Search found 1353 matches

by Hal
Sat Apr 15, 2023 7:00 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: gold beats bonds for 30 years
Replies: 6
Views: 1364

Re: gold beats bonds for 30 years

Thanks Mathjack,

Quite interesting. Is the only purpose of holding bonds to reduce volatility?
As an aside, just happened to come across this a couple of minutes ago.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v7_AS9CVZbY
by Hal
Fri Apr 14, 2023 8:24 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Hedging Against U.S. Dollar Losing Global Reserve Status
Replies: 34
Views: 32485

Re: Hedging Against U.S. Dollar Losing Global Reserve Status

But again my followup would be to ask whether there is even a weak correlation, in other words if the dollar is strengthening is it more likely (even a little bit) that foreign stocks will go either up or down? Hi Stuper, Have a listen to this slightly dated talk. Makes me wonder if we should be lo...
by Hal
Fri Apr 14, 2023 1:47 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Hedging Against U.S. Dollar Losing Global Reserve Status
Replies: 34
Views: 32485

Re: Hedging Against U.S. Dollar Losing Global Reserve Status

I don't really understand the relationship between foreign currencies and foreign stocks. Aren't they somewhat at odds with each other? So when a country's currency gets stronger, its stock prices can be affected negatively? I feel like I'm hearing conflicting advice on this issue. Some people say ...
by Hal
Thu Apr 13, 2023 7:56 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Funds
Topic: Comparison with Bridgewater All Weather fund
Replies: 0
Views: 51622

Comparison with Bridgewater All Weather fund

Interesting comparison.
https://corcapital.com.au/wp-content/up ... 3-v2_1.pdf

But the fees make me think this fund is run by Mafia Mutual....
by Hal
Thu Apr 13, 2023 7:40 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Considering the Goldsmith PP ?
Replies: 0
Views: 1351

Considering the Goldsmith PP ?

Interesting article 8)

https://static.vgcontent.info/crp/intl/ ... epaper.pdf

ps: If anyone has other countries whitepapers on this, feel free to post.
by Hal
Tue Apr 11, 2023 11:08 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Active management - recent winners
Replies: 6
Views: 2554

Re: Active management - recent winners

Xan wrote: Tue Apr 11, 2023 10:31 am
It reminds me of that interview we've linked here several times with the guy whose name escapes me who invests in small businesses that do unique things.
Is this the interview you were thinking of?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a4_U6bS-cU4
by Hal
Sat Apr 08, 2023 10:32 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Hedging Against U.S. Dollar Losing Global Reserve Status
Replies: 34
Views: 32485

Re: Hedging Against U.S. Dollar Losing Global Reserve Status

Does anyone have any thoughts on the prospects of these options going forward for someone in the decumulation stage? They have all worked fine in the past. It's the future that's hard to know. Cannot comment on future prospects, but your allocation is similar to BelangP's. I think he uses 2:1 High ...
by Hal
Sat Apr 08, 2023 8:20 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Hedging Against U.S. Dollar Losing Global Reserve Status
Replies: 34
Views: 32485

Re: Hedging Against U.S. Dollar Losing Global Reserve Status

stuper1 wrote: Sat Apr 08, 2023 7:49 am A 50/50 stock/gold split has a better average annual return than the traditional benchmark 60/40 portfolio.
So would you, or other forum members, feel comfortable with a 50/50 portfolio then?
https://www.merkinvestments.com/insight ... -12-10.php
by Hal
Wed Apr 05, 2023 5:50 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Hedging Against U.S. Dollar Losing Global Reserve Status
Replies: 34
Views: 32485

Re: Hedging Against U.S. Dollar Losing Global Reserve Status

Fun! I'd imagine that if the US "loses" reserve currency status, then you wouldn't want to have much of an allocation to international stocks. /crystal ball Hi Kriegs, agree, fun topic! Wonder if we could use what happened to Britain post WW2 as a guide to possible outcomes. Not sure wher...
by Hal
Wed Apr 05, 2023 2:24 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Hedging Against U.S. Dollar Losing Global Reserve Status
Replies: 34
Views: 32485

