Search found 755 matches

by jhogue
Thu Jan 17, 2019 12:57 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: FDIC risk
Replies: 10
Views: 13214

Re: FDIC risk

Also note that over its two century history, the U.S. Treasury has never failed to make full and prompt payment on Treasury-issued securities. If you own Treasuries, you will never have to stand in line while the FDIC takes over your failed bank and fixes the mess. So, back to the OP's question: I w...
by jhogue
Thu Jan 10, 2019 6:52 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Krugman on taxes
Replies: 47
Views: 19065

Re: Krugman on taxes

I love tax policy when it goes religious. All kinds of tax policies work. All tax policies shape incentives. If a country’s citizens are cool with it, it funds whatever citizens want funded and doesn’t cause large elements of commerce to go black or grey market then the tax is “ok.” One of my favor...
by jhogue
Tue Jan 08, 2019 11:47 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Limiting tax-deferred savings
Replies: 14
Views: 8137

Re: Limiting tax-deferred savings

In principle, MangoMan is right: you probably won’t go too far wrong by deferring as much as you can, as soon as you can, for as long as you can. That said, it also makes sense to build in tax diversification over time using Roth IRAs, Roth conversions, HSAs, savings bonds, or even variable annuitie...
by jhogue
Wed Jan 02, 2019 1:08 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Will Trump be Re-elected?
Replies: 648
Views: 358056

Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

I agree Warren will be interesting, but I wonder if she shot herself in the foot with the whole Native American thing. You can be sure Trump won't ever let her live that down. Cort, you may be right, but I think it is possible that the whole Pocahontas story may appeal to a certain niche of her vot...
by jhogue
Tue Jan 01, 2019 10:06 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Will Trump be Re-elected?
Replies: 648
Views: 358056

Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Everything will be exactly the same, except different. In 2020, Dems will nominate Elizabeth Warren who will rail against plutocrats in banks, Wall Street, and offshore tax havens; but for taxes on Roth IRAs over $1 million, tighter capital controls, and Obamacare Plus Free Everything. Ironically, ...
by jhogue
Sun Dec 30, 2018 10:56 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Worst investing year ever...
Replies: 67
Views: 38564

Re: Worst investing year ever...

I was surprised at how good the HBO movie from "Too Big To Fail" was. Strong performances by William Hurt as Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson and Paul Giamatti as Fed Chair Ben Bernanke. My favorite scene was Paulson (R) literally getting down on his knees and begging Nancy Pelosi (D) to su...
by jhogue
Wed Dec 26, 2018 11:59 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Book rec: The Mandibles
Replies: 19
Views: 6823

Re: Book rec: The Mandibles

I checked it out as an e-book from the local library and read it cover-to-cover on a quiet Christmas Day. Wickedly funny at times, scary SHTF real at others.

The best novel for the libertarian persuasion since Robert Heinlein's The Moon is a Harsh Mistress. Maybe better.
by jhogue
Mon Dec 24, 2018 10:57 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Book rec: The Mandibles
Replies: 19
Views: 6823

Re: Book rec: The Mandibles

Read the excellent review in The New Yorker, based in part on an extensive interview with the author:

https://www.newyorker.com/books/page-tu ... n-collapse
by jhogue
Sat Dec 15, 2018 10:05 am
Forum: Cash
Topic: New I Bond Rate 11/1/18 to 4/30/18
Replies: 48
Views: 57020

Re: New I Bond Rate 11/1/18 to 4/30/18

sophie,
Do you not find it passing strange that some investors fret over whether the US Treasury will make its interest payments on time, but don’t think twice about buying bond funds littered with paper issued by Puerto Rico or Enron?
by jhogue
Fri Dec 14, 2018 10:06 am
Forum: Cash
Topic: New I Bond Rate 11/1/18 to 4/30/18
Replies: 48
Views: 57020

Re: New I Bond Rate 11/1/18 to 4/30/18

I don’t claim to be up on the latest debates over Modern Monetary Theory, but there are some gaping holes in the blogpost you referenced: Mike Norman’s claim that Treasury bonds are “welfare for the rich” strikes me as misleading—perhaps deliberately so. Sure, Warren Buffet’s company has billions in...
by jhogue
Thu Dec 13, 2018 2:23 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: New I Bond Rate 11/1/18 to 4/30/18
Replies: 48
Views: 57020

Re: New I Bond Rate 11/1/18 to 4/30/18

Who sets the fixed rate, and how. Why should they pay us anything...competing with foreign bonds? Private sector bonds? Oddly enough, Treasury has never announced how it determines the I bond fixed rate. The I bond composite rate is composed of both a fixed rate and a variable rate (from the CPI-U ...
by jhogue
Wed Dec 12, 2018 2:56 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: New I Bond Rate 11/1/18 to 4/30/18
Replies: 48
Views: 57020

Re: New I Bond Rate 11/1/18 to 4/30/18

The great thing about buying I bonds right now is that the composite yield is fixed at 2.83% until 5/1/2019. That easily beats a 5 year Treasury at 2.76% (yesterday’s close). But if Treasury rates should continue to rise over the next five years, the I bond variable interest rate will reset upwards ...
by jhogue
Sat Dec 08, 2018 4:18 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: New I Bond Rate 11/1/18 to 4/30/18
Replies: 48
Views: 57020

Re: New I Bond Rate 11/1/18 to 4/30/18

I'm wondering whether to buy my 2019 I-Bonds before May 1, if inflation expectations are receding. ochotona, Wait until mid-April 2019, when the latest figures on of the CPI-U are announced. That will give the new variable rate component for I bonds purchases for the next six months starting 5/1/19...
by jhogue
Sun Dec 02, 2018 11:00 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Stupid to Look at Portfolio Too Often
Replies: 24
Views: 11609

