Well, TLT is a good example, yes. So this is where I get lost. Two scenarios: 1) I buy a 30 year bond from treasury direct. 30 years from now I get my original principal plus whatever interest along the way. 2) I buy an equivalent $ amount of TLT. What am I getting in 30 years? Since they have to c...

MangoMan wrote: ↑Thu Aug 11, 2022 11:32 am Thanks for the backup, I Shrugged.

Again, this is why so many smart people who used to post here and lean right stopped. It's exhausting.

+1000

Something I realized way too late in my investing career was recency bias. Recency bias in the portfolio sphere is when people gravitate to things that have good track records at a given point in time...and because that is the case, shortly thereafter the asset/portfolio normally will often be retu...

My grandparents were of the depression generation. They never had really high paying jobs nor did they ever invest a penny into the stock market or real estate etc. However, they did retire with a pretty good nestegg thanks to thrifty savings and also the fact that they saved most of their money in ...

FYI -- I published a new post today that reviewed portfolio returns in the first half of 2022, and it included a section on this topic. Halfway to Nowhere: 2022 Mid-Year Portfolio Rankings Be sure to take a look at the "stock sectors" chart in the article and think about what the resultin...

A Total stock market index fund seems to me the definition of doing nothing. I have become more and more a fan of total instead of any slice and dice stock funds. I would disagree. Index funds are active funds as they add stocks when the corresponding index adds them and then they sell stocks with ...

Great stories, for sure. But, for every one of those winners, there are probably at least 10 losers who bought stocks in companies that went bust. LIke, say, Enron. Or Eastman Kodak. Or Woolworths. What would have happened to a person who bought the equivalent of an index fund instead of stock XYZ?...

A Total stock market index fund seems to me the definition of doing nothing. I have become more and more a fan of total instead of any slice and dice stock funds. I would disagree. Index funds are active funds as they add stocks when the corresponding index adds them and then they sell stocks with ...

A Total stock market index fund seems to me the definition of doing nothing. I have become more and more a fan of total instead of any slice and dice stock funds. I would disagree. Index funds are active funds as they add stocks when the corresponding index adds them and then they sell stocks with ...

Great stories, for sure. But, for every one of those winners, there are probably at least 10 losers who bought stocks in companies that went bust. LIke, say, Enron. Or Eastman Kodak. Or Woolworths. What would have happened to a person who bought the equivalent of an index fund instead of stock XYZ?...

Although most people on the forum now tend to dismiss Budd, either I missed or there never was a great response to his opinion. If we are actually in a multi-year trend of slowly rising interest rates, what will keep the PP or any Risk Parity portfolio from having the losses we have seen this year h...

I am pretty familiar with these defined maturity funds from Ishares and Invesco. I use them quite a bit for known expenses in the future.

Here ya go...this is how it happens https://pwco.com/how-bond-portfolios-lose-money-and-bounce-back/ Of course reality and interest rates moving around make it more complex but the end effect is the same...complete self-healing over time (largely tied to duration length) The problem with the exampl...

Anyone doing it? Buy and hold high beta stocks across the broad market. I went back in the old threads where this was raised and the primary objection was cost. Well, times have changed and now with free trades, it’s cheaper to run your own index. Say 25-50, equally weighted, across the broad marke...

fp, Great response. I think I'm near 100% in agreement. I've got a different take on how to get us there though. Term limits. My observation is that anti-establishment turns establishment fairly quickly. Whether you are a Maga or Squad/Berniesta, they're both batting for special interests by and la...

Primaries are up first, so I think the poll most reasonably is asking about that. Sounds like everybody here has somebody else they like better. But, could he still sneak through if everybody doesn't agree on who else? In which case in the general it's the "lesser of two evils" question. ...

For me, LTTs are a buffer against deflationary shocks (2008, 2020, et al.) and an insurance policy against a Second Great Depression that lasts a generation. I would be a fanatical gold-bug if the PP didn't protect me from myself so well, so for me to admit that a protracted deflationary regime car...

Okay, sorry I misinterpreted. I think I understand the positions of the recent posters here. If you look at some of the older posts, there were many that denied the reality of Covid, but I'm glad to see that the present discussions are more reasonable. After a million plus deaths from Covid in the ...

If we agree that COVID is airborne, why the vitriol against masks? What's the downside to wearing one to avoid the chance of getting long COVID? There is not vitriol over someone else wearing a mask..just one over making me or my special needs son wear one in school all day long including outside i...

BA5 is kicking ass and taking names. Whether the response is warranted is another question. I know I'm totally outvoted on this forum so I'll just zip my mouth. Several friends have tested positive recently, I assume it's BA5. It seems to be relatively mild, at least in these younger folks. But yea...

BA5 is kicking ass and taking names. Whether the response is warranted is another question. I know I'm totally outvoted on this forum so I'll just zip my mouth. Several friends have tested positive recently, I assume it's BA5. It seems to be relatively mild, at least in these younger folks. But yea...

Dr. Brix admits in her book that she lied. Guess what? She's not the only liar. What is truly amazing is that they are continuing this (see LA County) and there isn't massive pushback. Why? Because there are so many people still brainwashed by the original lies, they just can't get past their false...

Surely that also means that the infection- and case-fatality rates will approach zero. I am not sure that matters. Deaths are rarely quoted any more. The decisions now seem to all be based on the percentage of increase. The cases and hospitalizations here now are much lower than they were last year...

Again reporting from "ultra-liberal" Western Massachusetts where the vaunted liberal authoritarianism does NOT seem to reign. Yesterday I was at a music event. I was there from about 2 PM to 11:30 PM. There were two stages inside and one stage outside. There were a lot of people there. Wh...

I saw a news article today that said "chances are you will catch COVID over and over again". So much for flattening the curve and returning to normal. Of course at this point no one even cares anymore. Our local health authority also told us to expect a 7th wave this summer. It's old hat....