Search found 945 matches
- Fri Apr 15, 2016 11:30 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Permanent portfolio accumulation and capital addition
- Replies: 33
- Views: 16569
Re: Permanent portfolio accumulation and capital addition
I agree with Sophie's analysis, but FWIW I follow Browne's advice, direct all contributions to cash, and follow the plain 15/35 rebalance rule. One reason is my desire to stay disciplined about not going down the slippery slope of changing the PP bit by bit until it stops being a PP. Another reason ...
- Mon Feb 29, 2016 12:41 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Harry Browne now available at the Kindle Store
- Replies: 2
- Views: 2919
- Wed Feb 24, 2016 1:37 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Not many options in company's 401(k) plan
- Replies: 4
- Views: 3278
Re: Not many options in company's 401(k) plan
Another option: build one complete portfolio in your 401k and another in your taxable space. Taxable can be a by-the-book 4x25 PP with no compromises. For now, 401k can be a conservative Boglehead-style portfolio, something like 30% stock index and 70% total bond index. Most people change employers ...
- Fri Feb 19, 2016 11:28 am
- Forum: Gold
- Topic: Alternatives to Physical Gold
- Replies: 11
- Views: 7136
Re: Alternatives to Physical Gold
IMO, in this scenario IAU is the lesser of evils. But physical gold is better.
- Mon Feb 15, 2016 5:11 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: The fifth economic pattern
- Replies: 14
- Views: 8333
Re: The fifth economic pattern
IMO, we are transitioning between one of the four conditions. Since we are "in neutral" it is difficult to tell which condition prevails, if any. But in the future, with the benefit of hindsight, it will be clear that we were transitioning into one of the four existing conditions.
- Mon Feb 15, 2016 4:55 pm
- Forum: Bonds
- Topic: Acceptable Bond ETFs
- Replies: 4
- Views: 5679
Re: Acceptable Bond ETFs
Quick terminology recap: Maturity is simply the amount of time remaining before a bond matures. Duration is a more complex measure of how sensitive a bond is to interest rate changes. It is a function of maturity and several other factors. http://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/maturity.asp http://www....
- Wed Feb 10, 2016 4:51 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Safe withdrawal rate when you have a mortgage?
- Replies: 21
- Views: 10299
Re: Safe withdrawal rate when you have a mortgage?
My retirement plan is to both own a home outright, and also to have a PP that is large enough to comfortably cover all remaining living expenses. I view these as separate projects, and am trying to time things so that they are both complete at about the same time. So my mortgage situation and portfo...
- Fri Jan 08, 2016 2:00 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Average Investor Return for 2015 was -3.09%
- Replies: 9
- Views: 7338
Re: Average Investor Return for 2015 was -3.09%
It's good to keep perspective!
- Mon Jan 04, 2016 1:20 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Tilt due to taxes?
- Replies: 15
- Views: 7906
Re: Tilt due to taxes?
Mark Leavy is right about the stock PP being pretty tax-efficient, which is good, but doesn't leave much room for improvement. My advice (similar to Mark's) is: - Use the default 15/35 bands and never pre-emptively rebalance. - Use a dollar-stable fund for cash transactions to minimize taxable event...
- Tue Dec 29, 2015 11:25 pm
- Forum: Cash
- Topic: Vanguard reopens Federal Money Market Fund (VMFXX)
- Replies: 6
- Views: 6057
Vanguard reopens Federal Money Market Fund (VMFXX)
Due to some SEC mumbo-jumbo, Vanguard is reopening its Federal Money Market Fund (VMFXX) and making it more PP-friendly: https://personal.vanguard.com/us/insights/article/announcement-062015 The fund... will be required to hold 99.5% (up from 80%) of assets in cash, government securities, and/or rep...
- Sun Dec 13, 2015 1:54 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Did Harry Browne consider this flaw in his strategy?
- Replies: 41
- Views: 22368
Re: Did Harry Browne consider this flaw in his strategy?
My $.02, keep it simple, use a plain-vanilla 4x25 PP, and direct your energies toward things other than optimizing your investments. For typical working- and middle-class households with portfolios below the multi-million mark, spending time and energy improving investment returns is less effective ...
- Fri Sep 18, 2015 2:49 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Role of gold in absence of inflation
- Replies: 37
- Views: 14446
Re: Role of gold in absence of inflation
Thanks guys. I think sometimes critics of the PP fail to understand that, unlike most other investment strategies, the PP tries to work on both a mathematical financial engineering level, and also a psychological level. An optimized allocation is one thing, but a regimen that imperfect human beings ...
