Search found 689 matches

by BearBones
Wed Jan 25, 2012 5:05 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP straddled between taxable and tax-deferred accounts
Replies: 20
Views: 9692

Re: PP straddled between taxable and tax-deferred accounts

An 80/20 40/40/10/10 is pushing it, but is still much better diversity than most people have.  If I had 80% in a taxable account and 20% in a tax-deferred account, I would probably overweight my cash position a little bit to level out the volatility.  Maybe 40% cash and 20% gold, stocks and bonds (...
by BearBones
Tue Jan 24, 2012 8:34 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP straddled between taxable and tax-deferred accounts
Replies: 20
Views: 9692

Re: PP straddled between taxable and tax-deferred accounts

In searching through the treads by search words, I found only 2 touching on this topic: http://gyroscopicinvesting.com/forum/http://77.104.139.218/~gyroscop/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?t=8 http://gyroscopicinvesting.com/forum/http://77.104.139.218/~gyroscop/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?t=6 http://gyroscopicinvesti...
by BearBones
Mon Jan 23, 2012 8:50 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP straddled between taxable and tax-deferred accounts
Replies: 20
Views: 9692

PP straddled between taxable and tax-deferred accounts

I cannot imagine that this question has not been posted before. If so, my apologies; just point me to the conversation. Most of my investments are outside of a tax-deferred account (TDA), so I am struggling with trying to keep the least tax friendly investments within the TDA.  In doing so, the prob...
by BearBones
Sun Jan 22, 2012 3:15 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: My understanding of MMT - Please point out any errors
Replies: 121
Views: 28123

Re: My understanding of MMT - Please point out any errors

Right. A tabular example (using a slightly different reserve requirement and simplified by using a separate bank for each loan) might look something like this: [align=center] http://dl.dropbox.com/u/778166/Permanent%20Portfolio/fractional-reserve.png [/align] The starting money is known as the mone...
by BearBones
Sun Jan 22, 2012 12:51 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: My understanding of MMT - Please point out any errors
Replies: 121
Views: 28123

Re: My understanding of MMT - Please point out any errors

The best example of MMT I can give you is the following analogy (which I didn't write): "MMT (Modern Monetary Theory) focuses on the way monetary systems such as ours operate and the implications from this knowledge. Is MMT advocating a free lunch? Is it saying that we can simply spend our way...
by BearBones
Sun Jan 22, 2012 12:34 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: My understanding of MMT - Please point out any errors
Replies: 121
Views: 28123

Re: My understanding of MMT - Please point out any errors

When a bank makes a $1,000,000 loan, they have created an asset AND a liability. So when you net these out (thinking about the aggregate private sector), you get 0. Think about calculating your net worth; you take the value of your assets and subtract out your liabilities. Sheepishly venturing into...
by BearBones
Sun Jan 22, 2012 8:07 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Will Someone Help Me Buy My First Gold Coin?
Replies: 64
Views: 35340

Re: Will Someone Help Me Buy My First Gold Coin?

Here are my notes on gold dealers in alphabetic order. Most of these have been recommended on this site, Bogleheads, or elsewhere. I've weeded out those that consistently have higher prices. Would be curious if anyone has a reason why any of these companies should not be on list or why one company s...
by BearBones
Mon Jan 16, 2012 4:55 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Can the PP perform well when two of its asset classes are falling
Replies: 176
Views: 56315

Re: Can the PP perform well when two of its asset classes are falling

Since 2003, the CAGR of VBMFX vs. TLT was 5.5% to 8.8%.  I can swallow a 3.3/4 = 0.825% reduction in overall performance in the PP if it means I don't get a 50% haircut in TLT in only 6 months as happened when rates rose in 2009. Is the 3.3% difference really the reason why the PP holds LTTs, or is...
by BearBones
Sat Jan 14, 2012 8:40 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Adding Silver to the PP (Small Quantities)
Replies: 25
Views: 8963

Re: Adding Silver to the PP (Small Quantities)

For pre-1964 90% silver dimes, quarters and half dollars, the weight is proportional to the face value. Not true for silver dollars, as indicated above. But when you buy "junk" silver coins, it is often a mixed bag of the above. As for the SHTF scenario, junk silver coins would be more use...
by BearBones
Fri Jan 13, 2012 9:14 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Can the PP perform well when two of its asset classes are falling
Replies: 176
Views: 56315

Re: Can the PP perform well when two of its asset classes are falling

I don't have a specific alternative to the PP; I'm actually not 100% into the PP as is. I am currently working on modifying and backtesting a version of a FTM portfolio (although it will include some gold as well) so it doesn't have as much tracking error in good times vis a vis the whole market as...
by BearBones
Fri Jan 13, 2012 8:31 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Treasured Beliefs
Replies: 22
Views: 8911

Re: Treasured Beliefs

What if one of the men professed to worship God and the other to worship Satan? Ideally I'd take the same position that you did on LTTs in your discussion on Being Able to Argue Against Your Own Position. http://gyroscopicinvesting.com/forum/http://77.104.139.218/~gyroscop/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?t=7
by BearBones
Fri Jan 13, 2012 8:21 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Treasured Beliefs
Replies: 22
Views: 8911

