Search found 1111 matches

by dragoncar
Thu Nov 10, 2016 8:13 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Tallying of early votes
Replies: 20
Views: 8442

Re: Tallying of early votes

Any chance of getting caught happens well after the fact, but the penalties might be considerable (misrepresentation on a government form). It's sort of like cheating on your taxes. Lots of people do it, but more avoid it because even though the probability of getting caught is small, the penalties...
by dragoncar
Tue Nov 08, 2016 12:23 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Tallying of early votes
Replies: 20
Views: 8442

Re: Tallying of early votes

That makes more sense. I thought in 2000 they were saying that mail-in ballots basically were never counted unless the race was close enough that it would make a difference. That was a bit upsetting to me at the time. Gore won 270+ electoral votes if the FL Supreme Court had decided to wait to coun...
by dragoncar
Mon Nov 07, 2016 11:40 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Newbie question
Replies: 22
Views: 11349

Re: Newbie question

I use individual bonds, but check your trading platform/brokerage and see how they plan to make money off the trade. For example, I bought some using TD Ameritrade and it when I went to sell I got so-called "bids" that were 5% below the expected value. Wouldn't want to do a lot of trading at the cos...
by dragoncar
Mon Nov 07, 2016 10:30 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Tallying of early votes
Replies: 20
Views: 8442

Re: Tallying of early votes

As far as I know, it's only ballots that have been returned and party ID that is tallied, not the actual vote counted. So for instance, hypothetically if 675K registered R's, 700K registered D's and 550K I's have returned early votes, they know the numbers returned, but they don't report who each p...
by dragoncar
Mon Nov 07, 2016 11:39 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Taxi Drivers are Racist!
Replies: 3
Views: 3478

Re: Taxi Drivers are Racist!

In restaurants, the differences in tipping could be explained by mutually destructive preconceptions (black people tip less therefore I give them worse service so they tip less). Is there evidence they also tip less for taxis? If a bunch of taxis passed me I think I'd tip more to the one that finall...
by dragoncar
Tue Nov 01, 2016 10:54 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Goodbye
Replies: 27
Views: 17314

Re: Goodbye

Just for the record, I still pop in now and then, though mostly as a lurker. While I will agree that the level of discourse is not up to its former standards, my main reason for not posting as much is simply that a lot of what is being posted are topics that have either been beaten to death or that...
by dragoncar
Wed Oct 05, 2016 11:59 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Hurricane Matthew
Replies: 6
Views: 4219

Re: Hermine

It's levioSAAHH
by dragoncar
Fri Sep 23, 2016 4:23 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Investment Risk Tolerance Quiz
Replies: 26
Views: 16751

Re: Investment Risk Tolerance Quiz

I got a perfect score (100) and think the test was very well written
by dragoncar
Fri Sep 23, 2016 1:22 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Hand Holding
Replies: 60
Views: 23548

Re: Hand Holding

25 basis points is too much for a single raise. Just do 5 bp and nobody will bat an eye. If they did 5bp each quarter this year we'd almost be at 1/4 point and no overreaction. Boil the frog
by dragoncar
Thu Sep 22, 2016 1:01 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Investment Risk Tolerance Quiz
Replies: 26
Views: 16751

Re: Investment Risk Tolerance Quiz

The classics questions are the ones with equal expected value, so would you rather have $500 or a 50/50 chance at $0/$1000. That makes sense I guess. I'd typically pick a sure thing all else being equal. Now if it's $500 vs 50/50 chance of $2000/0 I'd flip the coin. Usually you keep adjusting the va...
by dragoncar
Wed Sep 21, 2016 9:59 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Investment Risk Tolerance Quiz
Replies: 26
Views: 16751

Re: Investment Risk Tolerance Quiz

I didn't even know what they were getting at with the whole "some experts think metals will go up do you sell your bonds?" Uh no I don't change my AA based on what "some experts" think
by dragoncar
Wed Sep 21, 2016 2:10 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Investment Risk Tolerance Quiz
Replies: 26
Views: 16751

Re: Investment Risk Tolerance Quiz

Above average, but possibly a $200 gain is insignificant compared to my portfolio. If they example values were 10-100 times bigger I'd be far more cautious
by dragoncar
Fri Aug 26, 2016 9:50 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?
Replies: 571
Views: 329563

Re: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?

I understand futures in general but have no experience with them. I'd be interested in seeing a play by play for any paper trades you do to understand the mechanics involved
by dragoncar
Thu Aug 04, 2016 4:55 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: MachineGhost's Research Resort
Replies: 212
Views: 94322

Re: MachineGhost's Research Resort

As my final post before the world-as-we-know-it ends, I thought it was fitting to announce that I was finally able to crack the rebalancing bands issue and backtest for the optimal thresholds to use. <drum roll> The optimal rebalancing bands are 12%-13% on a end of year basis. That means rebalancin...
by dragoncar
Sat Jul 23, 2016 12:26 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?
Replies: 571
Views: 329563

Re: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?

That's amazing. There's still counterparty risk, of course, but I see why it's relatively insignificant
by dragoncar
Fri Jul 22, 2016 3:33 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?
Replies: 571
Views: 329563

Re: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?

How do futures contracts eliminate counterparty risk? What happens if there is a breach of contract?
by dragoncar
Tue Jul 19, 2016 11:31 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Strongtowns.org Antifragile series
Replies: 77
Views: 33136

Re: Strongtowns.org Antifragile series

Not to mention their effective tax rate will be nowhere near 40%. Maybe marginal.
by dragoncar
Mon Jul 18, 2016 2:12 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Things about the PP that do not make sense to me
Replies: 36
Views: 19671

Re: Things about the PP that do not make sense to me

Others have proposed allocations based on duration or volatility, but I think they are still fairly close to the 4x25. I personally agree the PP is slightly skewed towards outperformance in bad times, but you have to remember that HB considered your salary to be the number one wealth generator. So i...
by dragoncar
Wed Jul 13, 2016 3:31 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Oh Come On
Replies: 109
Views: 43634

Re: Oh Come On

And so it unbegins
by dragoncar
Tue Jul 12, 2016 11:54 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Oh Come On
Replies: 109
Views: 43634

Re: Oh Come On

and so it begins
by dragoncar
Sun Jul 10, 2016 3:01 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Social Security Withheld vs Privatization
Replies: 9
Views: 4646

Re: Social Security Withheld vs Privatization

Machine ghost is for machine ghost
by dragoncar
Fri Jul 08, 2016 6:23 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Sprott Intends to Make Exchange Offers for Central GoldTrust and Silver Bullion
Replies: 192
Views: 97151

Re: Sprott Intends to Make Exchange Offers for Central GoldTrust and Silver Bullion

yes, its the same deal as GTU was

although I only have it in tax-deferred right now (but that saves me from having to file that stupid form I hate)
by dragoncar
Fri Jul 08, 2016 3:18 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Oh Come On
Replies: 109
Views: 43634

Re: Oh Come On

To those who were thinking of abandoning the PP during the dark times, I have some advice: believe in yourself

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F2ZShmt19uQ
by dragoncar
Fri Jul 08, 2016 12:33 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Oh Come On
Replies: 109
Views: 43634

Re: Oh Come On

it's killing me

I must have PP Stockholm syndrome at this point
by dragoncar
Thu Jul 07, 2016 11:41 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Dallas shooting
Replies: 33
Views: 10491

Re: Dallas shooting

If only open carry were legal in Dallas, citizens would have stopped this immediately.