Search found 2002 matches

by Kbg
Sun Dec 07, 2014 1:38 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?
Replies: 576
Views: 229777

Re: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?

Given we do not time between allocations in a PP, I think there is probably a good case to be made for taking the top two or maybe just one of SPY, IWM, EFA and EEM for the 25% stock portion and swapping out using a momentum sort. There is likely long term data that would support as well, but since...
by Kbg
Sun Dec 07, 2014 7:52 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Inflation Spiral
Replies: 15
Views: 5907

Re: Inflation Spiral

There is no downward income trend ala Piketty and I think wages aren't either if all non-wage benefits are included.  The wealth gap is growing, sure, but so long as the bottom grows as well and is better off than 95% of the planet, it's a problem in search of a cure. I think the transition to post...
by Kbg
Sun Dec 07, 2014 7:17 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Inflation Spiral
Replies: 15
Views: 5907

Re: Inflation Spiral

Raising minimum wage in places like CA will just make illegal immigration worse and not solve the lower wage issue. This is because CA (and other states) refuse to enforce employment laws. A high minimum wage will just incentivize employers to not hire legal residents and hire more illegals that th...
by Kbg
Wed Dec 03, 2014 10:55 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Inflation Spiral
Replies: 15
Views: 5907

Re: Inflation Spiral

Its a largely political move - to appeal to the Democratic base.  It ultimately hurts the same people that support it, along with small business owners. Only about 4.3% of workers make the minimum wage (95.7% make more) now, so it will not affect a huge number of workers or substantially drive pric...
by Kbg
Wed Dec 03, 2014 8:38 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?
Replies: 576
Views: 229777

Re: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?

It's not as if large cap stocks can't ever be value; they just tend to be glamor stocks because market-cap weighting in the indexes consistently overvalues them.  It is a pseudo-momentum effect. Since we are in the VP section of this forum and not bound by PP orthodoxy here...it is pretty clear I'm...
by Kbg
Mon Dec 01, 2014 9:16 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?
Replies: 576
Views: 229777

Re: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?

Reub wrote: What would a PP consisting of VBR, SHY, GLD, and EDV look like over the past few years?
Rebalanced Annually

Yr      %
2008 4.4%
2009 1.6%
2010 14.8%
2011 13.9%
2012 4.7%
2013 -4.4%
2014 10.1%

CAGR: 6.31% Max DD -14.54 %
by Kbg
Mon Dec 01, 2014 8:56 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3037
Views: 829996

Re: The GOLD scream room

So everyone get ready to have gold spike down for what I am about to write. Last month I doubled up on gold (DGP) figuring I at least ought to get some tax harvesting out of this year's gold pain as the overall position wasn't going to change except for my Jan rebalance. In any event the old saying,...
by Kbg
Sat Nov 29, 2014 7:05 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?
Replies: 576
Views: 229777

Re: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?

With 1 mo to go... Assets: IWM, TLT, SHY, GLD (Classic PP w/small cap) and XIV (PP w/XIV Twist) and rebalanced quarterly 2x as above only 2x ETFs 3x as above only 3x ETFs 1x PP 4.30/-3.70 DD 2x PP 9.14/-6.92 DD 3x PP 13.61/-9.91 DD 1x Twist 7.41/-10.85 DD 2x Twist 11.22/-12.85 DD 3x Twist 14.72/-14....
by Kbg
Sat Nov 29, 2014 6:17 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Japanese Sovereign Debt Yield Turns Negative
Replies: 11
Views: 3256

Re: Japanese Sovereign Debt Yield Turns Negative

Wow...we are in interesting waters. I'd say when your country is devaluing your currency like crazy you have no choice but to go elsewhere. Either switch your cash to a foreign currency or gold. I checked Yen/Gold and it is actually ~up 8% in Yen. 128Kish in Jan 138Kish now.
by Kbg
Sun Nov 23, 2014 9:35 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?
Replies: 576
Views: 229777

Re: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?

This really makes me want to try it out in a VP! However, I worry that all the buying and selling required for the very frequent rebalancing will incur transaction costs that cut the returns down a lot. I found myself in this position with 3x PP a couple of weeks ago.  Needed to rebalance after jus...
by Kbg
Sat Nov 22, 2014 1:00 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3037
Views: 829996

Re: The GOLD scream room

Don't get me wrong...I am not a gold fan/bug per se, but I am a fan of it in this portfolio construct. See my post about volatility and yours ref the non-rebalanced PP. I know what you're getting at and there can be a case made for having the risk contribution of the PP equalized, but the long-term...
by Kbg
Sat Nov 22, 2014 12:51 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold Market Manipulation is a Myth
Replies: 51
Views: 17620

Re: Gold Market Manipulation is a Myth

Nothing at all suspicious about 9,000 short contracts for gold (20x the normal volume) being dumped on the lunchtime Asian markets in a minute or two (where liquidity is thinnest from a global perspective) at the same time every other day for the last month - right?   http://www.zerohedge.com/news/...
by Kbg
Sat Nov 22, 2014 12:04 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?
Replies: 576
Views: 229777

Re: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?

