I'm not sure the correct wording of this...but there is no counter party risk. However, there is flat out fraud risk. Stock lending is like the bank and your mortgage. You don't pay the loan, they get your house...and in this case, you simply get your stock back. The main thing to pay attention to i...

Caveat Emptor...if you are going to buy a specialized REIT...make darn sure you read the prospectus in its entirety.

Very important content from Gary and others. A must-read. This suggests dual momentum portfolios outperform in retirement. https://www.dualmomentum.net/2018/07/momentum-solutions-for-retirement.html?m=1 There are a lot of caveats behind the 4% rule and the study it was based on. One would be well a...

A rotational strategy using momentum and various types of bonds funds/ETFs works very well. To execute it you need a source of dividend adjusted prices...which will generally require a subscription and specialized software. Someone who may be interested and cheap might dig into Stockcharts.com to se...

Sophie, I don't think there's anything particularly wrong with Growth stocks, but value stocks have generally performed better in the past, probably for a variety of reasons. Some folks are also not real happy with the fundamental structure of large cap weighted indices like TSM or S&P500, sinc...

Hi all, adding my 2 cents. My leveraged PP is the following: 45% UPRO 35% TMF 20% UGLD I keep it simple and just rebalance annually. Its returned 22.23% CAGR over the past 5 years (2013-2017), here's a performance screenshot: http://www.tightwadweb.com/3x-2013-2017.jpg So far, the first 6 months of...

kbg, Have you walked away from volatility? I moved some money into SVXY after XIV went tits up - using some back of the envelope calculations - but I'm no longer confident in my models - especially since SVXY went to 50% of inverse VIX tracking. I need to spend a weekend and really do the math to d...

Classic 2x: 200K equivalent/16.667 each to the UPRO, TMF, UGLD and 50% to SHY/50K SHY and 150K (50K x3) equivalent everything else Classic 1x: 100K/25% each to SHY, TLT, GLD, SPY KMix 2.1x: 45% VCSH, 28% TQQQ, 13.5% TMF, UGLD Purchase price was at the close 12/29/17 through the close on 7/20/18 2x =...

I'm glad someone flagged the above as deceptive. Let's try a reputable site (and note starting points make a BIG difference): https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-asset-class-allocation 100% Gold vs. 100% US Total Stock Mkt (CAGR) through 5/31/18 1/1/72 Start: 7.47/10.37 1/1/82: 3.13/11.24 ...

KGB, have you ever read Secondhand Time by Svetlana Alexeivich? I haven't yet, but I believe the transition from Socialism to oligarchy was no picnic either, as the oligarchs Stolichnayevery one of the assets the Soviets had left for themselves and left the common people to plant potatoes in every ...

Mark, The book is widely recommended as one of the best on the subject, but it was a heavy read more in the academic style(ish) so be prepared for that. The title is excellent for his general thesis...I won't be a spoiler so I'll stop there. I'm not sure of the author's politics but he pretty much d...

Actually, I just finished reading an 800 pg book on the Russian revolution (A People’s Tragedy). Pretty depressing...and perhaps we are fooling ourselves here. If civil war breaks out you have some major decisions to make and you don’t have the option to fence sit. Heaven help you if you pick the wr...

From Morningstar: 5 year returns TMF to TLT x1.74 TQQQ to QQQ x2.89 UGLD to GLD x9.96 (ouch as the annualized return for GLD has been -1.17 for the 5 year period) If one could have stomached holding TQQQ since it's initial opening they would be sitting on just shy of 320K vs. around 35K for 10K inve...

KevinW wrote: ↑Tue Jul 17, 2018 12:08 am (1) Conventional 4x25 PP for "money I can't afford to lose," meaning more than enough to buy a sensible house and support a bourgeois lifestyle indefinitely, in the event of strife.

All Power to the Soviets! Beware peasants with pitchforks. :-)

According to MStar it's still kicking and has the highly coveted 1 star rating.

I think the horse has been beaten down to glue now.

Kbg is correct that ETF's have a structural advantage regarding tax efficiency. Vanguard is an exception, however. They have a structure (patent protected until 2023) that allows the mutual fund to be as tax efficient as the ETF. https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/ETFs_vs_mutual_funds#Vanguard_funds L...

Hopefully everyone has figured this out...the posts showing gold beating stocks when measured by total return are wrong. End of story. A free market in gold did not exist in the US from the Great Depression to the early 70s (and due to gold's tie to the US dollar and its economic dominance in the wo...

I mean Vanguard’s tax-managed stock funds. See VTMSX, for example. I assume this is directed to me...yes, Vanguard will be using various stock trading/management strategies to minimize taxes. There are quite a few strategies fund managers can use to manage taxes/distributions...I know some and I'm ...

I'm hurt fella's truly...calling me a bold face liar. :) Google away on this issue, tis a well known fact. Here is one of many articles on the issue. https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/investment-products/etf/etfs-tax-efficiency If I was a Boglehead I'm sure I'd be nagging you more about &quo...

Speaking of specific circumstances, several have mentioned they are sitting on losses as they've been holding this stinky stuff since 2011. After doing the math (annual fees, commissions, spreads etc.), it may be worth cashing out GLD, take the loss for tax purpose, wait the required time to avoid ...

I wonder about GLDM vs. GLD's bid/ask spread. If it is even a penny more on GLDM vs. GLD, because it is more thinly traded, and you have to buy 10x the number of shares, here's what you get: Hypothetical 200oz (@$1250 is $250k value) in PP, need 2000 shares GLD or 20,000 shares GLDM. .01 spread on ...

I'm hurt fella's truly...calling me a bold face liar. :) Google away on this issue, tis a well known fact. Here is one of many articles on the issue. https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/investment-products/etf/etfs-tax-efficiency If I was a Boglehead I'm sure I'd be nagging you more about "...

desert, thanks. Yeah, it is quite annoying/frustrating when you run into a website touting gold that has selective dates on the charts they show, especially around the 2011 peak, and then not continuing forward to current day, even though the articles are "current." If that sucks people i...

x1.35 leverage

with regard to Mutual Funds, never ever in a taxable account if there is an equivalent ETF version. MFs can not shelter capital gains due to normal trading/portfolio adjustments etc., ETFs can.