Re: Hedging Against U.S. Dollar Losing Global Reserve Status

What would Harry Browne do in this situation? Increase our gold allocation? Add an allocation to international stocks, and if so, how much and which sectors? Decrease our allocation to long-term Treasuries? What about short-term Treasuries? I welcome constructive input but again I don't really want...
by Hal
Mon Apr 03, 2023 7:53 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Simplifying fund choices for the PP/GB
Replies: 19
Views: 7953

Re: Simplifying fund choices for the PP/GB

Does anyone else want to take a stab at honestly describing their own "simple" set up? I mean, I assume that many here hold at least four assets in three accounts that each have different tax treatment, correct? Well... first the rationale! 1. Has to be easy for another family member to m...
by Hal
Wed Mar 29, 2023 5:41 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: I'M OUT!
Replies: 64
Views: 79202

Re: I'M OUT!

Semi-serious response to Maddy's original post ::)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C768oeSvJ5c
by Hal
Fri Mar 24, 2023 3:40 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: International PP / theory
Replies: 11
Views: 3468

Re: International PP / theory

This allocation has a great ulcer index - but it's at the bottom of the table for almost all other metrics? I've spent quite some time playing with the charts and backtesting ideas - they're great and addictive but in the end they're tools. Given my rookie level of understanding I'd really like to ...
by Hal
Thu Mar 23, 2023 4:48 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: International PP / theory
Replies: 11
Views: 3468

Re: International PP / theory

Those in turn lead me to try to understand what would be an optimal PP (or GB *) for a "countryless", itinerant person (a bit like me) but the more I research that topic, the more it's becoming intractable :) (I'm probably overthinking it but I'm really interested in understanding the the...
by Hal
Thu Mar 23, 2023 5:40 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: International PP / theory
Replies: 11
Views: 3468

Re: International PP / theory

Good evening Witchcraft, Congratulations on your first post. It's late here in Australia so I will be brief. For my purposes I use Smithys GoldSmith portfolio (see footnote) and a retirement fund consisting of 2:1 International Fixed Interest (Hedged to AUD) to International Equities and 25% Gold ou...
by Hal
Wed Mar 22, 2023 9:35 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: I'M OUT!
Replies: 64
Views: 79202

Re: I'M OUT!

For my pennies worth.... It's always good to have a plan B. For me, I plan to switch over to the BelangP portfolio when I consider the PP is no longer viable. HB said himself in his radio show, that if everything went to to pieces you would still have 25% Gold. What he didn't say was how not to reba...
by Hal
Thu Mar 02, 2023 9:36 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Why do they say gold isn't a hedge against inflation?
Replies: 17
Views: 7208

Re: Why do they say gold isn't a hedge against inflation?

It sure is helping in Australia !
by Hal
Fri Feb 24, 2023 9:17 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Defensive moves when lunatics are running the asylum?
Replies: 20
Views: 5243

Re: Defensive moves when lunatics are running the asylum?

There is a good argument that it truly is different this time. Different in the sense that the Fed is being presented with a Hobson's choice from which there is likely no good outcome--and different in the sense that the global elite appear to actually be TRYING to take down the economy. That said,...
by Hal
Tue Feb 21, 2023 9:20 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Dawg Pound
Replies: 292
Views: 125275

Re: Dawg Pound

by Hal
Thu Feb 16, 2023 7:12 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: ChatGPT and what it means for our future
Replies: 135
Views: 58992

Re: ChatGPT and what it means for our future

Forgive me, but I'm having a hard time understanding why this ChatBot thing is anything but a glorified version of my long-lost doll. At least Chatty Cathy had something edifying to say. Well, they still sell Talky Tina ::) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bc9HtdMDvZM No explanation needed for Twili...
by Hal
Mon Feb 13, 2023 7:50 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Politically incorrect but....
Replies: 4
Views: 1461

Re: Politically incorrect but....

I Shrugged wrote: Mon Feb 13, 2023 7:10 pm Chat GPT?
You want real AI? Remember my evil twin! ;D
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wy4EfdnMZ5g
by Hal
Fri Feb 10, 2023 6:03 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The Peter Schiff portfolio: an evolutionary offshoot of the PP
Replies: 100
Views: 30050

Re: The Peter Schiff portfolio: an evolutionary offshoot of the PP

I strongly suggest the kitces video for understanding this fact . It should be required watching for anyone who wants to understand just what the term means https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7sUl_04g-CQ Thanks Mathjak, you've persuaded me to watch Kitces! I would imagine then it would still be safer ...