Search found 1349 matches

by Hal
Thu May 05, 2022 2:51 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: William Bernstein on Cash holdings (T-Bills)
Replies: 11
Views: 2913

Re: William Bernstein on Cash holdings (T-Bills)

You will probably find this five part article interesting then.
https://www.idiosyncraticwhisk.com/search?q=bonds
by Hal
Sun May 01, 2022 6:00 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Overseas Gold? 2022
Replies: 18
Views: 4583

Overseas Gold? 2022

> Australia, which thru Covid has shown itself to be authoritarian and insane Not the country of Crocodile Dundees I was told it was. https://texasbulliondepository.gov/ Also consider a rental prop for inflation protection, if you like to stay busy. But your gold will be safe with us.... ::) https:...
by Hal
Fri Apr 29, 2022 9:07 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Overseas Gold? 2022
Replies: 18
Views: 4583

Overseas Gold? 2022

In another thread, ( joypog wrote ) On the gold front... moved to this new thread in the Gold § \DS 🚧 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ps: That's why I like the GoldSmith portfolio. Instead of seeing the individual assets classes swing widely, you just see the pr...
by Hal
Fri Apr 29, 2022 8:25 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: If The Stock Market Crashes Which Asset Will Save Us?
Replies: 34
Views: 8692

Re: If The Stock Market Crashes Which Asset Will Save Us?

Indeed, behavioral risk is my biggest fear with the PP. I'm curious whether my wife and I will have the stomach to handle the upcoming turmoil that the US is heading into (my guess). Psychology is in trying times and I'm not immune. ^^^ Quote of the Week ^^^ and on Bernstein And therein lies the re...
by Hal
Fri Apr 29, 2022 5:32 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: If The Stock Market Crashes Which Asset Will Save Us?
Replies: 34
Views: 8692

Re: If The Stock Market Crashes Which Asset Will Save Us?

For portfolios with 25% in shares...
PP is blue, 25% Shares 75% 10Y Treasuries red

If you take out the inflationary period of the 70's/early 80's they both track similarly.
Appears the PP is just like a 25/75 portfolio hedged against inflation.

Want super high returns? Try something else.
by Hal
Thu Apr 28, 2022 7:02 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Some edge questions for calculating / thinking about my PP
Replies: 6
Views: 1456

Re: Some edge questions for calculating / thinking about my PP

Well, this is what I did years ago. About 1/2 the funds were in a retirement account where you had two choices - actively managed or cash. Went for 50% Cash,25% Shares, 25% Gold. Once I hit 55, could take the funds out and implement a proper PP. Based on Whatcha's comment, how about 25% Shares, 25% ...
by Hal
Wed Apr 27, 2022 8:12 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: If The Stock Market Crashes Which Asset Will Save Us?
Replies: 34
Views: 8692

Re: If The Stock Market Crashes Which Asset Will Save Us?

I'm just getting into the world of PP. I've held random indexes but we had gone pretty high in cash in part due to the pandemic and in part due to wanting to buy a house until the market skyrocketed beyond our willingness to purchase. I read Craig's book and really loved the concept so we're going ...
by Hal
Sun Apr 24, 2022 10:17 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: YouTube Junkie
Replies: 1230
Views: 588400

Re: YouTube Junkie

by Hal
Thu Apr 21, 2022 8:21 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: BelangP's book out
Replies: 23
Views: 2655

Re: BelangP's book out

Similar philosophy....
My notes in blue.
by Hal
Mon Apr 18, 2022 7:22 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: BelangP's book out
Replies: 23
Views: 2655

BelangP's book out

by Hal
Mon Apr 18, 2022 2:54 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Inflation - What are you doing different
Replies: 58
Views: 8396

Re: Inflation - What are you doing different

very well thought out!! might use some of the ideas myself After three years STILL have NOT finished my Permanent Portfolio research and implementation. But in this area I am actually getting things done! Vinny, perhaps you should just buy a Vanguard Target Retirement fund that fits your timing/ris...
by Hal
Sat Apr 09, 2022 5:55 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 341
Views: 140354