This really makes me want to try it out in a VP! However, I worry that all the buying and selling required for the very frequent rebalancing will incur transaction costs that cut the returns down a lot. In a tax deferred account quarterly is a good hack, while annually is almost as good and if you ...
by Kbg
Sat Nov 22, 2014 9:25 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?
Replies: 576
Views: 229777

Re: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?

And a follow up to that fantastic last post... :D But kbg, I'm afraid of leverage, everyone says it's bad. Kbg: It is bad when used inappropriately. However, one could do better than a PP by simply using leveraged ETFs at half the weight. A 12.5% allocation to SSO, UBT and DGP = 25% and 7.5% DD over...
by Kbg
Fri Nov 21, 2014 8:59 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?
Replies: 576
Views: 229777

Re: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?

Had the opportunity to review the thread from its beginning and there was a lot of discussion about volatility decay. So let's check out almost 4 years of performance using SHY, DGP, UBT, SSO and their 1x counterparts SHY, GLD, TLT and SPY. Since 1/1/11 Annual Rebalance 1x 19.41/-8.90 DD 2x 50.07/-1...
by Kbg
Sun Nov 16, 2014 3:23 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Permanent Portfolio Without Rebalancing
Replies: 28
Views: 8718

Re: Permanent Portfolio Without Rebalancing

If so, it would be cool because you could choose which PP suited you according to your risk tolerance: the low-volatility version of you couldn't even deal with -10% drawdowns, the high-volatility version for those with more intestinal fortitude and very long time horizons, and the standard one for...
by Kbg
Sun Nov 16, 2014 8:32 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3037
Views: 829996

Re: The GOLD scream room

It sounds like you've been listening to the Boglehead groupies?  Correct you are, sir!  Gold doesn't ever change in real value; only what it is measured against does.  If people demand paper assets more, then gold will go down in nominal price. Don't get me wrong...I am not a gold fan/bug per se, b...
by Kbg
Sun Nov 16, 2014 8:27 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Permanent Portfolio Without Rebalancing
Replies: 28
Views: 8718

Re: Permanent Portfolio Without Rebalancing

This is a great post...I think it amply illustrates that if you stuff a bunch of volatility in a portfolio and rebalance it periodically it's some kind of cool magic. It's also why I have dash of XIV/SVXY in my PP.
by Kbg
Sat Nov 15, 2014 7:03 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Permanent Portfolio Without Rebalancing
Replies: 28
Views: 8718

Re: Permanent Portfolio Without Rebalancing

What is the MaxDD with rebalancing annual and/or bands?
by Kbg
Sat Nov 15, 2014 6:56 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3037
Views: 829996

Re: The GOLD scream room

Can someone help me out here?  Why do people keep referencing the decade after the legalization of gold again as the ringer that won't be repeated again and therefore gold is not a useful asset? I'm cherry picking here but roughly from March 05 to Oct 11 the gold to stock returns were literally a 10...
by Kbg
Sat Nov 15, 2014 3:47 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?
Replies: 576
Views: 229777

Re: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?

Mid 4th quarter update...not sure why the SPY DD is different than posted earlier. A data issue likely. This has not been a good year for volatility or small caps. Just swapping UWM out for SSO bumps up the 2xPP to 13.7/-5.5 DD and the twist to 13.99/-10.75 DD. In any event it has been a good year f...
by Kbg
Wed Nov 12, 2014 6:41 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Asset Allocation & Portfolio Performance
Replies: 1
Views: 1463

Asset Allocation & Portfolio Performance

http://gestaltu.com/2013/10/dynamic-asset-allocation-for-practitioners-part-i-policy-portfolios.html http://mebfaber.com/2013/10/13/asset-allocation-strategies-3/ Two very interesting posts.  The top gets at what works when. The bottom is a comparison of various ports over time. Apologies if any wer...
by Kbg
Tue Nov 11, 2014 9:08 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Asset Volatility Question
Replies: 10
Views: 3380

Re: Asset Volatility Question

Apropos of nothing, I ran some numbers.  These don't really mean anything, but I thought I would calc them just the same. (All numbers current to today - no inflation adjustments) Using 10 year daily data, dividends reinvested (purple verticals) I came up with these numbers: GLD: 9.72% CAGR, 40.52%...
by Kbg
Fri Oct 31, 2014 7:55 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?
Replies: 576
Views: 229777

Re: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?

And now for the fun...

2x w/Twist +13.70%
3x w/Twist +19.79%    8)
by Kbg
Sun Oct 26, 2014 9:55 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?
Replies: 576
Views: 229777

Re: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?

Excellent Mark! There are some interesting backtests out there that advocate a Cash or Bonds and XIV "Barbell Portfolio" meaning super safe and super risky/volatile with periodic rebalancing.