 26
- Views: 12475
Re: Golden Butterfly rebalancing bands
Thank you both, Tyler and vnatale. One tax planning question I have is what my target should be for asset location in tax deferred, taxable and tax free accounts. Right now we’re stuck with having to put the bulk of our equity investments in my 401k and my wife’s 403b, 401a and 457 ( no gold or trea...
- Sat Mar 07, 2020 9:43 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Can Interest Rates Ever Go Up Again? ZIRP Forever?
- Replies: 11
- Views: 6020
Re: Can Interest Rates Ever Go Up Again? ZIRP Forever?
Thank you pmward. Very helpful indeed.
- Sat Mar 07, 2020 7:30 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Golden Butterfly rebalancing bands
- Replies: 26
- Views: 12475
Re: Golden Butterfly rebalancing bands
...be sure to account for how required minimum distributions may impact your potential tax bracket when running the numbers. ...I'm sure a good fee-only tax adviser would be able to help. Thank you Tyler. It is the RMDs that will keep us in our current tax bracket after retirement. I've not used a ...
- Sat Mar 07, 2020 6:43 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Can Interest Rates Ever Go Up Again? ZIRP Forever?
- Replies: 11
- Views: 6020
Re: Can Interest Rates Ever Go Up Again? ZIRP Forever?
Can deleveraging happen in a higher interest rate environment? Say inflation picks up and is running at 5% per year, but bond yields are suppressed at 4%, is that not a deleveraging? Slowly inflating away the debt? This is the same tactic we used in the post WWII era, and one we are currently using...
- Sat Mar 07, 2020 5:39 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: The Permanent Portfolio May Be About To Break
- Replies: 21
- Views: 15289
Re: The Permanent Portfolio May Be About To Break
Might I introduce you to Tyler's wonderful article on bond convexity: https://portfoliocharts.com/2019/05/27/high-profits-at-low-rates-the-benefits-of-bond-convexity/ Combine that with the fact that gold is highly correlated to negative real interest rates, and the fact that lower risk free rates c...
- Tue Mar 03, 2020 10:25 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Golden Butterfly rebalancing bands
- Replies: 26
- Views: 12475
Re: Golden Butterfly rebalancing bands
Personally I'm not a hard rebalancing band guy, as I prioritize keeping things generally balanced while being smart about tax management. But if you want to use PP-style bands, I think something between +/- 5% and 10% should work just fine. Thank you Tyler. I'm new to this, having had everything in...
- Sat Feb 29, 2020 1:44 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Golden Butterfly rebalancing bands
- Replies: 26
- Views: 12475
Re: Golden Butterfly rebalancing bands
Also, it would be interesting to see what Tyler would recommend as rebalancing bands for the GB.
- Sat Feb 29, 2020 1:42 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Golden Butterfly rebalancing bands
- Replies: 26
- Views: 12475
Re: Golden Butterfly rebalancing bands
Per the quote below, and others from the thread https://www.gyroscopicinvesting.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=9&t=10289 Sophie recommends 30% re-balancing bands [20% plus or minus 30% of 20% (=6%), meaning a range of 14% - 26%]. You might wonder, as I did, why she did not recommend a 40% re-balancin...
- Sun Jan 12, 2020 10:21 pm
- Forum: Other Discussions
- Topic: Golden Butterfly
- Replies: 28
- Views: 10521
Re: Golden Butterfly
WiseOne, please see my more complete original questions at the post by LittleDinghy on Sat Dec 28, 2019 8:43 am. Thank you. I'd really like to more thoroughly understand your reasoning.
- Sat Jan 11, 2020 8:21 pm
- Forum: Other Discussions
- Topic: Golden Butterfly
- Replies: 28
- Views: 10521
Re: Golden Butterfly
I believe WiseOne means "40% bands" for the PP as 0.25 ± 40% (or 0.25 ± 0.10, from 0.35 to 0.15). And "30% bands" for the GB as 0.20 ± 30% (or 0.20 ± 0.06, from 0.26 to 0.14). Yes, I'm confident that is what she meant. However, what I don't understand is her reasoning for using ...
- Sat Jan 11, 2020 5:13 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: 2019 Permanent Portfolio Results
- Replies: 18
- Views: 8916
Re: 2019 Permanent Portfolio Results
Golden Butterfly finally completely invested as of 6/30/19.
Used XIRR (taking into account all contributions) to determine annualized before-tax return, based on 6/30-12/31 performance, of 12.1%.
Used XIRR (taking into account all contributions) to determine annualized before-tax return, based on 6/30-12/31 performance, of 12.1%.
- Sat Dec 28, 2019 8:43 am
- Forum: Other Discussions
- Topic: Golden Butterfly
- Replies: 28
- Views: 10521
Re: Golden Butterfly
As far as rebalance bands - the 40% bands that work well for the PP won't work as well here, because 8% of any one asset is too little. So I set mine for 30% bands (14-26%). Yup, that's exactly how my thought process went too. It was also my rationale for using 30% rebalancing bands. That reinforce...
- Tue Oct 15, 2019 10:49 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Investment locations?
- Replies: 27
- Views: 31255
Re: Investment locations?
In setting up asset locations for our Golden Butterfly-like (GB) portfolio back in the last week of June of this year when I completed it, I tried to follow the advice in Chapter 13 of The Permanent Portfolio by Rowland and Lawson (TPP). However, there were limitations of investments in my 401k (esp...