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

kwg2005 wrote:
Sat Apr 09, 2022 5:09 pm
I am staring to worry about an actual default in the US in the next 10-20 years.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6IRtjJc0miE
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCzu55W ... QIQ/videos
;)
by Hal
Sat Apr 09, 2022 3:57 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 341
Views: 140354

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

Holding a Global Aggregate Bond fund (Hedged) due to limited choices. Not worried in the slightest.
https://www.vanguard.com.au/adviser/pro ... s/32101/AU

To be honest, feel safer holding Global Bond & Share ETF's than a purely country specific one (even if the country is the US).....
by Hal
Mon Mar 28, 2022 1:12 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: When does PP inflation protection usually kick in?
Replies: 2
Views: 1115

Re: When does PP inflation protection usually kick in?

Here's a starter https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi You may wish to check out John Williams at http://www.shadowstats.com for the non-rigged inflation rate I believe the indicator to watch is the real interest rate. From what I recall, once that goes negative gold tends to incr...
by Hal
Thu Mar 24, 2022 2:11 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Gave up on "pure" Permanent Portfolio in EU
Replies: 10
Views: 2689

Re: Gave up on "pure" Permanent Portfolio in EU

I think if one likes HB's thinking about the bond component, it would be good to use US Treasuries no matter where in the world one resides. Because they are the world's safe haven investment. So far anyway. Thoughts/rebuttals? +1 Also gold is negatively correlated to US Bonds. Inflation goes drama...
by Hal
Tue Mar 22, 2022 5:05 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Gave up on "pure" Permanent Portfolio in EU
Replies: 10
Views: 2689

Re: Gave up on "pure" Permanent Portfolio in EU

Your allocation reminds me of Jim Rickards suggestion....
Think he had land as well.
by Hal
Mon Mar 21, 2022 4:49 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP is Totally Obsolete!!!
Replies: 62
Views: 20972

Re: PP is Totally Obsolete!!!

Hi MediumTex,

All the best from down under.

PS: This video seemed appropriate ::)
https://vimeo.com/313769282
by Hal
Sat Mar 19, 2022 5:28 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Ray Dalio video Principles for dealing with a changing world order.
Replies: 13
Views: 2596

Re: Ray Dalio video Principles for dealing with a changing world order.

25% Gold held off-shore. Any thoughts on this since the Perth mint doesn't seem quite as appealing as it once was? Research SGPMX. I have had very good experiences dealing with them. A family member also went to Singapore to physically remove some gold from the vault to check if they are legit. The...
by Hal
Thu Mar 17, 2022 3:33 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Russian PP
Replies: 4
Views: 1686

Re: Russian PP

HB addressed this in his radio show when speaking to an Indian caller. He stated that " If everything went kablooey you still had your gold." Over the years I have come to the opinion that the PP is a failsafe portfolio, not an invincible one. In any of the four economic climates, it will survive. B...
by Hal
Tue Mar 15, 2022 11:03 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3688
Views: 1654884

Re: The GOLD scream room

Against the Pacific Peso (AUD), Gold is the only thing going up ;D
25% VGS, 25% Gold 50% VBND
by Hal
Thu Mar 10, 2022 4:48 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Putin Invades Ukraine II
Replies: 1159
Views: 825250

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

by Hal
Thu Mar 10, 2022 2:17 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Ray Dalio video Principles for dealing with a changing world order.
Replies: 13
Views: 2596

Re: Ray Dalio video Principles for dealing with a changing world order.

Great video. The PP is designed to work when the USA is "on top". If that time is coming to an end, potentially quickly (as Dalio says, it starts slowly and then moves quickly), what should we do? Probably what non-US PP holders do. Eg 25% VGS, 50% VBND, 25% Gold held off-shore. Maybe some extra ph...
by Hal
Thu Mar 10, 2022 2:03 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Ray Dalio video Principles for dealing with a changing world order.
Replies: 13
Views: 2596

Re: Ray Dalio video Principles for dealing with a changing world order.

Great video. The PP is designed to work when the USA is "on top". If that time is coming to an end, potentially quickly (as Dalio says, it starts slowly and then moves quickly), what should we do? Probably what non-US PP holders do. Eg 25% VGS, 50% VBND, 25% Gold held off-shore. Maybe some extra ph...