Search found 689 matches

by BearBones
Mon Feb 15, 2016 5:51 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Question for Melveyr
Replies: 81
Views: 41565

Re: Question for Melveyr

Appreciate your quick response, Melveyr. And the comments of others. As you are aware, Tyler has created PortfolioCharts and suggested the Golden Butterfly. I am thinking about the derivation below. Regardless, I assume you would replace the treasuries with intermediate and ditch the gold? And you w...
by BearBones
Sun Feb 14, 2016 1:14 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Question for Melveyr
Replies: 81
Views: 41565

Question for Melveyr

I don't think the PP is a good strategy right now. The PP is only different from BH strategy because it advocates for a bond barbell and gold ownership; neither make sense to me now. Holding an intermediate term bond portfolio instead of the cash/ltt has a higher sharpe ratio and I am very confiden...
by BearBones
Sun Feb 14, 2016 8:21 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Inflation or deflation?
Replies: 1
Views: 1485

Inflation or deflation?

If its price has been severely inflated, then this must be one of the cases of hidden inflation that everyone is always whispering about, since given the enormous increase in central bank balance sheets in the last 10 years or so, gold doesn't look severely inflated to me. This is an argument for i...
by BearBones
Sat Feb 13, 2016 2:20 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: ultra low / negative interest rates in Germany
Replies: 101
Views: 47956

Re: ultra low / negative interest rates in Germany

If its price has been severely inflated, then this must be one of the cases of hidden inflation that everyone is always whispering about, since given the enormous increase in central bank balance sheets in the last 10 years or so, gold doesn't look severely inflated to me. Can you explain more? Sur...
by BearBones
Sat Feb 13, 2016 10:34 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Safe withdrawal rate when you have a mortgage?
Replies: 21
Views: 10092

Re: Safe withdrawal rate when you have a mortgage?

I do not think that a mortgage should be compared to the average back tested performance of your entire investment portfolio. Paying off a mortgage is equivalent to a guaranteed and safe investment return of that rate (post tax equivalent). As close as we can get to a guaranteed and safe return is f...
by BearBones
Sat Feb 13, 2016 10:04 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: ultra low / negative interest rates in Germany
Replies: 101
Views: 47956

Re: ultra low / negative interest rates in Germany

Whether or not gold will depreciate, it is these low-yield times that make it easy for me to buy it. After all, the argument often goes that gold "just sits there." If my savings were earning 5%, I'd have to think hard about it, but right now my cash is just sitting there. With savings "earning" ne...
by BearBones
Fri Feb 12, 2016 1:40 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: ultra low / negative interest rates in Germany
Replies: 101
Views: 47956

Re: ultra low / negative interest rates in Germany

As Ben Bernanke noted some time ago (http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/Speeches/2002/20021121/default.htm#fn18), central banks can prevent deflation in any country by printing money. Of course the eventual result of this policy will be the destruction of the currency, but they believe that th...
by BearBones
Thu Feb 11, 2016 7:16 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Maximum Bond Upside
Replies: 278
Views: 161468

Re: Maximum Bond Upside

You are right, cash at -1% is no good.  That is when I will be be turning to the Nickel Plan... Once your basement is full of nickels, you are set... Kyle Bass tried this a few years ago, but back then it made even more sense, since the nickel's melt value was higher than 5 cents; this is no longer...
by BearBones
Wed Feb 10, 2016 8:36 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Maximum Bond Upside
Replies: 278
Views: 161468

Re: Maximum Bond Upside

So pardon if this is totally ignorant. But where is my logic flawed below? So if treasuries are turning negative, doesn't this mean severe deflation? Where else to move the money? Stocks, real estate, gold are all losing value vs the currency. The value of virtually everything you own plummets so ev...
by BearBones
Wed Feb 03, 2016 3:40 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Maximum Bond Upside
Replies: 278
Views: 161468

Re: Maximum Bond Upside

Ah, so STT even worse, so institutions still buy longer term treasuries! Boy I feel stupid. Back when this forum was in its infancy there were such high level discussions of economics and such things. Now feel like many of the newer folks are asking the same questions all over again and things aren'...
by BearBones
Wed Feb 03, 2016 2:13 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Maximum Bond Upside
Replies: 278
Views: 161468

Re: Maximum Bond Upside

Haven't read this thread thoroughly, and may have asked this before. But why ever own a neg yielding bond when you can own cash?
by BearBones
Wed Feb 03, 2016 1:27 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Golden Butterfly Portfolio
Replies: 539
Views: 350763

Re: Golden Butterfly Portfolio

I came up with this variant of the GB, and I like it... Like it too! More of a bogleheads-tilted GB. I've been playing with the charts and am favoring this for an IRA. Not as SHTF/1970s-repeat protection, but seems pretty safe with higher CAGR.                   CAGR    Worst Yr      Longest DD PP ...
by BearBones
Tue Feb 02, 2016 9:18 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: Buying CDs
Replies: 11
Views: 10220

