Search found 3535 matches

by Smith1776
Sun Jun 03, 2018 2:41 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Risk Parity and the Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 20
Views: 14709

Re: Risk Parity and the Permanent Portfolio

Another great Ray Dalio series of videos. This pretty much reiterates much of what has been discussed, but it is nonetheless a very interesting and entertaining series of shorts.

https://www.investopedia.com/video/play ... portfolio/
by Smith1776
Sat Jun 02, 2018 11:16 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 600 Members Coming Up
Replies: 63
Views: 35812

Re: 600 Members Coming Up

Chain of events: 1) Found out about Ron Paul's portfolio via public filings a couple years ago - mostly gold, silver, and mining stocks. 2) Scoffed. 3) Somehow there was a link to related portfolios that also held a lot of gold. 4) Got linked to the Permanent Portfolio Family of Funds (PRPFX) 5) Sco...
by Smith1776
Wed May 30, 2018 5:48 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: My Permanent Portfolio Variant
Replies: 25
Views: 18553

Re: My Permanent Portfolio Variant

As a follow up to some of our previous discussion on international diversification, a memory of Long-Term Capital Management and the Russian debt crisis of 1998 popped into my mind. Is it possible that our faith in the notion that treasury securities are free of default risk is misplaced? I think it...
by Smith1776
Wed May 30, 2018 4:15 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: My Permanent Portfolio Variant
Replies: 25
Views: 18553

Re: My Permanent Portfolio Variant

WhiteElephant, Your post about cash reminded me of this Warren Buffett quote that I love: "When bills come due, only cash is legal tender. Don’t leave home without it.” What a cheeky guy. Anywho, yes I've got "shallow" cash outside of the Permanent Portfolio in my bank savings account...
by Smith1776
Tue May 29, 2018 3:27 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: My Permanent Portfolio Variant
Replies: 25
Views: 18553

Re: My Permanent Portfolio Variant

I could put all my money into the Horizons Risk Parity ETF (HRA) found here: https://www.horizonsetfs.com/etf/hra This ETF is an All Seasons/Permanent Portfolio/Risk Parity type allocation all in one fund. It would certainly keep things simple, but the total expense ratio is way too high at about 1...
by Smith1776
Tue May 29, 2018 2:24 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: My Permanent Portfolio Variant
Replies: 25
Views: 18553

Re: My Permanent Portfolio Variant

Alexy, absolutely -- I really enjoy discussing the Permanent Portfolio. The only thing that disappoints me is that I discovered the Permanent Portfolio only after Medium Tex and Craigr left and so I never got a chance to chat with either of them. Regarding the creation of additional VCNS units -- ma...
by Smith1776
Tue May 29, 2018 2:10 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: My Permanent Portfolio Variant
Replies: 25
Views: 18553

Re: My Permanent Portfolio Variant

@Smith1776 I've got another question for you on the subject of the ETF you've picked (VCNS). I've checked it out and it's a pretty small ETF with only CAD36.8M. I've started reading more on ETFs and their advantages and disadvantages (including this forum, where people talk about safety of an ETF v...
by Smith1776
Mon May 28, 2018 3:49 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: My Permanent Portfolio Variant
Replies: 25
Views: 18553

Re: My Permanent Portfolio Variant

blue_ruin, I couldn't agree more. I look at some of the conversations on the Bogleheads forums extolling the virtues of the traditional 60/40 balanced portfolio and kind of cringe. I look at the drawdown data for that allocation on Tyler's site, and I don't see anything truly balanced about that por...
by Smith1776
Sat May 26, 2018 4:31 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: My Permanent Portfolio Variant
Replies: 25
Views: 18553

Re: My Permanent Portfolio Variant

The classic PP works in Canada exactly as it was designed to, and has so for almost 50 years now, despite Canada always being tilted towards natural resources and commodities. If anything, the volatile boom/bust nature of commodities works in favour of the PP: it increases the volatility of your st...
by Smith1776
Sat May 26, 2018 4:29 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: My Permanent Portfolio Variant
Replies: 25
Views: 18553

Re: My Permanent Portfolio Variant

Thanks everyone for your comments and feedback. @Smith1776 May I ask you how you got to the point of picking these particular securities? Since you've done a lot of investigation, what were other front runners for you that you've considered? I've seen your other, older, post with different ETFs - yo...
by Smith1776
Fri May 25, 2018 1:03 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: My Permanent Portfolio Variant
Replies: 25
Views: 18553

My Permanent Portfolio Variant

Hello everyone. I've been working on and finally implemented an international Permanent Portfolio. I'm a Canadian investor, and one of the biggest issues I've had intellectually is investing my money in a classic PP -- in other words, all my money domestically. Canada represents something like 3% of...
by Smith1776
Wed May 23, 2018 3:08 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Risk Parity and the Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 20
Views: 14709

