Search found 516 matches

by Kevin K.
Sat Apr 01, 2023 5:49 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Re: I'M OUT!
Replies: 22
Views: 4008

Re: I'M OUT!

FWIW I think Cullen Roche's counter-cyclical investing strategy is a more elegant iteration on tactical investing that also entails much less work. Here's a good recent interview with him: https://pictureperfectportfolios.com/strategy-behind-discipline-fund-dscf-etf-cullen-roche/ The basic idea is t...
by Kevin K.
Fri Mar 31, 2023 10:19 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: I'M OUT!
Replies: 64
Views: 60387

Re: I'M OUT!

I would propose that it is the reserve status of the dollar that has allowed the U.S. to maintain its dominance in the international order. The reserve status of the dollar is also the reason why the U.S. has enjoyed its extraordinarily profligate standard of living and the privilege of being able ...
by Kevin K.
Tue Mar 28, 2023 10:17 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: I'M OUT!
Replies: 64
Views: 60387

Re: I'M OUT!

For over a year now, I've been asking the question, "Could Harry have anticipated this?" I'm referring primarily to the extraordinarily reckless manner in which the dollar's reserve status has been abused, to the resulting distortions in the financial markets, and to the chaotic bufoonery by which ...
by Kevin K.
Sat Jan 14, 2023 3:32 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Defensive moves when lunatics are running the asylum?
Replies: 20
Views: 4569

Re: Defensive moves when lunatics are running the asylum?

joypog wrote:
Sat Jan 14, 2023 2:36 pm
Smith got it covered, aside from moving to another economy....
Yeah, I tend to agree. And besides, no way my application for a New Zealand residency visa is gonna be approved before 1/19. ;)
by Kevin K.
Sat Jan 14, 2023 11:20 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Defensive moves when lunatics are running the asylum?
Replies: 20
Views: 4569

Defensive moves when lunatics are running the asylum?

I don't know whether this belongs in the PP discussion, the bond one or politics but here goes: our fearless leaders/clueless clowns are flirting with defaulting on Treasury debt once again. We all know what happened the last time with the Moody's downgrade of Treasury bonds but it certainly seems l...
by Kevin K.
Wed Jan 04, 2023 9:36 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: SCV in the GB
Replies: 8
Views: 4890

Re: SCV in the GB

I highly recommend this article from the Optimized Portfolio site: https://www.optimizedportfolio.com/small-value-showdown/ Personally I'm using half VBR, half AVUV for the SCV allocation in the GB. Whenever possible I prefer to use funds/ETF's from two different companies for each asset class, and ...
by Kevin K.
Sun Jan 01, 2023 10:19 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 2022 Returns
Replies: 44
Views: 22125

Re: 2022 Returns

-8.38% according to Portfolio Visualizer for my modified GB: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=2022&firstMonth=1&endYear=2022&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&includeYTD=false&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=...
by Kevin K.
Tue Nov 15, 2022 3:52 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Bond barbell vs. other options
Replies: 12
Views: 2664

Re: Bond barbell vs. other options

I'm interested in revisiting the classic long-term Treasury/money market barbell. I don't mean to incur the wrath of any "stay the course no matter what" purists but I'm under the impression that many of us "fudge" these allocations to some degree anyway. Way back when the permissible level of fudg...
by Kevin K.
Mon Nov 14, 2022 8:43 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: A history lesson for our crypto trolls
Replies: 23
Views: 3753

Re: A history lesson for our crypto trolls

Desert wrote:
Mon Nov 14, 2022 8:14 am
He couldn't have a more perfect name, Sam Bankman-Fried.
True, although Sam Ponzi-Madoff would also have worked. ;D
by Kevin K.
Sun Nov 13, 2022 2:30 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: A history lesson for our crypto trolls
Replies: 23
Views: 3753

Re: A history lesson for our crypto trolls

It looks like Ben took down the article. I'm a bit behind on the Animal Spirits podcasts so I don't know if they've talked about it yet, but the ones with the guy from BlockFI are always pretty interesting. The one where they talked about 3 Arrows was cool inside-baseball stuff, I assume he knows a...
by Kevin K.
Sun Nov 13, 2022 9:12 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Bond barbell vs. other options
Replies: 12
Views: 2664

Re: Bond barbell vs. other options

Gold. Agreed. It offers very little inflation protection. If Australia's inflation rate went to 1000% our economy is so small it would not affect the gold price. I think of gold as just another currency. I do like its long term negative correlation to shares as well. I know this is in the bond sect...
by Kevin K.
Sat Nov 12, 2022 9:12 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Bond barbell vs. other options
Replies: 12
Views: 2664

