Search found 656 matches
- Sat Jul 30, 2016 2:26 pm
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Golden Butterfly Portfolio
- Replies: 539
- Views: 362494
Re: Golden Butterfly Portfolio
Let me preface this comment with the following: I have nothing against the GB as I have benefited from a 70/30 allocation since 2008/9. My only concern with PP investors transitioning to equities at this time is I am selling stocks to rebalance. We cannot ignore the fact that we are in the midst of...
- Fri Jul 29, 2016 4:31 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Permanent Portfolio vs. All-Weather - an in-depth analysis
- Replies: 54
- Views: 42686
Re: Permanent Portfolio vs. All-Weather - an in-depth analysis
Congrats. And thanks for sharing your numbers. I have a similar (overall) allocation across all my retirement accounts -- roughly 50% stocks, 30% "Bonds" (not just LTT), 15% Gold, 5% Cash. With (depending on account) some tilt to SCV, REIT, Intl (ok, technically tilting to US as not 50% In...
- Fri Jul 29, 2016 12:45 pm
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Golden Butterfly Portfolio
- Replies: 539
- Views: 362494
Re: Golden Butterfly Portfolio
Regarding the GB: if something looks too good to be true... SCV backtests so well because of the very high returns over the last 40 years and because of the low correlation. The holy grail basically. Both are unlikely to repeat themselves. Yes, and the PP is also not likely to repeat the same succe...
- Thu Jul 28, 2016 1:48 pm
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Golden Butterfly Portfolio
- Replies: 539
- Views: 362494
Re: Golden Butterfly Portfolio
Tyler actually replaced Small Cap Value with Small Cap Blend in the version of the GB he said he himself has implemented. Aside from the lengthy thread on GB here there are two other equally epic ones on the Mr. Money Mustache and Early Retirement Extreme forums and I don't recall on which of them ...
- Thu Jul 28, 2016 12:54 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: IRA vs. Taxable for each PP asset class
- Replies: 16
- Views: 8876
Re: IRA vs. Taxable for each PP asset class
Other points: * Dividend yielding securities yield more than cash nowadays (check after tax returns) * Cash outside of most retirement accounts (often/generally) yields more than within (online savings, CDs, I-Bonds, ...) * I-Bonds interest tax free until sold; tax free if do qualified things with t...
- Wed Jul 27, 2016 11:18 pm
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Golden Butterfly Portfolio
- Replies: 539
- Views: 362494
Re: Golden Butterfly Portfolio
I've been spending some more time looking at the GB and various iterations and am wondering why Desert's variation hasn't gotten more discussion. With the obvious caveat that backtesting only goes so far when I run the numbers comparing the GB with Desert's version the latter comes out well ahead o...
- Tue Jul 26, 2016 1:33 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Permanent Portfolio vs. All-Weather - an in-depth analysis
- Replies: 54
- Views: 42686
Re: Permanent Portfolio vs. All-Weather - an in-depth analysis
How much of PP2 out-performance is Size vs Value?
Would be interesting how the Golden Butterfly (20% SP 500 / 20% SCV) for the 40% stocks compares for these metrics.
Would be interesting how the Golden Butterfly (20% SP 500 / 20% SCV) for the 40% stocks compares for these metrics.
- Sun Jul 24, 2016 9:05 pm
- Forum: Stocks
- Topic: How about US mid-caps?
- Replies: 17
- Views: 19123
Re: How about US mid-caps?
I assume familiar with Mel Lindenauers 'Unloved Mid-Caps' on Bogleheads? The original (2000) : http://socialize.morningstar.com/NewSocialize/forums/t/27802.aspx?PageIndex=1 Discussions from 2014 (https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=137723) and 2015 (https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/view...
- Thu Jul 21, 2016 8:25 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Permanent Portfolio vs. All-Weather - an in-depth analysis
- Replies: 54
- Views: 42686
Re: Permanent Portfolio vs. All-Weather - an in-depth analysis
Just as a general rule, 40% in any one asset is too much. It really doesn't matter what that asset is. Swensen maintains that any one class should be between 5%-30%. Do you think the Golden Butterfly violates this rule by having 40% in stocks split 20% to large cap and 20% to small value? I believe...
- Thu Jul 21, 2016 12:25 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Permanent Portfolio vs. All-Weather - an in-depth analysis
- Replies: 54
- Views: 42686
Re: Permanent Portfolio vs. All-Weather - an in-depth analysis
>> 15% VFITX (T-bills) I think this should be: 15% VFITX (Intermediate-term treasuries) Definitely great stuff -- thanks for sharing your data. And as per my apparent new Mantra, accounting for emergency fund (cash).... Or does All-Weather folks say to not keep separate cash / emergency fund on hand...
- Mon Jul 18, 2016 10:51 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Things about the PP that do not make sense to me
- Replies: 36
- Views: 20004
Re: Things about the PP that do not make sense to me
The PP is one of the few portfolios that can include your emergency cash as part of the portfolio. (not everyone does, of course.) If include, retirement accounts may be 30/30/30/10 with emergency funds outside the 401(k) or IRA rounding out the Cash allocation. Also, as Clacy says, the 5 20's, with...
- Sun Jul 17, 2016 6:04 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Scott Burns' Co on the PP
- Replies: 56
- Views: 30710
Re: Scott Burns' Co on the PP
MG, Just jumping in to say that if you are really saving 50% of your income, you may not need great investment returns. That is a great savings rate. A vehicle for growing them modestly in real terms should do the trick, especially because you don't seem like the kind of guy who needs a lot of luxu...
