Search found 656 matches
- Mon Jan 25, 2016 2:32 pm
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: New rebalance study
- Replies: 3
- Views: 3127
Re: New rebalance study
My plan for re-balancing is by buying the new assets, this to avoid any unnecessary taxes. That plus reinvesting distributions in the trailing asset is what they recommend. But that also note that rebalancing can increase return on top of that (which would be quite infrequent due to rebalancing wit...
- Mon Jan 25, 2016 12:32 am
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: New rebalance study
- Replies: 3
- Views: 3127
New rebalance study
Live soft posted the following link over at Bogleheads.
http://www.able2pay.com/rebalancing.html
Quite different from PP, but interesting, esp for non-PPs.
http://www.able2pay.com/rebalancing.html
Quite different from PP, but interesting, esp for non-PPs.
- Sun Jan 24, 2016 4:09 pm
- Forum: Bonds
- Topic: Bonds vs Deflation
- Replies: 8
- Views: 4945
Re: Bonds vs Deflation
This real return. Deflation of 1% +1% to long term real rates. Short term rates 0-ish or less real (-1% to start, before fees.) Stocks probably drop (deferred purchases as items cheaper in the future; companies reduce prices and salaries; future earning projections down not up.) Existing debt, issu...
- Sun Jan 24, 2016 1:31 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Thoughts on Asset Price Inflation
- Replies: 6
- Views: 2897
Re: Thoughts on Asset Price Inflation
+1Pointedstick wrote: I'm 100% with you on asset price inflation being the politically-acceptable substitute for consumer goods price inflation. I don't know what the future holds either. Interesting times we live in.
- Tue Jan 19, 2016 12:41 pm
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Momentum Butterfly portfolio
- Replies: 23
- Views: 12080
Re: Momentum Butterfly portfolio
After a year of passive investment using the Permanent Portfolio I frew tired of loosing my hard earned money. So in November I switched to an Absolute Momentum Portfolio and begun worrying about my money on a daily basis. When the market tanked at the beginning of the year I sold. The following da...
- Tue Jan 19, 2016 12:30 pm
- Forum: Other Discussions
- Topic: Portfolio Charts
- Replies: 120
- Views: 43495
Re: Portfolio Charts
Have you thought of reporting the optimum for different start/end periods? Might highlight that there isn't a set optimum.... One set: All start 1972 End points: 82, 92, 2002, 2012, 2015 Other set: Start 72, 82, 92, 2002 End 2015 And then with your remaining copious free time, optimum at the...
- Mon Jan 18, 2016 12:26 am
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: The "trend following" Permanent Portfolio signals
- Replies: 17
- Views: 10618
Re: The "trend following" Permanent Portfolio signals
Wh did you pick trend following over moving averages? (Did link to a moving aberages study even.)
Why moving to cash? I played around a bit with moving averages at portfolio visualizer, and switching to int term treasures instead of cash helped.
What with ITT yielding what cash used to....
Why moving to cash? I played around a bit with moving averages at portfolio visualizer, and switching to int term treasures instead of cash helped.
What with ITT yielding what cash used to....
- Sun Jan 17, 2016 11:59 pm
- Forum: Other Discussions
- Topic: The Trouble With Bernie
- Replies: 26
- Views: 6596
Re: The Trouble With Bernie
Sanders definitely electable. I don't see congress shifting, so probably not too dramatic changes in laws.
Trump with a republican congress?
Trump with a republican congress?
- Fri Jan 15, 2016 9:57 am
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: study of 90-10 portfolios
- Replies: 13
- Views: 9006
Re: study of 90-10 portfolios
Bernstein talks about never being less than 25% stocks (or more than 75%.). What duration bonds / include a cash emergency fund? Around these here parts, the default for "Bonds" implies long duration treasuries.... All that being said, I'd go simple route and put into one of S&P 500, t...
- Mon Jan 11, 2016 11:31 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Average Investor Return for 2015 was -3.09%
- Replies: 9
- Views: 7345
Re: Average Investor Return for 2015 was -3.09%
My bad results were solely due to long bonds and gold. If I hadn't touched those, I'd have been flat for the year. My losers (rough order): Gold (-10ish) Small Cap Value (-5%ish) Total International TIPS Long Term Treasury Gainers: Total Bond Index US Large/Mid Cap index (Russell 1000) Short term B...
- Fri Jan 08, 2016 9:38 pm
- Forum: Stocks
- Topic: Stock scream room
- Replies: 1438
- Views: 665450
Re: Stock scream room
I keep thinking how much more money everyone else will have....
... yeah, definitely losers too, but.....
... yeah, definitely losers too, but.....
- Wed Jan 06, 2016 1:57 pm
- Forum: Gold
- Topic: The GOLD scream room
- Replies: 3693
- Views: 1782913
Re: The GOLD scream room
We want it to go to $500? Not me......
Staying at $1,000 sounds better.
Staying at $1,000 sounds better.
- Mon Jan 04, 2016 11:31 pm
- Forum: Other Discussions
- Topic: Democratic discomfort on the taxes that would actually fund their ideas
- Replies: 30
- Views: 12273
Re: Democratic discomfort on the taxes that would actually fund their ideas
Since this thread is talking about the cost of health care... While it's been over 10 years, I recall our out of pocket cost was higher for the home birth than for a hospital birth....TennPaGa wrote: Congratulations on the new baby, PS!
