Not sure if this is a dead thread since I see the last post was in April. I want to belatedly add my voice to the chorus of heartfelt "thank-you's" to Tyler for his amazing web site. I have been "down the rabbit hole" for days not only playing with Portfolio Charts calculators an...

Sorry, I should have volunteered that info to begin with. I moved away from a pure PP allocation and liquidated my gold holdings, but when I get back in will certainly use BV.

I had my gold split between GTU and Bullionvault for about 5 years and have nothing but good things to say about the latter. You do own your gold, as the site makes clear, and the cost of doing so is half the ER of IAU, the cheapest of the ETFs. 5 choices of vaults as well, so those who wish to put ...

Don't know if you've seen this recent post by Wade Pfau, but I thought it was an excellent short discussion about how much the type of bonds used in the two most influential SWR write-ups matters: http://retirementresearcher.com/safe-withdrawal-rates-for-retirement-and-the-trinity-study/?utm_source=...

Nice to see that comparison - thanks MachineGhost and Tyler! As for what hurt the Swedroe portfolio, I'd say it's more a matter of the once-in-a-lifetime events that helped the PP. Quoting William Bernstein: "For starters, gold was not easily investible during the first decade of this period; i...

Tyler's cool tool makes backtesting like this great fun, but of course there are any number of bond-heavy allocations one could run that produce similar numbers. Larry Swedroe alone has at least a half-dozen iterations of his "low fat tails" portfolios, the most recent of which use 70% IT ...

As beautiful as it is edifying Tyler - thank you! The next step I'm trying to do on my own - without a fraction of your Excel skills! - is comparing these results to other kinds of "low fat tail" portfolios that I think are more useful alternative choices for the kind of defensively-minded...

Here's a link to an excellent two part series on this very topic by Darrow Kirkpatrick. For those unfamiliar with his writing, he's one of the clearest and most insightful writers on early retirement and investing I've come across in the past few years: http://www.caniretireyet.com/long-term-care-in...

You're right MachineGhost, and I apologize for my error (and Greaney's!). $10,000 invested in GLD from 1994-2014 = $25,932 final balance, while the same amount invested in VGPMX yielded a paltry 10,980. He also used Vanguard's LT Treasury fund as a proxy for 30 year Treasuries instead of TLT, though...

Can't resist sharing this funny Q & A from Scott Burns' regular column in the Dallas Morning News: Q: My husband is convinced there is going to be a total devaluation of the dollar. His solution is to turn a large portion of his 401(k) into a gold-backed vehicle. What would be the best way to do...

"The analysis uses VGPMX for the Gold portion of the PP allocation. Where's the garbage can?"

I just compared VGPMX to GLD for the period in question on Portfolio Visualizer and the results are exactly the same.

Since I ER'd in 2002 myself Greaney's comments about poor returns for those retiring in 2000 certainly hit home. Since, like many here, I don't have the stomach for the volatility that comes with the kind of high equity allocations Greaney and other Bogleheads are comfortable with I thought I'd comp...

John Greaney's website is one of the oldest finance sites for those contemplating (or having already chosen) early retirement. He's a very sharp numbers guy and wonderfully irreverent about the investing world, FA fees and much else. This updated story on real-world portfolio returns has much of int...

IEF has a duration of about 7.5 years.  Seems a little short if you are combing the 25% cash and 25% long treasuries. I too appreciate the pitfalls of backtesting, but I have been thinking about using the intermediate bonds for a long time.  I'm not convinced that a 10 or 15% allocation to gold woul...

As a practical matter I think you have to fudge a bit and make part of the 60% bond allocation a CD ladder, Treasury MM fund or the like, especially if you're in the distribution rather than accumulation phase. Buying individual treasuries is as you say the obvious option, but there's also the ETF I...

+2 for HB Reader for writing one of the wisest and most informative finance posts I've read anywhere. I am printing it out. And Phalanx, boy do I hear you with getting folks to read even the most basic stuff about investing. I'll hand out a copy of HB's 16 Rules and hope I can get friends to read th...

I posted this quote from William Bernstein on the 60:30:10 thread, but I think it's relevant to this discussion as well. Since it was illegal to own gold until 1975 I'd suggest running your numbers starting in 1980; you'll get quite different results. Here's the quote: What’s wrong with this picture...

Before committing to the PP I, like any number of other folks here, had a complex, slice-and-dice portfolio; watching all of its purportedly non-correlated assets tank in unison during the 2008 crash was a major wake-up call. I still follow the returns of that kind of portfolio, and also appreciate ...

Much as I love the Dirty Harry quote - and got into the PP in good part because of its "bunker in the event of Armageddon" design, I think there are plenty of counterarguments worth making here - most of them already made by Mr. Bernstein. It's "permanent" designation notwithstan...

I've been mulling over this post for awhile. I don't want to overempathasize porfolio backtesting, but I certainly was impressed by how superior Desert's 60/30/10 allocation was to the PP when I ran the numbers on Peak to Trough. As a frugal early retiree living off of assets I don't see the lack of...

My 30 year Treasuries are all in IRA's. At the moment I'm having a hard time seeing any downside to just liquidating them until the default threat debacle is over. I've spent some time looking into ways to invest in UK and Japan treasuries, but I haven't been able to find any ETF's or mutual funds t...

Okay, I waded through the 9 pages of speculation and pontification here and the 13 on the thread about this I started earlier. Now what I want to know is who's actually planning on diversifying their 30 year U.S. Treasuries with long-term British and Japanese debt, and who's planning on turning thei...

Thanks for the wise perspective Gumby and Medium Tex. Your dry humor about the situation, MT, reminded me of one of your many previous classic comments about Treasuries vs. other bond options: "they're still the best horse at the glue factory." I need to do a better job of keeping that in ...

At the moment it looks like 2011 all over again, with our elected "leaders' flirting with default on U.S. Treasury obligations. Predictions I've read are for a major spike in interest rates along with a major, albeit perhaps temporary, stock market correction. I've read Browne pretty carefully ...