Search found 2751 matches

by Tortoise
Wed Mar 11, 2020 6:46 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Coronavirus General Discussion
Replies: 5196
Views: 1773974

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

I haven't finished listening to the public health interview on Joe Rogan, but a couple of the key points I've heard so far: COVID-19 spreads not just through touch and fluids, but through breath . Even before symptoms appear, the concentration of COVID-19 virus in people's throats is ~10,000x higher...
by Tortoise
Wed Mar 11, 2020 6:38 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: BP and XOM?
Replies: 12
Views: 4313

Re: BP and XOM?

Ad Orientem wrote:
Wed Mar 11, 2020 6:31 pm
...the curve of history is bending against oil...
<Paging MediumTex to resurrect the "Overshoot" thread>
by Tortoise
Tue Mar 10, 2020 4:23 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Coronavirus General Discussion
Replies: 5196
Views: 1773974

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

I'm surprised that letter didn't include any recommendations about getting enough sleep. Sleep is so important to the immune system. Over the years, many of my worst colds and flus hit me immediately after a day or two of marked sleep deprivation. And on my most recent international work travel in F...
by Tortoise
Mon Mar 09, 2020 6:50 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Trump as tragicomedy
Replies: 958
Views: 379851

Re: Trump as tragicomedy

I haven't kept up with Scott Adams in the past few days. What exactly is he unhappy about? I think Trump has been doing everything possible. The thing I heard Scott Adams rant about was the press conference where Trump said he’d prefer everyone on the cruise ship off the coast of California to rema...
by Tortoise
Mon Mar 09, 2020 6:01 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Negative interest rates
Replies: 57
Views: 24484

Re: Negative interest rates

If the government pays it's debt down, it removes money from the supply... which tightens liquidity... which forces someone somewhere to have to take out more debt. Not if they choose to spend less instead of take on more debt, right? To take an extreme example, consider someone who goes completely...
by Tortoise
Mon Mar 09, 2020 5:56 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Coronavirus General Discussion
Replies: 5196
Views: 1773974

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Any theories as to why Italy has been hit so hard by COVID-19 so much earlier than other Western countries? I've heard some people claim it's because Italy's population is skewed so heavily toward people over 60 years old, but to me that doesn't fully explain it. There are many other countries with ...
by Tortoise
Mon Mar 09, 2020 5:49 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Negative interest rates
Replies: 57
Views: 24484

Re: Negative interest rates

The entire country is like one giant balance sheet. The governments (and corporations) deficit expansion post financial crisis is what allowed the households to delever so efficiently. Household debt in the U.S. is now the best it's been in decades! You cannot change one side of the equation withou...
by Tortoise
Mon Mar 09, 2020 5:44 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Stock scream room
Replies: 1438
Views: 644743

Re: Stock scream room

Just checked my google sheet again. It's within bands so no rebalancing today. So, we wait.... I can share this little rebalance checker if anyone is interested, although it would be nice to figure out how to include interest/dividends. Anyone know how you can get that info out of googlefinance? I ...
by Tortoise
Mon Mar 09, 2020 5:21 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Negative interest rates
Replies: 57
Views: 24484

Re: Negative interest rates

The only other option, and God help us all if they go this route, is to try to run a surplus to pay the deficit down. If the government runs a surplus, it means that households and corporations necessarily have to run an equally large deficit. That's when all of our lives get really miserable. Care...
by Tortoise
Mon Mar 09, 2020 12:41 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The Permanent Portfolio May Be About To Break
Replies: 21
Views: 14643

Re: The Permanent Portfolio May Be About To Break

I believe long bonds are going to be the most "interesting" part of the portfolio going forward, by a long shot. +1 Long bonds have already been the most "interesting" part of the portfolio for the past 10 years that I've been a PP investor. They always seem to pop up out of nowhere and carry the p...
by Tortoise
Sun Mar 08, 2020 7:28 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Trump as tragicomedy
Replies: 958
Views: 379851

Re: Trump as tragicomedy

I haven't kept up with Scott Adams in the past few days. What exactly is he unhappy about? I think Trump has been doing everything possible. The thing I heard Scott Adams rant about was the press conference where Trump said he’d prefer everyone on the cruise ship off the coast of California to rema...
by Tortoise
Sun Mar 08, 2020 4:34 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Negative interest rates
Replies: 57
Views: 24484

Re: Negative interest rates

I still don't see the point of intentionally lending people money and getting back less in return. Just don't lend them the money in the first place and you make a higher.... "return." I totally agree for small amounts of cash. But for larger amounts, like nest eggs and large businesses, physical c...
by Tortoise
Sun Mar 08, 2020 4:24 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Trump as tragicomedy
Replies: 958
Views: 379851

Re: Trump as tragicomedy

Even Scott Adams, one of the biggest admirers of Trump in the podcasting world, is pretty unhappy about how Trump has been handling the coronavirus and the related press conferences. He was almost cursing about it on one if his most recent episodes.
by Tortoise
Sun Mar 08, 2020 2:42 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: What would it take to cause you to lose faith in the PP?
Replies: 50
Views: 17858

Re: What would it take to cause you to lose faith in the PP?

