Search found 689 matches

by BearBones
Tue Jan 03, 2012 8:30 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Upside volatility and long term bonds
Replies: 59
Views: 22817

Re: Upside volatility and long term bonds

What purpose do LTT's serve in the PP? Thanks, Clive. I do undertand the basic purpose of LTTs in the PP. But I still wonder if 6 Iron, Moda, and Tortoise are on to something, namely that the benefit of holding LTTs in the PP declines exponentially as the yield approaches zero. And the risk increas...
by BearBones
Mon Jan 02, 2012 7:45 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Upside volatility and long term bonds
Replies: 59
Views: 22817

Re: Upside volatility and long term bonds

Part of my motivation for coming back to the issue of negative yields on 30-year bonds is that some participants of this forum seem to mistakenly believe that if yields remain positive but continue to decrease exponentially (e.g., continually halve), bond prices will continue to increase without bo...
by BearBones
Sun Jan 01, 2012 3:10 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: The Bakken Oil Rush
Replies: 15
Views: 4742

Re: The Bakken Oil Rush

Well stated, MT. I'm sure that you've posted on this elsewhere, but how do you see this playing out (of course, realizing that if any of us knew this with any degree of certainty, we would not be on this forum)?
by BearBones
Sun Jan 01, 2012 9:03 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: PP New Years Resolutions
Replies: 3
Views: 2037

Re: PP New Years Resolutions

Hmm, how about to practice thinking about investments less in general.  One of the things that investors hopefully realize at some point is that at any point in time there are countless market narratives floating around, and this was the case long before you ever became interested in investing, and...
by BearBones
Sun Jan 01, 2012 8:42 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: The Bakken Oil Rush
Replies: 15
Views: 4742

Re: The Bakken Oil Rush

I think, like every other fear-mongering "resource scarcity" issue in the past, "Peak Oil" will turn out to be ballyhoo.  Every finite resource consumed will inevitably reach a peak of production, then decline. The question is only of timing. And peak oil is not an issue of &quo...
by BearBones
Sun Dec 25, 2011 8:55 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Harry Browne's REAL Message to Humanity
Replies: 19
Views: 8476

Re: Harry Browne's REAL Message to Humanity

Great post, MT.
If possible, can someone give a few sentence synopsis of the "Freedom in an Unfree World" book and/or the "Rule Your World" audio for those of us less erudite. I'm interested.
by BearBones
Fri Dec 23, 2011 9:08 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Anyone Notice: High Tax States = Reduced Value For Residents?
Replies: 218
Views: 62850

Re: Anyone Notice: High Tax States = Reduced Value For Residents?

That's interesting because those 2 issues are my primary drivers for where I will live because they directly impact me on a daily basis: 1) How much money I have in my pocket to spend 2) Whether I'm able to defend myself and my loved ones from a violent criminal Weather and everything else is nice ...
by BearBones
Sat Dec 17, 2011 9:40 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Emergency Fund and PP Allocation to Cash
Replies: 7
Views: 4744

Re: Emergency Fund and PP Allocation to Cash

Off topic, but you might want to figure out how to live on less than $60k/year in the event of job loss. Just calculated my cost of living, and it is similar. Interesting to think that I spend more than the typical American family makes in a year. And, because I work long hours, I am frequently exh...
by BearBones
Mon Dec 12, 2011 5:13 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: ChrisMartenson.com
Replies: 160
Views: 40220

Re: ChrisMartenson.com

I appreciate the critique. I am much less sanguine about the adaptability of humans. Rather than accept change, we tend to deny and blame (the Chinese, the Islamic extremists, the immigrants, the liberals, the government, the conservatives, etc). But I would like to think that you are right. I am in...
by BearBones
Wed Dec 07, 2011 9:02 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Do we need more protection than just the PP?
Replies: 94
Views: 37624

Re: Do we need more protection than just the PP?

Lately, I've been thinking that a solution to this concern is to hold a complete PP in another currency. Ideally, I would hold this outside my country of residence, for purposes of increased geographic diversification. One reason I'd like to do this sooner than later is the pending FATCA 30% withho...
by BearBones
Tue Dec 06, 2011 8:49 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: ChrisMartenson.com
Replies: 160
Views: 40220

Re: ChrisMartenson.com

The problem is he only has a few years of serious market observation under his belt... Market observations will only take us so far if the future is different than the past 50 years. Most "market observers" naively assume that, given enough time, things will always go up; hence the standa...
by BearBones
Mon Dec 05, 2011 8:17 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: ChrisMartenson.com
Replies: 160
Views: 40220

Re: ChrisMartenson.com

Can I go out on a limb and guess that this is a hyperinflation and/or high-inflation piece of journalism? Almost. He tries to tie together the "three Es':" Economy, Energy, and the Environment (largely other natural resources). The first is dependent on continued exponential growth while ...
by BearBones
Mon Dec 05, 2011 12:55 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: ChrisMartenson.com
Replies: 160
Views: 40220