- Sat Jul 16, 2016 5:12 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: MachineGhost's Research Resort
- Replies: 212
- Views: 95524
Re: MachineGhost's Research Resort
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2770897 Go to Tables 3 and 4 to get the bottom line. And here is the verbal generic findings Our results suggest that the optimal risky portfolio is approximately 76% bonds, 8% gold, 7% emerging markets, 4% U.S. stock, 4% real estate, and 1% platin...
- Sat Jul 16, 2016 1:17 pm
- Forum: Other Discussions
- Topic: Savings Rates by Wealth Class
- Replies: 13
- Views: 7668
Re: Savings Rates by Wealth Class
Including company match but not Mortgage principle, around 10% of gross; ~14% if include Mortgage Principle.
[Edit: added 'of gross'; Edit2: added % inc. Mortgage Principle - helps me feel slightly better here on the bottom of the saving range... .]
[Edit: added 'of gross'; Edit2: added % inc. Mortgage Principle - helps me feel slightly better here on the bottom of the saving range... .]
- Fri Jul 15, 2016 2:13 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Vanguard Sucks
- Replies: 19
- Views: 9449
Re: Vanguard Sucks
Mine have been merged. Months ago if I recall.MachineGhost wrote:Wasn't Vanguard supposed to merge the separate Mutual Fund and Brokerage accounts? I still have them both.
- Thu Jul 14, 2016 3:46 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Vanguard Sucks
- Replies: 19
- Views: 9449
Re: Vanguard Sucks
Been happy with my Wellesley.MachineGhost wrote:I picked up Wellesley today (thanks, Reub!) at Vanguard primarily for sovereign risk diversification with the corporate bonds. I did not know that they focus on high yield and dividend growers for the stock portion, so that is very nice and useful!
- Wed Jul 13, 2016 11:30 pm
- Forum: Gold
- Topic: The Golden Dilemma
- Replies: 20
- Views: 9610
Re: The Golden Dilemma
I'd hope I'd get out before 'obliterated', but yes.Kriegsspiel wrote:I'm cool with the value of my gold being obliterated, if the trade-off is that we are able to mine asteroids.
- Wed Jul 13, 2016 11:27 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Scott Burns' Co on the PP
- Replies: 56
- Views: 30710
Re: Scott Burns' Co on the PP
The comparison of the 60/40 returns to the 25x4 PP indeed isn't fair, because the owner of the 60/40 needs to hold cash. How much isn't clear, but most would recommend a sizeable enough chunk that it's a significant fraction of the stock/bond portfolio. Similarly, the 60/40 owner has to decide when...
- Tue Jul 12, 2016 11:48 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Scott Burns' Co on the PP
- Replies: 56
- Views: 30710
Re: Scott Burns' Co on the PP
And/or 30ish using base 16....flyingpylon wrote:Gen X birth years start in the early to mid '1960s, so he might not be under 40.MG I also would never have guessed you were under 40.
(yes, Computer major, GenX)
- Sun Jul 10, 2016 3:07 pm
- Forum: Gold
- Topic: The GOLD scream room
- Replies: 3693
- Views: 1747633
Re: The GOLD scream room
Or to hopefully hit a rebalance band.buddtholomew wrote:Sweet. We have 6 months to party.MachineGhost wrote:Last time gold had such a big rally in the first half of the year was... wait for it... 1979, six months before the 18-year bear market top.
Call me the anti-gold bug doom porner.
- Sat Jul 09, 2016 1:29 am
- Forum: Gold
- Topic: The GOLD scream room
- Replies: 3693
- Views: 1747633
Re: The GOLD scream room
<snip> Almost 4 years since my first Gold (ETF) purchase. Today at a -0.2% return -- almost break even! (Didn't go all in and still not, but have increased Gold allocation over the years.) There's something about reaching breakeven with long-held losing investments that is even more satisfying than...
- Sat Jul 09, 2016 1:16 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Funds
- Topic: 07-08-2016 YTD +14%
- Replies: 5
- Views: 21361
Re: 07-08-2016 YTD +14%
PERM is having a good year as wellAd Orientem wrote:Been a while since I've looked at PRPFX. I think interest in this fund has waned quite a bit around here. Anyways the fund is doing relatively well. I took a look today after checking my own PP (up around 10% ytd).
- Sat Jul 09, 2016 12:54 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Vanguard Sucks
- Replies: 19
- Views: 9449
Re: Vanguard Sucks
What's the advantage of a mutual fund over an ETF again? Price is less volatile - don't have to pay extra to ensure 'market' price is really 'market' price. Personally don't like ETFs -- Gold is my only ETF. And yeah, VG only has a few funds sub-3k (Star - active funds....), although don't they hav...
- Thu Jul 07, 2016 12:43 am
- Forum: Gold
- Topic: The GOLD scream room
- Replies: 3693
- Views: 1747633
Re: The GOLD scream room
Not to dampen the enthusiasm, but since I went all in with the PP about 7 years ago, the only sector that's still in the red is gold. I'm very happy that it's rising, of course, but it's still 2% below the break even point. Almost 4 years since my first Gold (ETF) purchase. Today at a -0.2% return ...
- Sun Jul 03, 2016 2:38 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Why should PP continue going up?
- Replies: 89
- Views: 38863
Re: Why should PP continue going up?
We're in uncharted territory here. The pp could turn out to be a miserable performer. I just can't think of a better way to invest, and long bonds appear to be a crucial part of the plan. I get the "I can't think of a better way to invest sentiment." I wouldn't be here or waste my time th...