Search found 211 matches

by blackomen
Fri Apr 04, 2014 10:15 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?
Replies: 571
Views: 329424

Re: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?

I'm considering converting my Traditional IRA portfolio to a 2x PP (technically a 2.66x PP) using 2x ETFs, at least right now when interest rates are low: 33% SSO 33% UGL 33% UBT I won't do this in my taxable accounts.  First, I can't touch this money until I'm 59.5 without penalties so I might as w...
by blackomen
Sat Mar 01, 2014 4:20 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: How was the PP experience in 2008?
Replies: 4
Views: 3922

How was the PP experience in 2008?

We all know how the PP turned out in 2008 in hindsight but I'm wondering how was the experience holding it during the market turmoil at the time?  I'm more interested in the psychological experience, since it still suffered a 15 - 20% drawdown despite being overall flat for the year.  Did you consid...
by blackomen
Sun Feb 23, 2014 12:36 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP is in 'buy' mode
Replies: 8
Views: 4167

Re: PP is in 'buy' mode

My proprietary model's showing buy for TLT and sell for GLD and SPY..
by blackomen
Tue Jan 28, 2014 10:44 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Vacations
Replies: 21
Views: 9412

Re: Vacations

You could come here to California..  we've been having unseasonably warm weather this month (did all the heat from the East Coast escape here?)

It's gonna cool down a bit in a week..  so check with your airlines if they have any last minute seats to California available they'd like to fill cheaply..
by blackomen
Tue Jan 21, 2014 11:50 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Net Neutrality
Replies: 29
Views: 9398

Re: Net Neutrality

The only way #2 would still work in a world where Net Neutrality is illegal is if all the Internet Service Providers got together in a cartel (a la OPEC) and strictly enforced access controls to various websites and domains all across the board.  Otherwise, free markets will triumph.
by blackomen
Tue Jan 21, 2014 9:08 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: (Article) The Economics of being an independent porn star
Replies: 4
Views: 2463

Re: (Article) The Economics of being an independent porn star

Ha. This problem is not unique to female porn stars. Look at the avg NFL or NBA player: Comes from poor upbringing > instantly becomes rich [minimum salary in the NFL is $375,000, median $770,000, often signing bonuses push those numbers well over a million] source > squanders $ on fancy and expens...
by blackomen
Mon Jan 20, 2014 10:57 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: What is your view on Hedge Funds?
Replies: 9
Views: 6552

Re: What is your view on Hedge Funds?

When I get rich enough, the only one I'd ever consider investing in is Bridgewater's All Weather..
by blackomen
Mon Jan 20, 2014 10:55 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Favorite VP Investment?
Replies: 18
Views: 12039

Re: Favorite VP Investment?

I'm in the process of designing a quantitative trading program to swing trade various index ETFs like the Dow, Russel 2000, various country indices, etc..  it'll probably be no more than 5% of my entire portfolio.
by blackomen
Mon Jan 20, 2014 10:47 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: (Article) The Economics of being an independent porn star
Replies: 4
Views: 2463

(Article) The Economics of being an independent porn star

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101345320 One problem unique about being a porn star (and related careers in adult entertainment) is that one's earnings decreases as their age increases (esp for females), while in the vast majority of other careers, one's earnings increases with age.  Too often, I read about...
by blackomen
Sun Jan 12, 2014 4:18 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 2014 Predictions (just for fun)
Replies: 57
Views: 31024

Re: 2014 Predictions (just for fun)

I'm not surprised 2013's best AND worst performing assets (Stocks and Gold) hold highest in this survey..

I think Gold has a slightly better shot than Stocks, so I'm going with that.
by blackomen
Mon Dec 09, 2013 9:29 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Account Executive for PP
Replies: 20
Views: 9062

Re: Account Executive for PP

Sounds like a very cush job if it exists..  :)

Hopefully I'll have a shot next year once I get my securities license.
by blackomen
Fri Dec 06, 2013 2:46 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Would anything work better than the PP in this situation?
Replies: 2
Views: 2670

Would anything work better than the PP in this situation?

(Original post: http://www.analystforum.com/forums/investments/91325287) You have $110 million in cash but currently owe  $100 million to a loan shark. The terms of the loan are: No prepayments are allowed, even if you have more money than what's owed at that moment. No periodic interest payments ar...
by blackomen
Thu Oct 24, 2013 8:35 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: New OS on Old Computer?
Replies: 24
Views: 8471

Re: New OS on Old Computer?

