Search found 3354 matches

by ochotona
Sun Mar 15, 2015 5:32 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Never have long positions in UGLD or DGLD
Replies: 5
Views: 4169

Never have long positions in UGLD or DGLD

You absolutely have to avoid long positions in 2X and 3X leveraged and inverse ETFs or ETNs... due to the DECAY phenomenon. Intraday is OK, going long is not.

Look at the first chart shown, it will frighten you to DEATH.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/104703- ... raged-etfs
by ochotona
Sun Mar 15, 2015 5:31 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: How Are You Doing In PP?
Replies: 97
Views: 39491

Re: How Are You Doing In PP?

Cully, you absolutely have to avoid long positions in 2X and 3X leveraged and inverse ETFs or ETNs... due to the DECAY phenomenon. Intraday is OK, going long is not. Look at the first chart shown, it will frighten you to DEATH. http://seekingalpha.com/article/104703-explaining-inverse-and-leveraged-...
by ochotona
Thu Mar 12, 2015 7:31 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Shorter Term Instead of LT Bonds?
Replies: 21
Views: 12855

Re: Shorter Term Instead of LT Bonds?

If you are overly concerned about one component of the PP, just reduce the size of that component as well as all the other components. That way you retain the integrity of the PP for rebalancing and the remainder can be used to establish a VP to tilt your total portfolio in whichever direction you ...
by ochotona
Wed Mar 11, 2015 12:00 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: How Are You Doing In PP?
Replies: 97
Views: 39491

Re: How Are You Doing In PP?

push3r wrote: Don't do this as it's against the law of the HBPP authorities. :)
My brother in law resigned from the local bromiliad (a type of flower) society because it was too "cut throat". Same dynamic here.

As in academia, "The conflict is high, because the stakes are so low."
by ochotona
Wed Mar 11, 2015 11:01 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: How Are You Doing In PP?
Replies: 97
Views: 39491

Re: How Are You Doing In PP?

Gold may be overpriced... but maybe not. I think there is more downside risk than upside, so I trim my sails.

I don't speculate. I invest. I don't hop in and out. Don't describe my intentions falsely. I am happy to dollar cost average into a declining asset over a period of years
by ochotona
Wed Mar 11, 2015 10:55 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Where Are Permanent Portfolios Going?
Replies: 14
Views: 7388

Re: Where Are Permanent Portfolios Going?

Would PP perform "less badly" than a Boglehead 50% stock 50% bond portfolio in an extended deflation? That would be good enough, that and physical gold.
by ochotona
Wed Mar 11, 2015 10:42 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: How Are You Doing In PP?
Replies: 97
Views: 39491

Re: How Are You Doing In PP?

If my gold allocation target is temporarily 15% while gold is overpriced, then if it falls to 14%, then I will push it back up to 15%, not 25%. So no, I don't just snap into the orthodox PP at first gold decline.

Should gold get to $850 then 25% gold.
by ochotona
Wed Mar 11, 2015 8:49 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: How Are You Doing In PP?
Replies: 97
Views: 39491

Re: How Are You Doing In PP?

Just to be clear:  if you're buying and selling assets in accordance with your predictions, that isn't a PP.  It's speculation with the PP assets, which is something different.  It would help newcomers who might otherwise get confused. Of course you can do whatever you please with your money, and y...
by ochotona
Wed Mar 11, 2015 5:56 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: How Are You Doing In PP?
Replies: 97
Views: 39491

Re: How Are You Doing In PP?

The problem is that if gold goes down (as you expect) even the slightest bit, you're instantly having to rebalance. What do you "instantly"? Within a nano second? A day? A week? Because why? The sky will fall if you're at 14.8% gold? O the humanity. You put a mirror of your portfolio on Google Fina...
by ochotona
Tue Mar 10, 2015 10:36 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Where Are Permanent Portfolios Going?
Replies: 14
Views: 7388

Re: Where Are Permanent Portfolios Going?

2% over inflation. Since you asked for a number. Lever it slightly by decreasing cash, squeeze out 2.5% with more risk
by ochotona
Tue Mar 10, 2015 10:27 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: How Are You Doing In PP?
Replies: 97
Views: 39491

Re: How Are You Doing In PP?