Re: Stupid to Look at Portfolio Too Often

I check my portfolio almost every day. I find it mildly entertaining rather than stressful. As for positive benefits of looking daily, seeing how the components bounce around in random, un-correlated fashion has convinced me that the HBPP dampens overall volatility and gives me a much smoother ride ...
by jhogue
Thu Nov 15, 2018 10:12 am
Forum: Cash
Topic: New I Bond Rate 11/1/18 to 4/30/18
Replies: 48
Views: 57020

Re: New I Bond Rate 11/1/18 to 4/30/18

barrett, 1. I think my situation is similar to yours: retired; holding off to 70 to claim social security; concerned about rising (and mandatory) RMDs after 70. After working through the options on a year-by-year spreadsheet, I am convinced converting my traditional IRA to a Roth IRA before I reach ...
by jhogue
Tue Nov 06, 2018 7:21 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: New I Bond Rate 11/1/18 to 4/30/18
Replies: 48
Views: 57020

Re: New I Bond Rate 11/1/18 to 4/30/18

"Deep cash" is a bit of an odd concept... I started out with the idea of I bonds as deep cash, but I think it makes more sense to think of them as tier 2 of an emergency fund. Tier 1 being whatever amount of liquid cash in your savings account or a money market account that makes sense to...
by jhogue
Sun Nov 04, 2018 11:46 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: New I Bond Rate 11/1/18 to 4/30/18
Replies: 48
Views: 57020

Re: New I Bond Rate 11/1/18 to 4/30/18

"Deep Cash" is that amount of cash above and beyond what is likely to be needed under the worst likely personal crisis situations. Where only 5% of scenarios would require more cash, for example. It's a guess, it's imprecise. Because of my job in the crappy oil industry, I have an emergen...
by jhogue
Sat Nov 03, 2018 2:57 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: New I Bond Rate 11/1/18 to 4/30/18
Replies: 48
Views: 57020

Re: New I Bond Rate 11/1/18 to 4/30/18

1. Liquidity preference is, by definition, subjective and personal. There is no second guessing your personal choice for your portfolio, Pug. If ya gotta have it, ya gotta have it. 2. That said, consider this: At some point (hopefully), the HBPP investor’s portfolio grows so large that likely rebala...
by jhogue
Fri Nov 02, 2018 8:34 am
Forum: Cash
Topic: New I Bond Rate 11/1/18 to 4/30/18
Replies: 48
Views: 57020

Re: New I Bond Rate 11/1/18 to 4/30/18

Pugchief, Do you have a better alternative for deep cash than I bonds? I can readily imagine that Warren Buffett doesn't bother investing any of his petty cash in I bonds (or bank CDs for that matter). For those of us in more down-to-earth tax brackets, however, I bonds have all the attractions of T...
by jhogue
Thu Nov 01, 2018 10:21 am
Forum: Cash
Topic: New I Bond Rate 11/1/18 to 4/30/18
Replies: 48
Views: 57020

New I Bond Rate 11/1/18 to 4/30/18

Treasury Direct announced the new I Bond rate this morning. The new fixed rate, which will apply from 1 November 2018 to 30 April 2019, is 0.50%. Added to the previously announced variable rate of 2.33%, the new composite rate will be 2.83%, tax deferred for 30 years and free from state and local ta...
by jhogue
Fri Oct 26, 2018 1:36 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: The official end of Swiss bank secrecy
Replies: 16
Views: 8084

Re: The official end of Swiss bank secrecy

Dualstow, I find it ironic that an Italian newspaper complains about high profile foreigners hiding their ill-gotten gains in Swiss banks. It is common knowledge in Italy that (literally) millions of Italians hide money in Swiss banks because they historically have not trusted their own country’s go...
by jhogue
Thu Oct 25, 2018 1:06 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Cash has exceeded my rebalance band, but....?
Replies: 23
Views: 11311

Re: Cash has exceeded my rebalance band, but....?

Kbg,

1. You make an excellent point about accounting for tax implications.

2. I absolutely agree that you want to have a long term strategy for Cash, which is precisely why I am such a fan of I bonds.
by jhogue
Thu Oct 25, 2018 9:43 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Cash has exceeded my rebalance band, but....?
Replies: 23
Views: 11311

Re: Cash has exceeded my rebalance band, but....?

1. I decided last year to switch last year from annual rebalancing to 15/35 bands. Not market timing, but hoping to favorably catch future market swings. 2. Remember that, in the short run, you can never have too much Cash. In fact, more than any of the four HBPP assets, Cash makes me feel rich. 3, ...
by jhogue
Tue Oct 23, 2018 5:00 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: The official end of Swiss bank secrecy
Replies: 16
Views: 8084

Re: The official end of Swiss bank secrecy

dualstow, I am afraid that you have mischaracterized Swiss attitudes toward both privacy and crime. Paul Erdman, an American novelist who had once been the CEO of a Swiss private bank, said that the difference between the Swiss and the Americans is that the Swiss are willing to put their white colla...
by jhogue
Tue Oct 16, 2018 12:58 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: Cash is King!
Replies: 12
Views: 14610

Re: Cash is King!

If possible, why not split your purchase? Also, given the recent rise in interest rates and inflation, I think the better deals are to found right now in shorter maturities than your 5 year bank CD. Consider: 1. One year US Treasury bill @ 2.70%. 2. Series I savings bond, currently @ 2.62%. (Wait to...