ChrisMartenson.com

Has anyone followed Chris Martenson's work? The Crash Course is very logically presented and very scary, and it has definitely changed how I invest. I found the following 80 minute presentation most compelling. Be sure to listen to the Q&A session, if skeptical. http://www.chrismartenson.com/blo...
by BearBones
Mon Dec 05, 2011 10:24 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Wiki Light
Replies: 3
Views: 1958

Wiki Light

OK. The topic of a wiki or book has been discussed at length before on this forum, but to do this well will necessarily take a large commitment and a lot of time. How about this as an alternative (and perhaps a genesis for something more ambitious)? It would be interesting to know what most importan...
by BearBones
Mon Dec 05, 2011 9:44 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: World stock fund for equity portion?
Replies: 19
Views: 11196

Re: World stock fund for equity portion?

Agree. Also agree with all that KevinW has posted on this topic here and in other threads. Read his posts carefully before you do this. We want the 4 components of the PP to be as volatile, uncorrelated, and tied to specific economic conditions as possible. The gains come from the REBALANCING. Addin...
by BearBones
Thu Dec 01, 2011 8:50 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Wiki or book for the Permanent Portfolio?
Replies: 22
Views: 9147

Re: Wiki or book for the Permanent Portfolio?

Another quotable post, MT. That was clever. Don't get me wrong. I love this site. So much so that I had to put it away during the spring because I was spending too much time reading the posts. I began neglecting my kids, inconsistently going to work, forgetting to brush my teeth, and no longer chang...
by BearBones
Mon Nov 28, 2011 10:40 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Wiki or book for the Permanent Portfolio?
Replies: 22
Views: 9147

Re: Wiki or book for the Permanent Portfolio?

I am going to restart this discussion. Two things have happened since the last time i signed on: First, i drifted away from following the discussions on this forum last winter, since I found many to be chatter, and i found that the time invested reading posts on the site was not worth what i was gai...
by BearBones
Sat Jun 11, 2011 6:34 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Dumping US Bonds...
Replies: 23
Views: 12075

Re: Dumping US Bonds...

The U.S. has probably not been any less clumsy than other superpowers in world history.  It's a tough job.  Exactly. That's why they are not superpowers any more... Really think US policies of materialism, dependency on foreign oil, massive debt, overextension of military, and inability to make tou...
by BearBones
Wed Jun 08, 2011 8:21 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Our New Normal?
Replies: 9
Views: 3648

Re: Our New Normal?

Couldn't agree more, MT. The beautiful ending made for a nice NYT letter, but the probability of this is about as low as the executive and legislative branches of our government resolving to reign in entitlements, balance the budget, reform the tax code, and define a rational energy policy, all whil...
by BearBones
Wed Jun 08, 2011 7:57 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Dumping US Bonds...
Replies: 23
Views: 12075

Re: Dumping US Bonds...

China reminds me of a puppy, a bit clumsy, not entirely housebroken and with a tendency to chew its master's slippers when annoyed.  I wonder what kind of dog it will grow into. Like the analogy. But one can also argue that the US has been the clumsy one lately, an aging pit bull that is increasing...
by BearBones
Tue Jun 07, 2011 8:10 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: VTI vs. VTSAX
Replies: 6
Views: 11082

Re: VTI vs. VTSAX

julian wrote: And VTI is better tax wise as their is a loop hole in the tax law regarding capital gain distributions.
Can you explain? I'm curious.
by BearBones
Sun Jun 05, 2011 9:08 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Boycott China..
Replies: 29
Views: 13826

Re: Boycott China..

The idea sounds great, but you will find many things that are not made in the US any more. And that is for a good reason: labor prices are so high here that you could not afford many items if they were. Good luck finding a DVD player that is made exclusively in the States. And if you do, I bet that ...
by BearBones
Sat Jun 04, 2011 9:53 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: VTI vs. VTSAX
Replies: 6
Views: 11082

Re: VTI vs. VTSAX

Other than cost differences, aren't there capital gains differences? My understanding is that many ETFs are more immune to capital gains triggered by others selling off in a market decline. Not sure if this is true with Vanguard though.
by BearBones
Sat Jun 04, 2011 7:16 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Wiki or book for the Permanent Portfolio?
Replies: 22
Views: 9147

Re: Wiki or book for the Permanent Portfolio?

Fantastic idea! This forum is a wonderful asset for exploring ideas, but the real gems get hidden among a lot of mundane discussion. That's why the same questions seem to get posted so many times.
I like the wiki concept for this.
by BearBones
Sat May 28, 2011 2:36 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: The 80/20 Rule in Personal Finance
Replies: 31
Views: 13803

Re: The 80/20 Rule in Personal Finance

I feel that your approach is an over-simplification. And with all due respect: It reeks of the resentment of not being more financially successful.  (And I don't mean that as an attack, as I've frequently felt the same way myself, too.) Not really sure of your point, Coffee. I'm 50ish, live in a ni...