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by mathjak107
Mon Sep 04, 2023 2:59 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: I Thought Gold Would Fare Better in 2022-23
Replies: 63
Views: 100250

Re: I Thought Gold Would Fare Better in 2022-23

when we look at gold priced in other currencies it did pretty well against some of them . in india as an example Gold Returns The return from gold from 20 years has been 12%, whereas, in 15 and 10 years, it has been 10.3% and 7.5% respectively. Interestingly, in one year, Gold has outperformed all a...
by mathjak107
Sat Sep 02, 2023 4:10 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: I Thought Gold Would Fare Better in 2022-23
Replies: 63
Views: 100250

Re: I Thought Gold Would Fare Better in 2022-23

gold is the dollars competitor .

as long as the dollar is strong a crises is going to see the dollar win over gold as the place to be
by mathjak107
Sat Sep 02, 2023 4:08 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3689
Views: 1656435

Re: The GOLD scream room

actually over most time frames equities and gold has beaten equities and bonds for more than 2 decades …if anything i wouldn’t single gold out for spending .

kind of crazy that bonds which pays interest have not kept up with equities and gold as far as a balanced portfolio goes
by mathjak107
Mon Aug 14, 2023 4:21 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: TIPS Ladder vs. PP/GB in retirement
Replies: 45
Views: 29876

Re: TIPS Ladder vs. PP/GB in retirement

kitces did a nice article on how the year you were born effects your outcome

https://www.kitces.com/blog/birth-year- ... l-returns/
by mathjak107
Mon Aug 14, 2023 2:50 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: TIPS Ladder vs. PP/GB in retirement
Replies: 45
Views: 29876

Re: TIPS Ladder vs. PP/GB in retirement

independent cycles are pretty irrelevant. they are as close to showing not much difference as monte carlo testing does . monte carlo testing can find a slight worse case outcome sometimes but not much more the fact is every time frame is based on what happened in the time frame before it . historica...
by mathjak107
Mon Aug 14, 2023 1:58 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: TIPS Ladder vs. PP/GB in retirement
Replies: 45
Views: 29876

Re: TIPS Ladder vs. PP/GB in retirement

a 60/40 has ended 30 years with more then one started with 90% of all 123 rolling 30 year cycles to date . 67% of the time it ended with 2x what you started with , and 50% of the time 3x what you ended with . this is at a 4% inflation adjusted draw You willing to bet you'd not be in that 10%? That ...
by mathjak107
Sun Aug 13, 2023 1:27 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: TIPS Ladder vs. PP/GB in retirement
Replies: 45
Views: 29876

Re: TIPS Ladder vs. PP/GB in retirement

a 60/40 has ended 30 years with more then one started with 90% of all 123 rolling 30 year cycles to date . 67% of the time it ended with 2x what you started with , and 50% of the time 3x what you ended with . this is at a 4% inflation adjusted draw You willing to bet you'd not be in that 10%? That ...
by mathjak107
Sat Aug 12, 2023 3:07 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: TIPS Ladder vs. PP/GB in retirement
Replies: 45
Views: 29876

Re: TIPS Ladder vs. PP/GB in retirement

a 60/40 has ended 30 years with more then one started with 90% of all 123 rolling 30 year cycles to date .

67% of the time it ended with 2x what you started with , and 50% of the time 3x what you ended with .

this is at a 4% inflation adjusted draw
by mathjak107
Wed Aug 09, 2023 3:47 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: TIPS Ladder vs. PP/GB in retirement
Replies: 45
Views: 29876

Re: TIPS Ladder vs. PP/GB in retirement

base rate is 1.86% so it is an assumption that the inflation kicker will generate the rest ..but lower inflation expectations will see that kicker fall
by mathjak107
Wed Aug 09, 2023 3:19 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: TIPS Ladder vs. PP/GB in retirement
Replies: 45
Views: 29876

Re: TIPS Ladder vs. PP/GB in retirement

if it don’t sound right it usually aint. ha ha
by mathjak107
Wed Aug 09, 2023 2:08 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: TIPS Ladder vs. PP/GB in retirement
Replies: 45
Views: 29876

Re: TIPS Ladder vs. PP/GB in retirement

you are correct .tips are not returning 4%. this whole premise is flawed. when i inquired in april about how tip returns are calculated because of the high yields posted , jack bowers from fidelity insight wrote me back Matt, When the SEC implemented a bunch of rules for reporting yield-to-maturity ...
by mathjak107
Wed Aug 09, 2023 11:17 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: TIPS Ladder vs. PP/GB in retirement
Replies: 45
Views: 29876

Re: TIPS Ladder vs. PP/GB in retirement

the flaw here is there is still a considerable amount of sequence risk at work . it takes at least a 2% real return the first 15 years of a 30 year retirement for 4% inflation adjusted to hold . tips have performed poorly despite the higher inflation because of rising rates.. they may have a very ha...
by mathjak107
Sun Jul 30, 2023 4:06 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Attention! Mathjak!!!!
Replies: 19
Views: 2099

Re: Attention! Mathjak!!!!