- Fri Jun 28, 2019 9:44 am
- Forum: Gold
- Topic: % of gold asset in ETF or CEF for rebalancing purposes
- Replies: 34
- Views: 22376
Re: % of gold asset in ETF or CEF for rebalancing purposes
This is an age specific question, but for the younger investor, why would one not load up the ROTH space with equity? (Keep what is likely going to be the largest end amount tax free) I would like to but we had to use equities in our retirement accounts at our employers because they did not have go...
- Fri Jun 28, 2019 9:36 am
- Forum: Gold
- Topic: % of gold asset in ETF or CEF for rebalancing purposes
- Replies: 34
- Views: 22376
Re: % of gold asset in ETF or CEF for rebalancing purposes
If it puts you at ease at all, from a technical standpoint there is no real hard resistance in gold until almost $1700. So if the breakout doesn't reverse in quick order here, there's a lot of room for this rally to run before the big institutional shorts will start to try to fade the rally. Buying...
- Sun Jun 23, 2019 5:22 am
- Forum: Gold
- Topic: % of gold asset in ETF or CEF for rebalancing purposes
- Replies: 34
- Views: 22376
Re: % of gold asset in ETF or CEF for rebalancing purposes
Thank you pmward. You are giving us a lot of confidence that we are doing the right thing. Now all I have to do it somehow decide to buy the gold at around 1400. It is hard psychologically when I almost bought it at 1280 a few weeks ago. It feels like I should just go ahead and do it as my sense is ...
- Sat Jun 22, 2019 5:25 am
- Forum: Gold
- Topic: % of gold asset in ETF or CEF for rebalancing purposes
- Replies: 34
- Views: 22376
Re: % of gold asset in ETF or CEF for rebalancing purposes
In the second scenario in my last post I failed to mention that the 25-30 year T-bonds would be in our Roth accounts.
- Fri Jun 21, 2019 2:21 pm
- Forum: Gold
- Topic: % of gold asset in ETF or CEF for rebalancing purposes
- Replies: 34
- Views: 22376
Re: % of gold asset in ETF or CEF for rebalancing purposes
Thank you for your kind remarks. But I still feel the need for guidance on my questions, which I'll try to state more clearly here: 1) Where should I put the gold funds and 25-30 yr T-bonds? Should I place the gold funds in Roths and 25-30 yr T-Bonds in rollover IRAs? Or should I place the gold fun...
- Tue Jun 18, 2019 11:11 pm
- Forum: Gold
- Topic: % of gold asset in ETF or CEF for rebalancing purposes
- Replies: 34
- Views: 22376
Re: % of gold asset in ETF or CEF for rebalancing purposes
One thing to remember is that these things do not need to be perfect. There is some flexibility in the system. This is supposed to be a simple system, not a complicated one. We humans have this natural tendency to want to just complicate the hell out of everything. There's not much benefit in over ...
- Mon Jun 17, 2019 11:31 pm
- Forum: Gold
- Topic: % of gold asset in ETF or CEF for rebalancing purposes
- Replies: 34
- Views: 22376
Re: % of gold asset in ETF or CEF for rebalancing purposes
My apologies for my probably poor way of writing the following. This is all so new to me that everything is not clear enough yet for me to be able to write about it well. Our in-service 401k, SSP (Employer supplementary savings plan), 403b, 401a, and 457b do not contain treasury funds, or even good ...
- Fri Jun 14, 2019 9:31 am
- Forum: Gold
- Topic: % of gold asset in ETF or CEF for rebalancing purposes
- Replies: 34
- Views: 22376
Re: % of gold asset in ETF or CEF for rebalancing purposes
that's my final answer: 36.4% in physical, 63.6% in ETFs. [/quote] AND Just be aware of the tax implications of selling gold. Most of us keep ETFs in tax-advantaged accounts for future rebalancing purposes. You can use closed end funds in taxable to qualify for cap gains rates, but it's really a pa...
- Fri Jun 14, 2019 12:22 am
- Forum: Gold
- Topic: % of gold asset in ETF or CEF for rebalancing purposes
- Replies: 34
- Views: 22376
Re: % of gold asset in ETF or CEF for rebalancing purposes
My question is how should one decide what percentage of one's gold asset should be held in either ETFs or closed end funds (CEFs) for rebalancing purposes? I believe it has happened historically that a single asset has reached the 35% rebalancing band three times in a row, Thank you for a great met...
- Thu Jun 13, 2019 9:01 am
- Forum: Gold
- Topic: % of gold asset in ETF or CEF for rebalancing purposes
- Replies: 34
- Views: 22376
% of gold asset in ETF or CEF for rebalancing purposes
I'm currently rearranging our full retirement nest egg investments around to implement the Permanent Portfolio, but actually more like the Golden Butterfly. I am 3-1/2 years from retirement and my wife is 8-1/2 years away. Right now I'm thinking about how to implement the gold asset. On page 159 of ...
- Sat Jun 08, 2019 10:48 pm
- Forum: Bonds
- Topic: Meaning of 1-3 yr and 10-30 yr treasury ladders
- Replies: 14
- Views: 13057
Re: Meaning of 1-3 yr and 10-30 yr treasury ladders
Thank you everyone for your replies. I feel more confident now with the wisdom you all have shared with me. Now, it is on to worrying about how to proceed with the gold purchase, so I"m heading over to read that forum.