Re: Treasured Beliefs

Sometimes I think you just have to let some "empty space" be and appreciate it for what it is.  Or to quote Paul Newman, "Sometimes nothing can be a pretty cool hand." So, by giving up some of our identification with self and our strongly held beliefs (or at least taking such th...
by BearBones
Thu Jan 12, 2012 8:31 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Treasured Beliefs
Replies: 22
Views: 8911

Re: Treasured Beliefs

Rather profound post, MT. Beliefs are integral to our construction of ego identity (for better or worse), are they not? And we tend to hold onto our views of self more doggedly than about anything else. We purposefully gather and affiliate with others of similar belief to form larger ego entities ba...
by BearBones
Wed Jan 11, 2012 9:12 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Geographic Diversification - Q and A Thread
Replies: 77
Views: 31848

Re: Geographic Diversification - Q and A Thread

In Canada, can a safe deposit box be opened without opening a bank account, which IS reportable for those with > $10k in accounts outside the US? I bet so, but I have not checked. However, as I posted earlier, it may be better to have an account so that the SDB can be paid for directly and so that ...
by BearBones
Wed Jan 11, 2012 9:07 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Geographic Diversification - Q and A Thread
Replies: 77
Views: 31848

Re: Geographic Diversification - Q and A Thread

Then there is the issue of all that money wiring around to foreign countries so you can buy the gold. And BTW, the new FATCA laws are going to start forcing non complying banks to automatically add a withholding tax on all wires coming out of the US. So unless you are smuggling out cash, you're goi...
by BearBones
Wed Jan 11, 2012 8:48 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Sustainability Calculation
Replies: 19
Views: 7762

Re: Sustainability Calculation

I'm just waiting for the politicians to catch on to reality as they continue talk about needing to return America's economy to 5 percent annual growth rates.... Nicely illustrated point. Two things have to happen before this becomes policy, IMO: That there there is a looming crisis with a limited t...
by BearBones
Tue Jan 10, 2012 9:11 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Geographic Diversification - Q and A Thread
Replies: 77
Views: 31848

Re: Geographic Diversification - Q and A Thread

MediumTex wrote: What about the gold sniffing dogs?
Image
by BearBones
Tue Jan 10, 2012 9:01 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Geographic Diversification - Q and A Thread
Replies: 77
Views: 31848

Re: Geographic Diversification - Q and A Thread

I can't remember if I posted this elsewhere or not, but back during the gold confiscation days, the way the IRS would make sure it would get all the illegal gold was by posting Special Agents in safety deposit box rooms.  When a customer came in and opened their All the more reason to have some gol...
by BearBones
Tue Jan 10, 2012 8:52 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Geographic Diversification - Q and A Thread
Replies: 77
Views: 31848

Re: Geographic Diversification - Q and A Thread

My inclination is if I were to go to the risk of bringing coins into Canada, I'd rather just look into storing gold overseas at a place like Perth Mint or Switzerland for larger sums. Part of the reason for geographic diversification is to reduce the risk of confiscation in a state of economic cala...
by BearBones
Tue Jan 10, 2012 8:31 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Geographic Diversification - Q and A Thread
Replies: 77
Views: 31848

Re: Geographic Diversification - Q and A Thread

Bringing gold through customs like that is taking a big risk. IMO. There is just no way to know what the custom's officers may do or how much time and money it may take to recover assets even if unlawfully seized. I'd be careful. For customs at airport, I would be worried, since metals would be pic...
by BearBones
Mon Jan 09, 2012 7:06 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Geographic Diversification - Q and A Thread
Replies: 77
Views: 31848

Re: Geographic Diversification - Q and A Thread

Back to your original question, Craig. I recently sold a second home in Canada, so I have maintained a Canadian bank account for years. Although I no longer need it, I like having some of my cash in a foreign country for all of the reasons that you indicated earlier in this thread, especially in a c...
by BearBones
Sun Jan 08, 2012 9:01 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP. 25% stocks 75% cash?
Replies: 23
Views: 9291

Re: PP. 25% stocks 75% cash?

But that's my bogey personally. I want 3-5% real returns over time. If some other asset happens to have done the same or better then that is fine. Just as long as I hit my goals with the portfolio I don't care if Beanie Babies were a better investment. All that matters is that I got the performance...
by BearBones
Sat Jan 07, 2012 10:43 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Being Able to Argue Against Your Own Position
Replies: 10
Views: 3908

Re: Being Able to Argue Against Your Own Position

Must admit that I was skeptical about this thread on first read. Just a clever, oblique way of reciting the same old mantras, "Hey, I've been 100% invested in the PP for longer than most of you (5 years) and it has weathered all storms. Plus it can be backtested. Plus it was written by a truly ...
by BearBones
Thu Jan 05, 2012 7:51 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Being Able to Argue Against Your Own Position
Replies: 10
Views: 3908

Re: Being Able to Argue Against Your Own Position

Totally agree. Similarly, one should also be able to construct an argument for and against the unadulterated PP. As Tortoise stated in this related thread on LTTs, the PP only benefits from such "kicking of the tires." In fact, isn't that what HBs career was all about? And if he were alive...
by BearBones
Wed Jan 04, 2012 9:10 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Upside volatility and long term bonds
Replies: 59
Views: 22816

Re: Upside volatility and long term bonds

Tex, this was exactly the kind of feedback that I was looking for, but after seeing Tortoise's potential yields with rate drops, I would be inclined to modify your decision points up one rung (e.g., trim exposure at 1.5 %, and convert all to T bills at 0.75%). Something that I appreciate the most a...