I haven’t lost faith in the PP yet. In fact, I’m liking it now more than ever. Just compared PP vs. all-stock performance over the past three years (Mar 6 to Mar 6). Both have returned a total of ~30%, but the PP did it with 65% less volatility than stocks. This is exactly why I became a PP investor...
by Tortoise
Sat Mar 07, 2020 6:46 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Negative interest rates
Replies: 57
Views: 24484

Re: Negative interest rates

Negative interest rates aren’t so weird in a deflationary environment, in which the rate of inflation is negative.

So my guess is that if we see negative interest rates in the U.S. for a long period of time, it will be during a long, drawn-out deflation.
by Tortoise
Thu Mar 05, 2020 9:34 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Negative interest rates
Replies: 57
Views: 24484

Re: Negative interest rates

Okay, let’s reexamine it.

Alternative portfolio suggestions?
by Tortoise
Thu Mar 05, 2020 2:49 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Coronavirus General Discussion
Replies: 5196
Views: 1773974

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

In a related note, I had already thought that seeing all these companies shutting down entire office buildings and making people work from home indefinitely might be a turning point where some companies see that they don't need as much big expensive office space and start thinking about ramping up ...
by Tortoise
Thu Mar 05, 2020 1:01 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Coronavirus General Discussion
Replies: 5196
Views: 1773974

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

dualstow wrote:
Thu Mar 05, 2020 9:52 am
David Faber asked an important question this morning: How do you know when to re-open schools?
Plot twist: People will discover that their kids are learning more while staying home from school than while attending it, so the schools will never re-open.
by Tortoise
Wed Mar 04, 2020 2:36 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Coronavirus General Discussion
Replies: 5196
Views: 1773974

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

The guy who has the avatar to beat all others is Tyler. It's Nicolas Freakin' Cage. One look at this face and Coronavirus is gonna be a runnin'. MediumTex’s avatar is up there, too: Ash from Evil Dead. In the zombie apocalypse, you want Ash on your team. https://www.gyroscopicinvesting.com/forum/do...
by Tortoise
Mon Feb 24, 2020 5:17 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Democrats reversal on illegal immigration
Replies: 9
Views: 3010

Re: Democrats reversal on illegal immigration

I haven't been following politics very closely lately. Is there actually a current Democratic presidential candidate considered more left-wing than Bernie?
by Tortoise
Mon Feb 24, 2020 5:14 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3688
Views: 1654840

Re: The GOLD scream room

If Budd were still here, he would be complaining that gold and bonds "failed to buoy the PP as advertised" since they merely softened the blow from stocks instead of more than offsetting the losses ;D
by Tortoise
Fri Feb 21, 2020 1:53 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Mom and Pop Are On Epic Stock Buying Spree Fueled by Free Trades
Replies: 12
Views: 8379

Re: Mom and Pop Are On Epic Stock Buying Spree Fueled by Free Trades

Maybe just one other indicator of ringing the bell at the top. Yes, I think so. The other day, a coworker told me about a guy at my company who invested $1M in Tesla stock when it was a little over $200/share, then recently cashed out and retired after it skyrocketed. These sorts of get-rich-quick ...
by Tortoise
Wed Feb 19, 2020 2:27 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Fidelity site says I have $0.00
Replies: 6
Views: 1943

Re: Fidelity site says I have $0.00

Reminds me of the time I temporarily became rich when SGOL shares were split by 10x and my financial institutions were reflecting the new number of shares but hadn’t yet updated to the new (10x lower) price.
by Tortoise
Fri Feb 14, 2020 6:03 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Which Gold ETF Would You Recommend Now?
Replies: 15
Views: 10666

Re: Which Gold ETF Would You Recommend Now?

SGOL might be another one worth considering. I hold some of it. Similar expense ratio and assets under management as GLDM (although its average volume seems to be lower for some reason).
by Tortoise
Mon Feb 10, 2020 6:24 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: A Fed Thread
Replies: 19
Views: 6434

Re: A Fed Thread

boglerdude wrote:
Mon Feb 10, 2020 12:26 am
She's a trump supporter and will do a 180 on gold like Greenspan did, to keep her position of power.
Exactly. Doesn’t matter if she supports a gold standard. If she gets a position of power, she’ll get the “big girl briefing” and be forced to toe the line like everyone else.