Search found 3353 matches

by ochotona
Wed Mar 30, 2016 8:10 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Stock scream room
Replies: 1438
Views: 646116

Re: Stock scream room

You're not gonna get more prosperity by data mining to the past.  Sweeping statements like that are half wise, and half Scheiße. Of course if we data mined 1901-1950 we could not predict 1951-2000. But for better or worse, the DJIA has done "OK", even though the component companies of the index hav...
by ochotona
Tue Mar 29, 2016 8:14 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Return Chasing and Trend Following
Replies: 5
Views: 3494

Re: Return Chasing and Trend Following

I am going to absolutely hate it  >:(  if I get a buy signal* for the SP500 on 3/31/16, what with it being highly overbought. That's just asking for another whipsaw in the next few months. If you buy when overbought, it kind of pointless if the asset quickly takes a dive below the buy price. I can h...
by ochotona
Sun Mar 27, 2016 8:45 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: study of 90-10 portfolios
Replies: 13
Views: 8877

Re: study of 90-10 portfolios

dualstow wrote: I don't short, ever.
One would have to hold onto these tech stocks even when they lose most of their value, in order to not miss out on the sudden increases.
Not easy.
The thing about the largest % increases, they live next door to the largest % declines. Best to avoid those neighborhoods.
by ochotona
Sun Mar 27, 2016 1:53 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: study of 90-10 portfolios
Replies: 13
Views: 8877

Re: study of 90-10 portfolios

dualstow wrote: I agree with Ad O. I can see myself running a Swedroe Min Fat Tails, but gun to my head, if I could only have 10% in stocks, I'd probably pick 1/2 google and 1/2 some other individual stock and try to 'shoot the moon'.
Then, during bear markets you'd want to be 10% short
by ochotona
Sun Mar 27, 2016 1:41 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Shorting the market... my mind has been blown
Replies: 9
Views: 5149

Re: Shorting the market... my mind has been blown

Funny thing... 40% GRZZX short mutual fund and 60% Total Bond ETF BND is only -5.4% CAGR if you hold this weird portfolio during 2009-2015... which is the worst possible period to have been short the stock market.
by ochotona
Sat Mar 26, 2016 10:24 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Krugers, Maples, Eagles, or 'Roos?
Replies: 17
Views: 10841

Re: Krugers, Maples, Eagles, or 'Roos?

Let's think outside a bigger box. Someday, one of my descendants will be able to sell their gold legally again. It doesn't have to be me.

When does your next vacation begin?
by ochotona
Sat Mar 26, 2016 2:11 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Demographics and the Stock Market
Replies: 16
Views: 12234

Re: Demographics and the Stock Market

Am biding my time. I found a better short fund than SH, it's GRZZX. Just waiting, waiting, waiting...
by ochotona
Sat Mar 26, 2016 2:08 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Beware of bad data sources
Replies: 2
Views: 1922

Re: Beware of bad data sources

The stockcharts numbers don't match either the raw or adjusted SCHX ETF prices on Yahoo! finance. Nothing matches. I was looking at 3/31/15. It's a cluster.
by ochotona
Sat Mar 26, 2016 9:12 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Beware of bad data sources
Replies: 2
Views: 1922

Beware of bad data sources

I just found out that the prices for ETF SCHX seen on Stockcharts.com and Yahoo! Finance do not match! And they don't match by large amount. Beware! I have given up on both, and have gone back to Schwab.com for data and charting, because SCHX is a Schwab ETF. It's a pain to log in, but damage from a...
by ochotona
Sat Mar 26, 2016 8:09 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Momentum Butterfly portfolio
Replies: 23
Views: 11997

Re: Momentum Butterfly portfolio

If you don't do a smoothing operation on the time period prior reference date, you're going to get the crap beat out of you when we start doing year-ago compares between late August 2015 and 2016 ! Your buy-sell signals will go NUTS. If I do a linear fit on +/- two months from the reference date, I ...
by ochotona
Sat Mar 26, 2016 8:02 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Momentum Butterfly portfolio
Replies: 23
Views: 11997

Re: Momentum Butterfly portfolio

I think I have found a way to get rid of some whipsaws. Often the buy/sell emerges due to an anomaly at the beginning of the look-back period... maybe the security hit an air pocket a year ago, 6 months ago, whatever. I am going to smooth through the time series. But my smoother will be double-sided...
by ochotona
Fri Mar 25, 2016 9:35 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Krugers, Maples, Eagles, or 'Roos?
Replies: 17
Views: 10841

Re: Krugers, Maples, Eagles, or 'Roos?

