Search found 193 matches

by LazyInvestor
Sun Apr 30, 2017 1:29 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Nobody believes in the Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 163
Views: 87441

Re: Nobody believes in the Permanent Portfolio

I appreciate the work you are trying to do on the Bogleheads forum in that thread, but it's a waste of time. I've posted over there (in that thread even), and they are extremely close-minded. It's going to take a real sustained downturn before those guys get over their hubris. I don't mind what the...
by LazyInvestor
Wed Mar 22, 2017 7:17 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Nobody believes in the Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 163
Views: 87441

Re: Nobody believes in the Permanent Portfolio

Bernstein was right that it's not easy sticking to PP when everyone else around you is getting rich in the equity market heavy portfolios.
by LazyInvestor
Sun Feb 12, 2017 6:47 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: How Overvalued Are Stocks?
Replies: 61
Views: 44867

Re: How Overvalued Are Stocks?

Bogle says expected long term equity returns are ~2% real taking into account overvaluation.

I don't follow this since according to his formula, for example, European market should return the same but if I look at the charts European has under-performed US significantly.
by LazyInvestor
Sun Feb 12, 2017 6:42 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Golden Butterfly Portfolio
Replies: 539
Views: 365915

Re: Golden Butterfly Portfolio

What are other reasonable SCV alternatives in a portfolio such as this? For example, plugging in 10% REITS 10% EM gives me pretty much the same results as SCV and it seems more diversified?
by LazyInvestor
Thu Jan 19, 2017 3:57 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Estate tax & Trump
Replies: 30
Views: 17688

Re: Estate tax & Trump

I think those in 0.2% have all their money in trusts and similar legal entities so that none of their money is touched by estate tax. I think estate tax hits primarily those who barely made it and probably have not realized yet that they should use some means to protect their money, that is, probabl...
by LazyInvestor
Thu Jan 19, 2017 1:24 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Estate tax & Trump
Replies: 30
Views: 17688

Estate tax & Trump

Does anyone know if there are any expected changes to the estate tax with Trump administration?
by LazyInvestor
Tue Jan 17, 2017 3:01 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Political risk and EU Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 7
Views: 7485

Re: Political risk and EU Permanent Portfolio

Also note, I guess your country is a typical EU socialist/welfare country with loads of safety net, pensions, etc. and quite low personal savings/investing capital. You might want to go through an extensive calculation of how much this welfare safety net is worth and to consider the total as your fi...
by LazyInvestor
Tue Jan 17, 2017 2:46 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Political risk and EU Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 7
Views: 7485

Re: Political risk and EU Permanent Portfolio

I'd say either run a US PP or stick with a Boglehead's portfolio if you are non-US person. The peculiar connection between USD as a world reserve currency and gold plays a role not to be ignored in a PP. You can see right now, for example, that GBP or Turkish Lira are tanking but gold is not really ...
by LazyInvestor
Sun Nov 20, 2016 12:20 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: International diversification
Replies: 11
Views: 8801

Re: International diversification

Can you tell us a bit about ways and costs of buying bullion in Singapore and costs related to storing it in Malca-Amit vaults you mentioned?
by LazyInvestor
Sun Nov 20, 2016 12:18 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Trump and investment taxes
Replies: 3
Views: 4269

Trump and investment taxes

Is anyone aware if there will be any changes to taxes with Trump? In particular any changes to capital gains, dividends, and estate tax? If yes, shall these changes also affect NRAs and how long does it usually take to pass and implement such changes in US?
by LazyInvestor
Sun Nov 20, 2016 12:16 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: International diversification
Replies: 11
Views: 8801

Re: International diversification

You should rethink your ideas taking into account the following two points: - Gold is a part of PP exactly because the rest is in a FIAT currency. If you're looking for a hard currency then don't look at CHF or SGD but into more gold as it's the only hard currency left. Or maybe Bitcoin as it's a ha...
by LazyInvestor
Thu Sep 29, 2016 4:48 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Blog site closed
Replies: 7
Views: 4147

Re: PP Blog site closed

This forum is also quite quiet recently. It's a pity since it's critical IMO to have a supportive community during the rough times in order to stick with a portfolio such as PP.
by LazyInvestor
Mon Sep 26, 2016 8:46 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: How does Gold function in a non-US PP
Replies: 6
Views: 4847