Re: Risk Parity and the Permanent Portfolio

I personally think the portfolio is way too conservative for a younger investor, but HB was dead right in that no one can predict the future and that most backtests fail out of sample. I'd agree in general as well. However, in my case, even though i'm in my 20's, the Permanent Portfolio is perfect ...
by Smith1776
Tue May 22, 2018 11:10 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Risk Parity and the Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 20
Views: 14709

Re: Risk Parity and the Permanent Portfolio

Thanks for the insightful discussion, guys. I think you make really good points. The Permanent Portfolio may not be mathematically "correct" or optimized -- the fact that it has a simple 1 / n allocation to the asset classes kind of testifies to that. However, I think part of the reasoning...
by Smith1776
Sun May 20, 2018 5:08 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Risk Parity and the Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 20
Views: 14709

Re: Risk Parity and the Permanent Portfolio

An absolutely great interview. The Permanent Portfolio... the original in risk parity. O0
by Smith1776
Sun May 20, 2018 3:38 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Risk Parity and the Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 20
Views: 14709

Re: Risk Parity and the Permanent Portfolio

There is quite wide recognition of the similar intellectual heritage between the Permanent Portfolio and risk parity strategies such as All Weather and the All Seasons portfolios. A query for you all: do you consider the Permanent Portfolio to be a risk parity strategy? Does it firmly fit under tha...
by Smith1776
Sun May 20, 2018 2:18 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Risk Parity and the Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 20
Views: 14709

Risk Parity and the Permanent Portfolio

There is quite wide recognition of the similar intellectual heritage between the Permanent Portfolio and risk parity strategies such as All Weather and the All Seasons portfolios. A query for you all: do you consider the Permanent Portfolio to be a risk parity strategy? Does it firmly fit under that...
by Smith1776
Fri Jun 02, 2017 12:26 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP exit strategy
Replies: 24
Views: 17741

Re: PP exit strategy

"Hacked wealth" gets worse when you realize that most people don't download monthly brokerage and bank statements. They accept electronic delivery, but then don't get them. I have been guilty of this, too. At least if you have the latest monthly statement in a secure location you can help...
by Smith1776
Fri Jun 02, 2017 11:14 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP exit strategy
Replies: 24
Views: 17741

Re: PP exit strategy

If I have to abandon the PP, it is probably only because the financial system has seized, or collapsed altogether. In that case, my "exit strategy" is to simply write-off my 100% paper losses and sit on my physical gold holdings until the dust settles. In other words, the PP already comes...
by Smith1776
Fri May 26, 2017 4:43 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP exit strategy
Replies: 24
Views: 17741

Re: PP exit strategy

Don't you have to switch to bank notes and bullion before the Carrington Event happens? Definitely! I'm not an astrophysicist, but from what I understand the sun usually gives off warnings beforehand in the form of solar flares and such. Either way, I've elected to hold some physical cash and bulli...
by Smith1776
Fri May 26, 2017 1:31 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP exit strategy
Replies: 24
Views: 17741

Re: PP exit strategy

Don't you have to switch to bank notes and bullion before the Carrington Event happens? Definitely! I'm not an astrophysicist, but from what I understand the sun usually gives off warnings beforehand in the form of solar flares and such. Either way, I've elected to hold some physical cash and bulli...
by Smith1776
Fri May 26, 2017 10:20 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP exit strategy
Replies: 24
Views: 17741

Re: PP exit strategy

Hmmmm, I suppose if there is any exit strategy, it would be, say, switching entirely to bank notes and gold & silver bullion in the event of an absolute calamity. Say, a Carrington Event disrupts power transmission and telecommunications around the world. (Interestingly, we are due for another s...
by Smith1776
Tue May 23, 2017 1:58 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Passive vs Active Investing, and role of the PP
Replies: 44
Views: 26610

Re: Passive vs Active Investing, and role of the PP

sophie wrote:Barrett, you just HAD to use the word "fondle" didn't you??
I happen to keep a silver ounce in my wallet purely for day-to-day fondling purposes. :D
by Smith1776
Thu May 18, 2017 2:37 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The Canadian Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 9
Views: 10416

Re: The Canadian Permanent Portfolio

You don't need a large portfolio to justify using international gold storage. It is the point of the gold after all. Harry Browne once said all you need is $4,000 dollars to get started with the PP and keep $1,000 of physical gold in a Swiss bank. You need the geographical diversification, the 'har...
by Smith1776
Thu May 18, 2017 12:22 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The Canadian Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 9
Views: 10416

Re: The Canadian Permanent Portfolio

My gold is still in a state of flux. I was holding MNT but recently switched to CGL.C for the free trades. I'm starting to think it's not worth it though. The trust structure is just too deep and opaque. I don't have any physical right now but will be keeping 15% (of portfolio value) with the Perth...
by Smith1776
Wed May 17, 2017 11:32 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The Canadian Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 9
Views: 10416

Re: The Canadian Permanent Portfolio

The long-ish duration of ZFS is not bad because ZFL is a bit too short. Together, they balance out and come close to an intermediate duration fund. Not ideal, but at least it's not lop-sided. I've been back and forth on the US and international funds. Harry Browne has pointed out numerous times tha...