Search found 3354 matches
- Fri Sep 22, 2023 4:12 pm
- Forum: Gold
- Topic: I Thought Gold Would Fare Better in 2022-23
- Replies: 63
- Views: 115948
Re: I Thought Gold Would Fare Better in 2022-23
Can you imagine how well you would have done if you'd bought real estate in Spain in the 1970s, right after Franco's death? Or in Croatia or Slovenia after Tito's death? WOW. In those cases, who needs gold? I was wondering if a similar situation exists in Ukraine. But that trade is for Ukrainian-Ame...
- Fri Sep 22, 2023 4:09 pm
- Forum: Bonds
- Topic: Tax loss harvesting bonds with Fidelity
- Replies: 1
- Views: 5159
Re: Tax loss harvesting bonds with Fidelity
Look at the difference in the "bid" and the "ask". There's your answer. So if I'm selling a T-Bill on the secondary market for example, maybe the "bid" (price I'm offered for a Bill I'm selling) is 97.503, which is 97.503 cents on the Dollar. Maybe the "ask" (...
- Sat Sep 02, 2023 11:15 am
- Forum: Stocks
- Topic: When will indexing blow up?
- Replies: 30
- Views: 48347
Re: When will indexing blow up?
I treat it as I would a weather forecast... large error bars, but you probably shouldn't ignore it. It is probabilistic. There is another page I see there (I have to login) which shows a number of forecasts, which make up the single composite predictor, which range from pretty good to lousy. The agg...
- Fri Sep 01, 2023 10:18 pm
- Forum: Stocks
- Topic: When will indexing blow up?
- Replies: 30
- Views: 48347
- Fri Sep 01, 2023 11:32 am
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: WSB-style YOLO
- Replies: 7
- Views: 2336
Re: WSB-style YOLO
Oh, quick anti-climactic update: because I was laid off I can’t afford to throw anything into a VP right now so I have literally done nothing lol. That's terrible, may the time to your next job be short! Thanks! Silver lining is that I got laid off just BEFORE I was about to do the YOLO-ing rather ...
- Thu Aug 31, 2023 11:38 am
- Forum: Bonds
- Topic: What kind of "bond" am I?
- Replies: 4
- Views: 1064
Re: What kind of "bond" am I?
So I was updating my investments spreadsheet... and I had to subtract $200k from my IRA, because it went to the QLAC. But then I started a new row in the spreadsheet... "Present Value of QLAC using 13-week T-Bill as risk-free rate". I found that the PV was $250,000. So in a sense I have ad...
- Thu Aug 31, 2023 11:32 am
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: WSB-style YOLO
- Replies: 7
- Views: 2336
- Thu Aug 31, 2023 11:30 am
- Forum: Gold
- Topic: The GOLD scream room
- Replies: 3693
- Views: 1787916
Re: The GOLD scream room
If you're near retirement/drawdown, a reasonable gold exit strategy IMO is to spend gold first. Agree, I could sell some of the gold to fund a Social Security substitute from retirement to age 70. I retire in 32 months, will take Social Security at 70. Let's hope it's broken out to the upside in 32...
- Wed Aug 09, 2023 12:31 pm
- Forum: Bonds
- Topic: What kind of "bond" am I?
- Replies: 4
- Views: 1064
Re: What kind of "bond" am I?
I have almost as low a default risk as US Treasuries. I am not exposed to interest rate risk. When my owner turns 82, I will pay him a monthly coupon of $6135 per month until he passes, which is taxable, and the Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of all of my cash flows before taxes is 6.5% nominal . Wh...
- Wed Aug 09, 2023 11:40 am
- Forum: Bonds
- Topic: What kind of "bond" am I?
- Replies: 4
- Views: 1064
What kind of "bond" am I?
I have almost as low a default risk as US Treasuries. I am not exposed to interest rate risk. When my owner turns 82, I will pay him a monthly coupon of $6135 per month until he passes, which is taxable, and the Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of all of my cash flows before taxes is 6.5% nominal . Wha...
- Wed Aug 09, 2023 11:33 am
- Forum: Bonds
- Topic: What happens to I-bonds if rates plummet again
- Replies: 46
- Views: 50781
Re: What happens to I-bonds if rates plummet again
I have some spending needs coming in 2026-2027, so I have been selling the I-Bonds with interest rates less than 4% and buying Treasuries maturing in 2026-2027 and locking in a bit more than 4%. Are those Treasuries tax-sheltered or not? No, they are exposed to taxes. It's a bit complicated. My per...
- Tue Aug 08, 2023 7:19 pm
- Forum: Gold
- Topic: The GOLD scream room
- Replies: 3693
- Views: 1787916
Re: The GOLD scream room
Long term... I bought gold 2015-2018 at a good price, but I'm giving it until 2030, if no serious step above the past ATHs by then I'm out. Fifteen years is long enough. It will be time for digitization, simplification and streamlining for my heirs and future caregivers to take precedence. It doesn'...
- Tue Aug 08, 2023 5:01 pm
- Forum: Bonds
- Topic: What happens to I-bonds if rates plummet again
- Replies: 46
- Views: 50781
Re: What happens to I-bonds if rates plummet again
I have some spending needs coming in 2026-2027, so I have been selling the I-Bonds with interest rates less than 4% and buying Treasuries maturing in 2026-2027 and locking in a bit more than 4%.