Re: How does Gold function in a non-US PP

If in a "dodgy" country you can run US PP or any other reasonable Bogleheads portfolio such as US, European, Singaporean, and so on. This decision should be driven by, for example, which currency/government you trust more with your fixed income or maybe long term planning needs or a correl...
by LazyInvestor
Mon Sep 26, 2016 2:49 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: How does Gold function in a non-US PP
Replies: 6
Views: 4847

Re: How does Gold function in a non-US PP

It's a tradition in crappy economies to just convert whatever you have in USD and keep it outside of the country if at all possible. For the countries where it might sound reasonable to implement a PP, I'd still not go that route exactly because of what you are pointing out. HB has pointed out that ...
by LazyInvestor
Wed Sep 21, 2016 11:47 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Investment Risk Tolerance Quiz
Replies: 26
Views: 17147

Re: Investment Risk Tolerance Quiz

30 with standard PP
by LazyInvestor
Mon Aug 22, 2016 10:24 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Estate tax in US?
Replies: 3
Views: 3593

Re: Estate tax in US?

Interesting, thanks, it's seems then it won't be repealed any time soon :-(
by LazyInvestor
Sun Aug 21, 2016 10:50 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Estate tax in US?
Replies: 3
Views: 3593

Estate tax in US?

As a non-American I am curious how you Americans feel about the estate tax? To me it seems as the most un-American tax that you can come up with - you spend your whole life building your American dream (while paying income and bunch of other taxes), and then when you want to leave what you built to ...
by LazyInvestor
Sat Aug 20, 2016 4:42 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: What would the PP look like without fiat currency and central banks?
Replies: 19
Views: 12152

Re: What would the PP look like without fiat currency and central banks?

I think we would use that Talmud portfolio 1/3 gold 1/3 land 1/3 equity.
by LazyInvestor
Tue Aug 16, 2016 1:57 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Feedback on a EU/US/SWE PP mix
Replies: 6
Views: 7978

Re: Feedback on a EU/US/SWE PP mix

You'll be exposed to various currencies and international trends through VT (or maybe better Ireland-based VWRD). Gold is also a form of currency diversification. Once you grasp the relation between these, as well as the relationship of USD to other currencies, you might end up with a conclusion tha...
by LazyInvestor
Fri Aug 12, 2016 4:08 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Feedback on a EU/US/SWE PP mix
Replies: 6
Views: 7978

Re: Feedback on a EU/US/SWE PP mix

As an expat with no clear retirement location, I'd just go with a cheap US PP or a Bogleheads portfolio such as 60% total world etf 40% mix of intermediate treasuries of a selection of developed economies with good standing.
by LazyInvestor
Wed Mar 16, 2016 10:04 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Golden Butterfly Portfolio
Replies: 539
Views: 365915

Re: Golden Butterfly Portfolio

Thanks, missed the calculator, I'll check it out  :) awesome website!
by LazyInvestor
Tue Mar 15, 2016 4:26 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Golden Butterfly Portfolio
Replies: 539
Views: 365915

Re: Golden Butterfly Portfolio

Using your portfolio finder tool

-10.81 I-VAL   I-SML LTT 5-T GLD 6.59
by LazyInvestor
Tue Mar 15, 2016 4:06 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Golden Butterfly Portfolio
Replies: 539
Views: 365915

Re: Golden Butterfly Portfolio

Tyler, what you are suggesting is something half way towards Merriman's portfolio for the equity portion of PP. So, can you please backtest it with the Simplified Ultimate Buy and Hold https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=38374 That is, instead of allocating 40% to 20/20 LB/SV, can you d...
by LazyInvestor
Sat Feb 27, 2016 11:50 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Saudi Arabia Could Run out of $ in Five Years
Replies: 9
Views: 3243

Re: Saudi Arabia Could Run out of $ in Five Years

Maybe oil price will go up soon...
by LazyInvestor
Tue Feb 23, 2016 10:44 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Pope Francis / Catholic Church
Replies: 13
Views: 7950

Re: Pope Francis / Catholic Church

This pope sounds like a Marxist.