- Wed Sep 16, 2015 12:18 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Role of gold in absence of inflation
- Replies: 37
- Views: 14446
Re: Role of gold in absence of inflation
The primary sources (Browne's books and podcasts) talk about how the gold bullion allocation is an all-else-fails backup in case your local economy stops working for you. Hyperinflation is one failure mode, but there are others. As a thought experiment, put yourself in the position of a Syrian refug...
Re: VUSXX
Yeah that's my analysis too.
- Wed Sep 02, 2015 1:08 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: PSA: I now have a 3-year period with no gains
- Replies: 275
- Views: 106861
Re: PSA: I now have a 3-year period with no gains
Why don't you read what he wrote or are you just being selective? Before saying something, please consider asking yourself: will this add productively to the discussion? If not, it would be a kindness to not say that thing. We have a nice community here. A little common courtesy would go a long way.
- Wed Sep 02, 2015 12:57 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: PSA: I now have a 3-year period with no gains
- Replies: 275
- Views: 106861
Re: PSA: I now have a 3-year period with no gains
+1MediumTex wrote: Why do that?
Please stop.
- Sat Aug 29, 2015 8:53 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Is it a good idea to replace gold with gold mining stocks in PP?
- Replies: 12
- Views: 5592
Re: Is it a good idea to replace gold with gold mining stocks in PP?
This is covered in the FAQ
https://web.archive.org/web/20160324133 ... ation-faq/
and also the book and the podcast.
https://web.archive.org/web/20160324133 ... ation-faq/
and also the book and the podcast.
- Tue Aug 25, 2015 12:02 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Question for International Investors
- Replies: 6
- Views: 4601
Re: Question for International Investors
It's a good idea but somehow I feel like there must be some kind of catch that makes investing through currency exchange rates different from investing domestically (in a different country). Otherwise I think a young Harry Browne would've bought a conservative stock/bond portfolio in Switzerland and...
- Tue Aug 18, 2015 11:34 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: I keep seeing GLD being recommended over IAU
- Replies: 13
- Views: 6047
Re: I keep seeing GLD being recommended over IAU
I like IAU better than GLD, too.
GLD came first so it has the benefit of greater notoriety and assets under management.
GLD came first so it has the benefit of greater notoriety and assets under management.
- Sat Jul 25, 2015 2:46 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: The Desert Portfolio
- Replies: 52
- Views: 38671
Re: The Desert Portfolio
Another +1, if you squint the Desert Portfolio looks a lot like a 4x25 PP with some modest reallocation. If you squint another way, it also looks like Vanguard Target Retirement Income Fund (VTINX) which is approximately 30/50/20 stocks/total bond/short term TIPS. The 10% gold and 20% ST TIPS alloca...
- Thu Jul 23, 2015 10:05 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: BH portfolio in 401k
- Replies: 6
- Views: 4155
Re: BH portfolio in 401k
Agreed that those are poor options but you seem to be making the best of it. Based on Morningstar, MWTRX looks like the lesser of evils. JSNFX resembles a short term junk bond fund, while MWTRX is more moderate on quality and duration. The expense ratios are a wash. If it were me I'd probably do 40%...
- Thu Jul 23, 2015 12:31 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Perspective on the current drawdown
- Replies: 67
- Views: 23292
Re: Perspective on the current drawdown
I like to view these drawdown's as the spring coiling tighter. I think MT said that once, and it's true. These drawdowns tend to be relatively short-lived and can be followed by large gains. +1 And, the perennial question: if one were to quit the PP, what will they use instead? We have to actual...
- Tue Jul 21, 2015 1:08 pm
- Forum: Bonds
- Topic: Performance impact of holding TLT vs bonds directly?
- Replies: 25
- Views: 14934
Re: Performance impact of holding TLT vs bonds directly?
Duration and maturity are different. Yep. It's definitely a little confusing. This article helped me. http://www.investopedia.com/university/advancedbond/advancedbond5.asp That's a good resource. IMO, the word choices are terrible (duration and maturity sound like they should be synonyms), but th...
- Tue Jul 21, 2015 12:51 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Only buy to rebalance, never sell?
- Replies: 10
- Views: 5186
Re: Only buy to rebalance, never sell?
This is similar to the "buy the lagging asset" strategy, which has been discussed previously. I'm not sure I understand the scenario here --- so the investor has a supply of cash that they could invest in the PP to simplify re-balancing, but would prefer not too? I don't know many people w...
- Sat Jul 18, 2015 8:16 pm
- Forum: Bonds
- Topic: Performance impact of holding TLT vs bonds directly?
- Replies: 25
- Views: 14934
Re: Performance impact of holding TLT vs bonds directly?
Duration and maturity are different.