Re: Buying CDs

MediumTex wrote: Is this a better option than $5,000 in ibonds?
No. But maxed on iBonds with 10k via TD and 5k via refund on taxes.
Looking for another place for deep cash. Thanks for helping.
by BearBones
Mon Feb 01, 2016 6:15 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: Buying CDs
Replies: 11
Views: 10220

Re: Buying CDs

Had it not been for MachineGhost's post elsewhere, I'd actually have no idea that you can get out of these early and still do better than most other investments. Thanks!
by BearBones
Mon Feb 01, 2016 10:07 am
Forum: Cash
Topic: Buying CDs
Replies: 11
Views: 10220

Buying CDs

Related to my last post. Convince me to something other than put my money in 5 year CDs at Barclays, please. Currently cash earning .9% at American Express Savings. Have other cash elsewhere, so unlikely I will need this for a year or more. https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4388976/CD%20Rates%2060...
by BearBones
Mon Feb 01, 2016 9:26 am
Forum: Cash
Topic: Going to the dark side (Synchrony Bank)
Replies: 17
Views: 10571

Re: Going to the dark side (Synchrony Bank)

Great thread, so going to revive. Your link to the early withdrawal calculator was very helpful, MG! Looks like Synchrony still the best. Seems to beat the others, and is likely a better then even Ally's Raise-Your-Rate CD posted by Sophie. But looks like people's experience at Synchrony has been ho...
by BearBones
Mon Feb 01, 2016 7:02 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Are free trades for treasuries really free? Except for TD Ameritrade?
Replies: 9
Views: 7267

Re: Are free trades for treasuries really free? Except for TD Ameritrade?

So if I understand well what the person at Bogleheads forum did was move his account from Schwab to Vanguard and there he can sell their treasury bonds at no cost? Yes, seems that way (except for small bid/ask spread). The OP and one respondent affirmed that you have to call and pay fee to sell at ...
by BearBones
Sun Jan 31, 2016 1:19 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Vaccines
Replies: 69
Views: 29121

Re: Vaccines

I don't get this notion of vaccination being a "duty" for which people can be fined or even imprisoned (IIRC). It affects the refuser himself , not anyone who has been vaccinated. If there were ever a victimless crime, this is it. Agree with dualstow. But also some diseases such as pertussis can st...
by BearBones
Sun Jan 31, 2016 12:32 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Are free trades for treasuries really free? Except for TD Ameritrade?
Replies: 9
Views: 7267

Re: Are free trades for treasuries really free? Except for TD Ameritrade?

I skimmed thru the PP Book and didn't find anything about this. Conclusion:  Based on absence of evidence otherwise in this post and elsewhere, seems that Fidelity, Vanguard and, perhaps, ETrade are the major brokerages of choice for owning treasuries direct. I am going to switch brokerages so I can...
by BearBones
Sun Jan 31, 2016 12:00 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Vaccines
Replies: 69
Views: 29121

Re: Vaccines

Being vaccinated is a duty : you accept a small amount of personal risk in exchange for strengthening your whole society. While I agree, I can see the other side, since it is a restriction on personal liberty. Same sentiment as resenting taxation. Or restrictions on buying weapons of mass destructi...
by BearBones
Sun Jan 31, 2016 11:49 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Vaccines
Replies: 69
Views: 29121

Re: Vaccines

PS Not sure if your asking this as well but my two cents would be to not become involved seriously with those that don't share similar / fundamental view points in life. No I did not ask that! But actually I agree.  ;) Tricky when 75-90% beliefs shared, some uncommon, and 10-25% don't. Thank you al...
by BearBones
Sat Jan 30, 2016 2:40 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Are free trades for treasuries really free? Except for TD Ameritrade?
Replies: 9
Views: 7267

Re: Are free trades for treasuries really free? Except for TD Ameritrade?

Ok more to affirm the negative at Schwab from Boglehead forum. Sounding like it may be Vanguard, Fidelity, and ETrade for buying and selling treasuries.

https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=156154
by BearBones
Sat Jan 30, 2016 2:16 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Are free trades for treasuries really free? Except for TD Ameritrade?
Replies: 9
Views: 7267

Re: Are free trades for treasuries really free? Except for TD Ameritrade?

Thanks! Here is what I see at Schwab: 0 commission for online trades, BUT... "Schwab reserves the right to act as principal on any fixed income transaction, public offering, or securities transaction. When Schwab acts as agent, a commission is charged on the transaction. When Schwab acts as principa...
by BearBones
Sat Jan 30, 2016 2:06 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Vaccines
Replies: 69
Views: 29121

Re: Vaccines

Mainly the payouts of the National Vaccine Injury Compensation Program. I think I understand why this was set up, since all of the law suits generated in the 1980's by the purported DPT-autism link about eliminated all vaccine manufacturing in this country. But the fact that this still exists at thi...
by BearBones
Sat Jan 30, 2016 12:32 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Vaccines
Replies: 69
Views: 29121

Vaccines

Don't want this to detract from my other posts today, but...  ;) Yep, I am a physician who found myself dating an anti-vax woman. Vehement. Most of her arguments I find pretty lame. A few are of merit and need some research. Anyone looked into this a lot and have some opinions grounded in strong sci...