For my part, I envision selling my coins back to the small group of PM dealers with whom I've done business, so I don't think there should be trust issues.
by ochotona
Fri Mar 25, 2016 1:53 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Krugers, Maples, Eagles, or 'Roos?
Replies: 17
Views: 10841

Re: Krugers, Maples, Eagles, or 'Roos?

MachineGhost wrote: In that list, Leaves and Kruggerunds are 1099-B reportable, so that would favor Eagles and Kangaroos which are exempt.
I love the randomness of the government.  :-\
by ochotona
Fri Mar 25, 2016 12:49 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Krugers, Maples, Eagles, or 'Roos?
Replies: 17
Views: 10841

Re: Krugers, Maples, Eagles, or 'Roos?

I have heard that maple leaf coins are more likely to get devalued if they're not cared for, because they're more easily scratched. These coins are really soft. I got a dinged one, but the dealer replaced it. Maples and 'Roos are 24 karat, 99.99% gold Eagles and Krugers are 22 karat, 91.67% gold
by ochotona
Fri Mar 25, 2016 11:57 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Krugers, Maples, Eagles, or 'Roos?
Replies: 17
Views: 10841

Krugers, Maples, Eagles, or 'Roos?

Which of these kinds of gold bullion coins can be sold resulting in the greatest recapture of the original investment? Looking at texmetals.com, Perth Kangaroos  $26 round-trip penalty Canadian Maple Leaves  $35 round-trip penalty US Gold Eagles  $39 round-trip penalty Krugerrands  $44 round-trip pe...
by ochotona
Fri Mar 25, 2016 11:45 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3689
Views: 1659158

Re: The GOLD scream room

I'm not trying to trade. I'm just trying to buy on dips. The technical indicators like the MACD on the weekly chart have a ridiculously sinusoidal periodicity, that's why I think 2-3 months more for a local dip. I won't predict price. After the latest $IAU running out of issuable shares fiasco, I so...
by ochotona
Fri Mar 25, 2016 9:22 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3689
Views: 1659158

Re: The GOLD scream room

I'm going to make a run at some more bullion coins in 2-3 more months, approximately. That's when we might be in a price dip again.
by ochotona
Wed Mar 23, 2016 11:43 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Shorting the market... my mind has been blown
Replies: 9
Views: 5149

Re: Shorting the market... my mind has been blown

Safely surely loses money?
by ochotona
Wed Mar 23, 2016 5:12 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: New all-time high
Replies: 30
Views: 17938

Re: New all-time high

I am going to study whether the "go to cash" down market phase for momentum portfolios should be replaced with "go to PP". Watch the VP area of the forum.
by ochotona
Mon Mar 21, 2016 7:42 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Turbo Tax is a mixed blessing
Replies: 8
Views: 2493

Re: Turbo Tax is a mixed blessing

I unfortunately had a similar confusion with HSAs in TurboTax online a few years ago... the HSA distribution got counted as taxable income somehow, and the IRS questioned me about it, but they were satisfied  when I sent HSA documentation. It was not a happy time. I hear good things about TaxAct Onl...
by ochotona
Sat Mar 19, 2016 5:15 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: I bought some Smith & Wesson today.
Replies: 19
Views: 10419

Re: I bought some Smith & Wesson today.

I'd rather buy the products, not the stock! The hardware probably gives you more lasting value.
by ochotona
Sat Mar 19, 2016 12:18 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Stock scream room
Replies: 1438
Views: 646116

Re: Stock scream room

The blackout period for stock buybacks is beginning next week. Companies buying back shares of their own stock (to increase earnings per share) have been a major prop keeping the market up. What will happen over the next six weeks as this prop comes off? http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-...
by ochotona
Sat Mar 19, 2016 7:53 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Where did you go to School?
Replies: 70
Views: 35568

Re: Where did you go to School?

I went to school with actresses Jennifer Beals and Daryl Hannah. I remember Beals being a middle schooler with braces, she was a cute kid!
by ochotona
Sat Mar 19, 2016 7:48 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: How do you determine after-tax budget with 4% SWR?
Replies: 16
Views: 7364

Re: How do you determine after-tax budget with 4% SWR?

A conservative, safe withdrawal rate for the PP appears to be 4%.  In a taxable account, some taxes may be incurred on the 4% withdrawal.  But it seems very complicated to estimate those taxes.  For example, when cashing out of assets early on, taxes will be minimal because gains have been minimal....