TLT AT 105.75 as an average cost, down a little but considering it fell from 165 not down much.

long term holders got crushed
by mathjak107
Sun Jul 30, 2023 1:11 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Attention! Mathjak!!!!
Replies: 19
Views: 2099

Re: Attention! Mathjak!!!!

it just made sense to me that with rates having no where to go except up it was going to be an awful ride extending out maturity and durations . the only hope we had was really equities running with the ball and i always said that long term bonds would destroy most of the traction equities got well...
by mathjak107
Sun Jul 30, 2023 4:03 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Attention! Mathjak!!!!
Replies: 19
Views: 2099

Re: Attention! Mathjak!!!!

it just made sense to me that with rates having no where to go except up it was going to be an awful ride extending out maturity and durations . the only hope we had was really equities running with the ball and i always said that long term bonds would destroy most of the traction equities got well ...
by mathjak107
Sat Jul 08, 2023 9:26 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: I'M OUT!
Replies: 64
Views: 60051

Re: I'M OUT!

Every time I see this thread title I think it’s a Seinfeld reference. :D O0 One of the finest episodes. that episode won many awards …not only was it really something that could have been easily censored in those days but it never used the actual word once for what they were betting on … wikipedia ...
by mathjak107
Tue Jul 04, 2023 12:59 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold bars on sale at Costco
Replies: 15
Views: 24632

Re: Gold bars on sale at Costco

when i try it , it says item not found
by mathjak107
Sat Jun 17, 2023 5:12 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3689
Views: 1656435

Re: The GOLD scream room

i will have to keep abreast of that interview (*)(*)
by mathjak107
Sat Jun 17, 2023 5:10 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Bond barbell vs. other options
Replies: 12
Views: 2653

Re: Bond barbell vs. other options

interestingly i found that over most time frames i looked at IEF beat the barbell of tlt and cash or tlt and shy .

i would have expected the extra volatility in tlt would have given it an edge but it was consistently slightly behind with a few exceptions
by mathjak107
Mon May 29, 2023 2:52 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3689
Views: 1656435

Re: The GOLD scream room

Tortoise wrote:
Thu May 04, 2023 2:08 pm
dualstow wrote:
Thu May 04, 2023 11:58 am
2060 futures
2050+ spot price (AJPM)
1PM EST
For the first time in a long while, gold is the best-performing asset YTD in the PP. It's even beating LASAGNE! ;)
well now we have a total market fund or s&p fund up 10%. qqq up 31%

TLT UP 2.67

sgov 1.87

gold up 6.67

and sgov a
by mathjak107
Mon May 29, 2023 11:54 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Is anyone else buying TIPS?
Replies: 28
Views: 8968

Re: Is anyone else buying TIPS?

personally i wouldn’t take up valuable tax deferred space with bonds unless i thought i was going see capital gains from selling that may be high..

flipping or rebalancing tlt would warrant it .

at 3-4% interest ,not worth it to me taking up space
by mathjak107
Mon May 29, 2023 5:00 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Is anyone else buying TIPS?
Replies: 28
Views: 8968

Re: Is anyone else buying TIPS?

well we can’t predict what bonds will do but gold is now showing it is down monday because with the deal the thinking is the chances of rates rising just increased. so bonds can go either way tomorrow when we open …i thought the deal would be a good thing for them but after seeing gold this morning ...
by mathjak107
Sun May 28, 2023 4:32 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Is anyone else buying TIPS?
Replies: 28
Views: 8968

Re: Is anyone else buying TIPS?

my personal feeling is that if one wants TIPS and is a PP user i would not make them part of the PP bond holdings as they would suck in a recession or depression in comparison .. but nothing wrong holding them in the VP just like holding commodities on the side and not diluting the gold budget. unfo...
by mathjak107
Sat May 27, 2023 3:39 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Is anyone else buying TIPS?
Replies: 28
Views: 8968

Re: Is anyone else buying TIPS?