Out of curiosity... Did you and your wife consider a home birth?
- Mon Jan 04, 2016 7:51 pm
- Forum: Stocks
- Topic: Foreign Markets Take A Pounding
- Replies: 6
- Views: 5586
Re: Foreign Markets Take A Pounding
Get at least my one day of desired tracking error this year....
Even with 40-ish percent in stocks having 50-ish percent in gold/LTT/"cash" (short-term bond) helps on days like this.
Which in the scheme of things, isn't that big a change by itself.
Even with 40-ish percent in stocks having 50-ish percent in gold/LTT/"cash" (short-term bond) helps on days like this.
Which in the scheme of things, isn't that big a change by itself.
- Tue Dec 29, 2015 11:28 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Any Changes for the New Year?
- Replies: 27
- Views: 13562
Re: Any Changes for the New Year?
Pug, That's a very good question. In the end I think the major item for me is the lack of potential return going forward, possibly for decades, of short term treasuries/cash. So more than anything it is to separate out a rainy day cash portion and take the 25% that I currently have dedicated to c...
- Tue Dec 29, 2015 4:57 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Any Changes for the New Year?
- Replies: 27
- Views: 13562
Re: Any Changes for the New Year?
While small is a small percentage of total stock market, if in a tax advantages account, look at going with a large balanced fund (S&P 500, Wiltshire(?) 1000, ....) instead of total stock market to have more distinct large vs small.
- Tue Dec 29, 2015 11:38 am
- Forum: Other Discussions
- Topic: Portfolio Charts
- Replies: 120
- Views: 43495
Re: Portfolio Charts
I propose one mega SWR chart with all of the lazy portfolios on one chart. With the bars lined up from tallest to shortest, left-to-right. Sort based on the 30 year horizon (they might not sort the same way for all decades). Different colors for each portfolio, too. Ah -- now that's a good idea. I'...
- Mon Dec 28, 2015 5:23 pm
- Forum: Other Discussions
- Topic: Portfolio Charts
- Replies: 120
- Views: 43495
Re: Portfolio Charts
Maybe this has been mentioned, but in the pre-defined portfolios, such as http://portfoliocharts.com/portfolio/merriman-ultimate/, the data includes CAGR, Average Return, and Standard Deviation, while the Pixel Chart doesn't (if the URL copying works -- https://onedrive.live.com/view.aspx?cid=946d7a...
- Mon Dec 28, 2015 12:52 pm
- Forum: Stocks
- Topic: Stocks: fighting the pull of recency/past performance
- Replies: 14
- Views: 9979
Re: Stocks: fighting the pull of recency/past performance
Looking at these great charts, can someone make a good case for the PP vs. The Golden Butterfly Portfolio? ..... <snip>...... One thing that wasn't so easy was trying to split the stock allocation into a 50-50 Large Blend, Small Value combo within a 401k. Adds another level of complexity to it. My ...
- Mon Dec 28, 2015 12:55 am
- Forum: Stocks
- Topic: Stocks: fighting the pull of recency/past performance
- Replies: 14
- Views: 9979
Re: Stocks: fighting the pull of recency/past performance
I'm curious how the GB measures up to Merriman? Also I'd be a little cautious about any stock heavy portfolio right now with the way that the market is behaving. Even these. Only here is 40% stocks considered stock heavy.... :) As for comparison with Merriman, if want to put in all the details, ca...
- Wed Dec 23, 2015 3:57 pm
- Forum: Bonds
- Topic: LTT's Pullback
- Replies: 8
- Views: 4357
Re: LTT's Pullback
Haven't hit a rebalance band. Although my PPish portfolio is "different" - have LTT in VUSUX (Vanguard Long Term Treasury mutual fund), whose duration is really short by PP LTT standards (~16 years.)
It's down 0.31% YTD (12/22/2015.)
It's down 0.31% YTD (12/22/2015.)
- Fri Dec 18, 2015 3:39 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: PP now beating SP500 YTD
- Replies: 61
- Views: 29596
Re: PP now beating SP500 YTD
We'll see, but I thought no PP has a bit more catching up to do. LTT might pass SP500 though.Libertarian666 wrote: How is it going now? I see the market is down and gold is up...
- Tue Dec 08, 2015 12:08 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: MachineGhost's Research Depot
- Replies: 52
- Views: 20142
Re: Heterodox "All Weather" Portfolios
Thanks! Looking forward to stock tilts away from S&P 500 helping again....
- Sat Dec 05, 2015 11:22 am
- Forum: Other Discussions
- Topic: Religion Of Peace Visits California
- Replies: 120
- Views: 30342
Re: Religion Of Peace Visits California
Yes, interesting article. Thanks for sharing.
- Wed Aug 19, 2015 1:23 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: I keep seeing GLD being recommended over IAU
- Replies: 13
- Views: 6060
Re: I keep seeing GLD being recommended over IAU
isn't the main issue not with iau itself, but that iau is managed by the same company as a couple other popular (and harder to find alternatives for) PP etf's. and you end up with a "to many eggs in one basket" problem if you hold iau as well? Yup - TLT and IAU both from iShares. I use VU...