So are you saying that when one starts the HBPP, it's better to jump all in with a lump sum no matter if you have some clues that the world might blow up in the near future?  What's the best approach when one starts the HBPP from scratch?  To me, it's kind of strange to buy stock now even though th...
by ochotona
Tue Mar 10, 2015 9:02 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Stock scream room
Replies: 1438
Views: 646397

Re: Stock scream room

I mentally frame the PP as a portfolio to withstand equity declines and not as an investment that counter-balances gold declines. The problem with gold is that is can get unreasonably expensive at times, and the overpricedness lasts for years at a time. If you buy high and sell it low, you're not h...
by ochotona
Tue Mar 10, 2015 8:57 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Stock scream room
Replies: 1438
Views: 646397

Re: Stock scream room

Have you looked at returns for stocks and gold from 1/1/2000 to 12/31/2010?  That's a fairly recent 10-year period. Looking at one 10-year period is almost getting to be cherry-picking. Did you look at gold and stocks from an even longer period, 1980-2001? Pretty much the reverse case from 2000-201...
by ochotona
Tue Mar 10, 2015 4:22 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Stock scream room
Replies: 1438
Views: 646397

Re: Stock scream room

Cortopassi wrote: Very strange, I should be just as upset that stocks are down this much as when gold goes down this much.  But I am not.
Because you know there is a strong long-term up-trend to stocks, whereas the real price of gold simply oscillates around between extremes. That's why.
by ochotona
Mon Mar 09, 2015 11:21 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Glad the forum is back up!
Replies: 5
Views: 2408

Re: Glad the forum is back up!

ochotona wrote: You could've joined the GooglePlus PP Community!
I will make any of the serious participants from over here a moderator on the PP Google+ group, if they desire it.

Image
by ochotona
Mon Mar 09, 2015 7:49 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: How much to gamble in a VP and how frequent are your trades?
Replies: 13
Views: 8062

Re: How much to gamble in a VP and how frequent are your trades?

I think this whole VP idea is just trash talking everything else but PP. It's juvenile. I get it that PP is very safe and dependable... But that does not mean my 60/40 balanced portfolio is a trip to Vegas. I wonder if the VP concept "only invest what you can afford to lose" encourages people to tak...
by ochotona
Mon Mar 09, 2015 7:45 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Glad the forum is back up!
Replies: 5
Views: 2408

Re: Glad the forum is back up!

You could've joined the GooglePlus PP Community!
by ochotona
Fri Mar 06, 2015 9:55 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: How Are You Doing In PP?
Replies: 97
Views: 39491

Re: How Are You Doing In PP?

Euro at parity? Today? I thought it was $1.10 this morning
by ochotona
Fri Mar 06, 2015 9:50 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3689
Views: 1659678

Re: The GOLD scream room

Same story since 2011. The "inevitable decline" may not happen in our investment timeframe. The portfolio is actually more risky now than ever before. Rising interest rates with no inflation. It's bad. Falling long Treasuries. Stocks at all-time highs, old bull market. Gold still a sick man. What's...
by ochotona
Fri Mar 06, 2015 9:47 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3689
Views: 1659678

Re: The GOLD scream room

Cortopassi wrote: Seriously though, I just wish it would be over.  There are so many theoretically gold positive things going on in the world, that gold can't find any support, hell, just drive it below $1000 and be done with it.
Agreed, then rebalance!
by ochotona
Fri Mar 06, 2015 9:14 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: How Are You Doing In PP?
Replies: 97
Views: 39491

Re: How Are You Doing In PP?

buddtholomew wrote: I suppose the portfolio is doing wonderfully today?

Seriously, what a piece of crap.
If you were 100% stock, VTI or SCHB, your portfolio would be up year-to-date, that is true... but that would be suicide.
by ochotona
Thu Mar 05, 2015 1:12 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: New Business Oportunities
Replies: 8
Views: 3566

Re: New Business Oportunities

Angolan Portuguese is lovely. Way more pretty than what they speak in Portugal.
by ochotona
Thu Mar 05, 2015 5:51 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: New Business Oportunities
Replies: 8
Views: 3566

Re: New Business Oportunities

Arms dealer? Currency trader... converting Marks, Francs, Lira, Pesetas, Drachmas... again?  ;)