I've used Ubuntu since 2006 on the same desktop machine and have only had to reinstall once (in 2011). I don't think I've ran into any problems that require more technical skill than the typical problem Windows users run into.  There's no "registry" to edit but you may need to open up a command line...
by blackomen
Wed Oct 23, 2013 8:28 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Any "Breaking Bad" Fans Here?
Replies: 348
Views: 128849

Re: Any "Breaking Bad" Fans Here?

I never watched a single episode of this series until early this month..  just finished it all yesterday..  pretty amazing, makes me want to visit Albuquerque some day as I've found some of the locations in the movie on Yelp (i.e. the dog house restaurant.)
by blackomen
Mon Aug 26, 2013 9:39 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Anyone put their emergency fund in the PP?
Replies: 3
Views: 3313

Anyone put their emergency fund in the PP?

My rule of thumb is that if the cash in my bank accounts exceeds $1000, then I must contribute to my PP..  I have well over 2 years of expenses saved in my PP, and $1000 is more than enough for emergencies since I'm single, debt-free, and frugal..  if I need anything more, I can just sell some PP as...
by blackomen
Fri Aug 23, 2013 11:51 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Rick Ferri Dissing HBPP
Replies: 25
Views: 14752

Re: Rick Ferri Dissing HBPP

I can see Rick's point of view as it's pretty common among those with a strong and prestigious academic understanding of Finance. I only started buying gold in 2009..  mostly as a speculative hedge against the possibility of inflation from QE (which never materialized.) I'd have to agree with most o...
by blackomen
Fri Aug 23, 2013 11:24 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: We will know more about this stock rally in three months.
Replies: 49
Views: 24523

Re: We will know more about this stock rally in three months.

I don't think that's what is going to happen, but it will be fun to watch it unfold. How about this: SPY 180 GLD 170 TLT  95 (As of Dec 31). This is basically wishful thinking (for the sake of my VP), but I could see it unfolding like this. Closest prediction to my own.. SPY 170 GLD 150 TLT 95 Pret...
by blackomen
Tue Aug 20, 2013 2:36 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Don't become a software engineer
Replies: 17
Views: 6776

Re: Don't become a software engineer

Back in 2007 (right before the financial crisis), I was debating what to study in grad school.. my biggest passion was computer science but my folks strongly encouraged me to pursue my other passion: Finance and I chose it. Still, to this day, I wonder what my life would have been if I had taken the...
by blackomen
Fri Aug 16, 2013 2:57 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Secular low in bonds not reached
Replies: 36
Views: 19756

Re: Secular low in bonds not reached

Just don't tell them the secret sauce... "We have provided a consistent 3-6% annual REAL return over the last 30 years. Our unique investment approach tactically allocates funds based on market conditions across multiple distinct asset classes." (Aka, 4x25. 15/35 rebalance bands) Although maybe go ...
by blackomen
Thu Aug 08, 2013 1:23 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Suggestions for 5x20?
Replies: 23
Views: 13101

Re: Suggestions for 5x20?

Some ideas for the 20%:

PRPFX
REITs
Private Equity
Hedge Funds
Bitcoins
by blackomen
Wed Aug 07, 2013 12:14 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: NBC Dumps "Predator" Host Chris Hansen
Replies: 4
Views: 1891

Re: NBC Dumps "Predator" Host Chris Hansen

If the perpetrators caught by Hansen had the option to be shown on TV in exchange for a reduced sentence, I would have had less problem with the show.  But I never heard of anyone being shown with their explicit approval.
by blackomen
Wed Aug 07, 2013 12:10 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: One Up On Wall Street?
Replies: 11
Views: 3481

Re: One Up On Wall Street?

Keep in mind this book was written in a period when index investing wasn't as common (I don't think the SPY etf was even out yet)..  so stock picking was thought of as the way to go.
by blackomen
Wed Aug 07, 2013 12:08 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Secular low in bonds not reached
Replies: 36
Views: 19756

Re: Secular low in bonds not reached

Back in the early 1980s when 30 year treasury bonds were yielding over 10%, defined benefit pension plans were modeling future employer contributions based upon an 8% expected future return on assets.  I often ask people who were working with pension plans back then whether it crossed anyone's mind...
by blackomen
Tue Aug 06, 2013 11:45 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Tempted to rebalance at 30
Replies: 20
Views: 12074

Re: Tempted to rebalance at 30

I think the results aren't that much different for 20/30 rebalancing vs. 15/35..  I personally make rebalancing optional at 20/30 (based on my own discretion) and mandatory at 15/35.