Search found 176 matches

by Thomas Hoog
Mon Jan 06, 2014 7:25 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 2014 Predictions (just for fun)
Replies: 57
Views: 31031

Re: 2014 Predictions (just for fun)

Kshartle wrote: VTI    +9%
TLT    -18%
GLD    +50%
SHY    +.4%

HBPP    +10.5%


Bonus - SLV +75%
well, at least we agree on the direction, but 50 % GLD is a bit optimistic. First inflation has to rock, before GLD will rise. IMO.
by Thomas Hoog
Mon Jan 06, 2014 7:15 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Predictions For 2013
Replies: 95
Views: 33837

Re: Predictions For 2013

I have proven in the past to be the worst prophet of all, so be aware VTI: +32 % TLT: - 8 % GLD  -12 % SHY  + 4 % makes + 4 % portfolio not to bad, but I have a crystal ball Spectacular getting direction right 4/4 and degree so spot on with VTI and close with TLT. I do have a question though.....wh...
by Thomas Hoog
Wed Jan 01, 2014 4:26 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 2014 Predictions (just for fun)
Replies: 57
Views: 31031

Re: 2014 Predictions (just for fun)

VTI +10%
TLT -8%
GLD +4%
SHY +1%

makes for the portfolio:+ 1,5 %
by Thomas Hoog
Wed Jan 01, 2014 3:54 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Predictions For 2013
Replies: 95
Views: 33837

Re: Predictions For 2013

Thomas Hoog wrote: I have proven in the past to be the worst prophet of all, so be aware
VTI: +32 %
TLT: - 8 %
GLD  -12 %
SHY  + 4 %
makes + 4 % portfolio
not to bad, but I have a crystal ball
by Thomas Hoog
Fri Nov 22, 2013 4:46 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold and real interest rates
Replies: 5
Views: 4037

Re: Gold and real interest rates

That is, in the current environment, one would expect gold prices to be rising, and yet they aren't.  Why not? Negative real interest rates have historically been present when the central banks are trying to use monetary policy to offset an economic dislocation (recession).  Investor psychology at ...
by Thomas Hoog
Fri Nov 15, 2013 3:42 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: sold s&p 500 today to rebalance
Replies: 13
Views: 10302

Re: sold s&p 500 today to rebalance

I have rebalanced one month ago. Every cell in my brain says: don''t. But it has works very well in the past. Just keep to your strategy.
It is the hardest aspect of investing.
by Thomas Hoog
Fri Nov 15, 2013 3:38 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Value investing
Replies: 6
Views: 4021

Re: Value investing

You use the term "Value investing" and you reffer to sites concerning Dividend Growth.
These are different strategies. So I'm not sure what you want
by Thomas Hoog
Thu Nov 14, 2013 7:55 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Changing to global stocks and gold only
Replies: 137
Views: 53984

Re: Changing to global stocks and gold only

It angers me because it is misleading and has costed me in missing an opportunity I clearly saw. But if you clearly saw it, then why didn't you do it?  How did the PP interfere with the decision? I self attacked after failing with silver and precious mining stocks in 2008. I threw in the towel. Sai...
by Thomas Hoog
Wed Nov 13, 2013 3:43 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Changing to global stocks and gold only
Replies: 137
Views: 53984

Re: Changing to global stocks and gold only

Reub, here you can see in detail what I was invested in in 2008 (it's dutch article but table is english): http://www.marcdemesel.be/2012/02/mijn-portefeuille-verliest-3-in-2011.html Basically I had a PP for the most part, and some speculations, a portfolio with stocks by Puplava securities as well...
by Thomas Hoog
Sun Nov 10, 2013 10:11 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Is the successful salaried retail investor a myth?
Replies: 120
Views: 49774

Re: Is the successful salaried retail investor a myth?

Well, back on topic I track my "wealth" grow since 2000. And I think I can retire if the portfolio growth exceeds my present income for 5 rolling years. So I don't calculate inflation, however I will have less costs due to morgage paying off and the kids leaving the house. According to the present f...
by Thomas Hoog
Fri Nov 08, 2013 3:32 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Overcoming inflation for good
Replies: 10
Views: 4595

Re: Overcoming inflation for good

some cultural differences: we only have public schools You rather be dead then visiting the health care in the UK A bike is expensive Somehow I'm very unpractical, just can't can't fix anything But I do have 2 chickens, which provide me with 3 eggs in the week during spring and summer. But I agree w...
by Thomas Hoog
Thu Nov 07, 2013 4:39 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Variable portfolio based on "Timing" the 4 asset classes.
Replies: 46
Views: 28929

Re: Variable portfolio based on "Timing" the 4 asset classes.

http://dripinvesting.org/
and for coke it is 51 years
and i have started a dividend growth portfolio, just for fun and retirement income. I will tell in january
by Thomas Hoog
Mon Nov 04, 2013 8:03 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Variable portfolio based on "Timing" the 4 asset classes.
Replies: 46
Views: 28929

Re: Variable portfolio based on "Timing" the 4 asset classes.