- Tue Aug 08, 2023 2:12 pm
- Forum: Gold
- Topic: The GOLD scream room
- Replies: 3693
- Views: 1787916
Re: The GOLD scream room
In nominal dollar terms the price of gold stepped up during the 1970's, 1980/1990 were a plateau, 2000's were a step (dot com bubble, financial crisis), 2010's were a plateau, excepting a relatively small 2020 step (Covid) as part of that. A nice feature with that is if you blend stocks with gold t...
- Tue Aug 08, 2023 11:26 am
- Forum: Gold
- Topic: The GOLD scream room
- Replies: 3693
- Views: 1787916
Re: The GOLD scream room
So when does gold catch a bid? Dow is down -321 right now, 10 year interest rates are down, US Dollar is down, why is gold also down?
- Tue Aug 08, 2023 11:23 am
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: WSB-style YOLO
- Replies: 7
- Views: 2336
Re: WSB-style YOLO
On the chance Jeremy Grantham will be right sometime, maybe Emerging Markets Value? Like ETF AVES? Or just EM... VWO. That's mainstream risky, or old person risky, or something.
- Sun Jul 16, 2023 6:56 am
- Forum: Cash
- Topic: New I-Bond Rate for 5/1/23 to 10/31/23
- Replies: 33
- Views: 19066
Re: New I-Bond Rate for 5/1/23 to 10/31/23
I hate to give up the tax deferred features, the no RMD, paying imputed income on TIPs. I guess it's really a bet on inflation and an individual's tax payment experience in the future... Well, not an urgent question. Maybe I just put an upper limit on what % of the portfolio to ibonds and maintain i...
- Sat Jul 15, 2023 9:25 pm
- Forum: Cash
- Topic: New I-Bond Rate for 5/1/23 to 10/31/23
- Replies: 33
- Views: 19066
Re: New I-Bond Rate for 5/1/23 to 10/31/23
What's the way to think about using I-Bonds if the yield dips significantly below T-Bills?
- Thu Jun 29, 2023 2:15 pm
- Forum: Politics
- Topic: Affirmative action ruling
- Replies: 11
- Views: 2277
Affirmative action ruling
Chinese-Americans have known for decades that our numbers were being suppressed at many universities because, "oops, too many Chinese". It's just exactly what happened to Jews in the early 20th century when the Ivies thought there were "too many Jews" and severly limited Jewish e...
- Mon Jun 12, 2023 12:23 pm
- Forum: Stocks
- Topic: When will indexing blow up?
- Replies: 30
- Views: 48347
Re: When will indexing blow up?
Just yesterday I was comparing iShares US Minimum Volatility Factor ETF to SPY, and they track well until all of the COVID money printing, at which point SPY stands on its tail. It just seems to me that S&P500 is just a stupid bet on something, and someday SPY is going to catch-down to USMV, and...
- Tue Jun 06, 2023 12:39 pm
- Forum: Bonds
- Topic: Is anyone else buying TIPS?
- Replies: 28
- Views: 11577
Re: Is anyone else buying TIPS?
I won't use TIPS because my tax-advantaged space is all used up by tactical asset allocation and the phantom income thing is nonsense. I might use them if losses weren't capped to $3000 in a tax year, but because they are gated, no.
- Wed May 03, 2023 12:54 pm
- Forum: Other Discussions
- Topic: Is Ruth's Chris Steak Houses really worth $715 million?
- Replies: 2
- Views: 904
Is Ruth's Chris Steak Houses really worth $715 million?
Darden just bought them for $715 million. I like Ruth's Chris, but I'm not understanding this one.
- Mon May 01, 2023 7:05 am
- Forum: Other Discussions
- Topic: What inflation rate do you use for retirement planning?
- Replies: 2
- Views: 803
What inflation rate do you use for retirement planning?
I use the Flexible Retirement Planner. It's great. The default inflation rate is 3%. The current 5, 10, 20, and 30 year TIPS breakeven inflation rates are all below 3%. However... I just have a feeling I might just get screwed in the end by inflation. I'm tempted to bump it up to 3.5% as a hedge. An...
- Fri Apr 28, 2023 7:48 pm
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Predicting US Treasury Returns - a tactical bond approach
- Replies: 3
- Views: 1771
Re: Predicting US Treasury Returns - a tactical bond approach
Yes, B&H you got right. IEF is the 7-10 year US Treasury ETF. Some HBPP users like to use IEF instead of Cash + TLT... the one ETF "bullet". The point I'm making in this post is this Predicting US Treasury Returns is a bullet that doesn't misbehave in a rising interest rate environment...
- Fri Apr 28, 2023 10:07 am
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Predicting US Treasury Returns - a tactical bond approach
- Replies: 3
- Views: 1771
Predicting US Treasury Returns - a tactical bond approach
https://allocatesmartly.com/predicting-us-treasury-returns/ This seems to solve the "what if long bond interest rates keep going up from here?" It trades once a month between IEF and T-Bills. Sometimes it's very cashy, sometimes it's very bondy. It's down like -2% from Aug 2020... B&H ...