Re: Bond barbell vs. other options

And 2022 has certainly shown - with a vengeance - that those who thought LTT's would zig when equities zagged didn't know their market history. Hi Kevin, Let me pose this question. Do you think the premise the PP was founded on is still valid? That is, LTT's do well in deflation/Gold in Inflation/C...
by Kevin K.
Fri Nov 11, 2022 6:21 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Bond barbell vs. other options
Replies: 12
Views: 2664

Bond barbell vs. other options

I'm interested in revisiting the classic long-term Treasury/money market barbell. I don't mean to incur the wrath of any "stay the course no matter what" purists but I'm under the impression that many of us "fudge" these allocations to some degree anyway. Way back when the permissible level of fudgi...
by Kevin K.
Thu Nov 10, 2022 12:53 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: All-weather portfolios - Further resources?
Replies: 22
Views: 3421

Re: All-weather portfolios - Further resources?

The Portfolio Visualizer link is irrelevant seajay since DSCF was only introduced in September 2021. That’s why I said I’m watching it, not investing in it. But if you read about its approach, its just automating the strategic rebalancing out of frothy markets that Jack Bogle and others have recomme...
by Kevin K.
Thu Nov 10, 2022 11:13 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: All-weather portfolios - Further resources?
Replies: 22
Views: 3421

Re: All-weather portfolios - Further resources?

Getting back to the OP's questions: I highly recommend reading through Cullen Roche's website, starting with this comprehensive overview of money: https://www.pragcap.com/understanding-money/ He does a great job of explaining how fiat currencies work - and, among other things, why gold isn't a parti...
by Kevin K.
Tue Nov 08, 2022 9:42 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 4.3% SWR for 30 years
Replies: 22
Views: 3449

Re: 4.3% SWR for 30 years

His premise that a balanced portfolio can only support a draw rate in the 3% range is unfounded …. Mathematically A failure of 4% needs to see less then a 2% real return the first 15 years of a 30 year retirement. There is nothing since 1966 that has done that See Roth's more detailed article (he p...
by Kevin K.
Sun Nov 06, 2022 10:36 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 4.3% SWR for 30 years
Replies: 22
Views: 3449

Re: 4.3% SWR for 30 years

How to do this with funds is discussed in detail by posters in the thread, along with the plusses and minuses of using funds vs. the ladder. Essentially one needs to duration match for one’s spending and remember to rebalance and reduce the duration at least quarterly. Some combination of VTIP, SCHP...
by Kevin K.
Sun Nov 06, 2022 9:09 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 4.3% SWR for 30 years
Replies: 22
Views: 3449

4.3% SWR for 30 years

Excellent article by the well-known financial advisor Allan Roth on taking advantage of the current TIPS yields: https://www.advisorperspectives.com/articles/2022/10/24/the-4-rule-just-became-a-whole-lot-easier?utm_source=boomtrain&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=AP+Newsletter+2022-10-25+6479&bt_ee=AR...
by Kevin K.
Tue Oct 25, 2022 5:43 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: A viable alternative to the PP - or any other conservative portfolio?
Replies: 8
Views: 1712

Re: A viable alternative to the PP - or any other conservative portfolio?

I am not at all saying it is a bad idea, I just read it (and downloaded and played with the spreadsheet a bit) and it is still not 100% clear to me if there is any value left after 30 years, or he will be spending down principal as well? "While this strategy isn’t perfect, it produced a safe 4.3% a...
by Kevin K.
Tue Oct 25, 2022 4:32 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: A viable alternative to the PP - or any other conservative portfolio?
Replies: 8
Views: 1712

Re: A viable alternative to the PP - or any other conservative portfolio?

I looked at this, excited...then I see that the 4.36% withdrawal rate includes principal, so the end result after 30 years is you have nothing left. If that's the basis, then I'd rather do an immediate annuity. For the same 100k, where he pulls out $4300 a year for 30 years, an SPIA will allow me t...
by Kevin K.
Tue Oct 25, 2022 10:14 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: A viable alternative to the PP - or any other conservative portfolio?
Replies: 8
Views: 1712

A viable alternative to the PP - or any other conservative portfolio?

From the article: "I built a 4.36% real (inflation-adjusted) systematic withdrawal portfolio using a 30-Year TIPS ladder. In June, I wrote about safe spend rates and concluded that a balanced portfolio could only support a 3.3% real withdrawal rate for a 30 year period with a 90% chance of success. ...
by Kevin K.
Sat Oct 22, 2022 5:19 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Non-ESG ETFs
Replies: 53
Views: 37760

Re: Non-ESG ETFs

From last week's Bogleheads conference speakers, re: ESG funds: And this recent article in the NYT really says it all: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/29/opinion/esg-investing-responsibility.html?unlocked_article_code=5xfBDLNGqkuq37Zsec1Q8OS11UzHCTFOLaTTGLC1z2UZRDVf-zEO3ajV9AYxx-GWApdz-dwIq6VY4g6iO-...