Coca Cola gained 70 % in the last decade, 7 % average pro year Nice, it just doesn't make you rich. I made with a bit tweaked PP portfolio the last decade 7% pro year. Nice, but I'm not rich. Berkshire hathaway gained 116 %, 11,6 % average. He is good and he is rich. (and an execption). Bank of Amer...
by Thomas Hoog
Sun Nov 03, 2013 6:52 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Variable portfolio based on "Timing" the 4 asset classes.
Replies: 46
Views: 28929

Re: Variable portfolio based on "Timing" the 4 asset classes.

It is based on the Ivy timed model
See Mebane Faber
http://www.mebanefaber.com/
You only get rich if you start a succefull business
by Thomas Hoog
Fri Nov 01, 2013 7:39 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Variable portfolio based on "Timing" the 4 asset classes.
Replies: 46
Views: 28929

Re: Variable portfolio based on "Timing" the 4 asset classes.

Well, It is the first of the month. So here we go: Started april first: 2 changes since the first idea: to add commodities as a asset: to have more running horses to gambling on And to change the cash part from 1-3 years bond to 3-5 years bond: just add some more yield knowing you will have 20-40 % ...
by Thomas Hoog
Wed Oct 30, 2013 7:33 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Changing to global stocks and gold only
Replies: 137
Views: 53984

Re: Changing to global stocks and gold only

PEAKtrough: HB balanced Years 32.85 CAGR 7.53% Starting Capital 10,000 Ending Capital 108,566 Total Return 985.66% Max Drawdown 14.37% (1981-01-06 - 1982-03-15) DD > 10% Count 4 Annualized Std. Dev 6.21% Sharpe Ratio 0.42 HB no balanced Years 32.85 CAGR 6.69% Starting Capital 10,000 Ending Capital 8...
by Thomas Hoog
Wed Oct 30, 2013 6:03 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Chances of losing (and winning!) are close to zero.
Replies: 348
Views: 112171

Re: Chances of losing (and winning!) are close to zero.

I have read all 21 pages and it confirms my own experience with investing . Investing is not an exact science any more than economics or predicting the weather. And figures, including the inflation figures are manipulated. But it is a balanced system. A high pressure area always flows to a low press...
by Thomas Hoog
Sun Oct 27, 2013 6:24 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Equity Allocation to World Regions
Replies: 5
Views: 4567

Re: Equity Allocation to World Regions

They don't cover all stocks so I can't enter my portfolio
by Thomas Hoog
Fri Oct 11, 2013 9:36 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP investors--stay the course
Replies: 282
Views: 124058

Re: PP investors--stay the course

Well, I just rebalanced into Gold & LTT from Cash & Stocks, so maybe that set the turning point
by Thomas Hoog
Tue Oct 08, 2013 9:50 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Setting up the stock part of the PP
Replies: 11
Views: 7144

Re: Setting up the stock part of the PP

Just out of sympathie for HB:
25 % own country
25 % Europa
25 % USA
25 % other markets of which:
25% Pacific
25 % Asia
25 % EM
25 Latin America
by Thomas Hoog
Fri Sep 20, 2013 9:40 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: You never know
Replies: 38
Views: 13458

Re: You never know

Just a quote:
"Inflation is like toothpaste. Once she is out of the tube, you will not get them there, ", former Bundesbank president Karl Otto Pohl once said.
by Thomas Hoog
Fri Sep 20, 2013 4:54 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Taper Predictions?
Replies: 37
Views: 14979

Re: Taper Predictions?

:) I like the dog, maybe he/she wants to become our mascotte ? Does it has a name ? Name is "Spot." I hope he continues to rise. I thought maybe we could name it "Chaps." Quess that not being native English, I'm missing the clue. However "spotting": "alle asset classes are up" is more easy to prono...
by Thomas Hoog
Thu Sep 19, 2013 7:20 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Investing in the PP - Why Do I Feel Like My Head is in the Sand?
Replies: 60
Views: 24805

Re: Investing in the PP - Why Do I Feel Like My Head is in the Sand?

An idea, though not an advise. (who needs a phone).

"Telefonica SA, through its entity Telefonica Europe BV two perpetual bonds issued: the first perpetual bond has a fixed coupon of 6.5% during the first five years, ending on until September 18, 2018."
by Thomas Hoog
Thu Sep 19, 2013 7:10 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Taper Predictions?
Replies: 37
Views: 14979

Re: Taper Predictions?

:) I like the dog, maybe he/she wants to become our mascotte ? Does it has a name ?