Search found 1352 matches

by Hal
Sun Dec 16, 2018 10:13 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Europe (Germany)
Replies: 15
Views: 13003

Re: PP Europe (Germany)

You may find these papers on currency hedging useful if purchasing foreign shares/bonds

https://personal.vanguard.com/pdf/ISGCMC.pdf

https://institutional.vanguard.com/iam/ ... omain=true

Regards,
Hal
by Hal
Mon Dec 10, 2018 3:04 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Funny car advertisement
Replies: 1
Views: 1211

Funny car advertisement

Stumbled upon this old ad from 20 years ago.
Actually had one of these - lasted about 750,000 Kms before someone ran a stop sign and wrecked it :(

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cbBx4Ql6Umo
by Hal
Mon Dec 10, 2018 7:11 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: How does the PP respond to a devaluing currency
Replies: 3
Views: 3840

How does the PP respond to a devaluing currency

First off, thanks to LazyInvestor for his earlier posts on Non-US PP's. I had to re-evaluate some preconceptions! Now after listening to all of HB's radio shows I understand that: 1, In severe, say > 5 to 10% inflation, in a US PP, funds flow from the USD into the next most popular form of money whi...
by Hal
Thu Nov 15, 2018 5:48 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Old HB radio show about Gold
Replies: 14
Views: 7872

Re: Old HB radio show about Gold

This is a critical point. That's why in a number of my previous posts I encouraged non-US investors to stick with a Bogleheads portfolio if they are not willing to run US PP. In recent times, USD was strengthening and gold was not of much help for anyone from Venezuela to Canada. Most of non-US inv...
by Hal
Thu Nov 15, 2018 2:51 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Fear is the mind-killer
Replies: 108
Views: 49698

Re: Fear is the mind-killer

Hi Pointedstick, Good to hear you got your perspective sorted out. You may like to read the Marcus Aurelius's book "Meditations". https://medium.com/personal-growth/marcus-aurelius-how-to-live-without-fear-40f7a16b6515 http://files.libertyfund.org/files/2133/Aurelius_1464_LFeBk.pdf But on ...
by Hal
Wed Nov 14, 2018 6:47 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3693
Views: 1745556

Re: The GOLD scream room

Budd,

Before you stress out too much on Gold, have a listen to Harry.

http://web.archive.org/web/201604021622 ... wne/radio/

Gold talk is dated Sept 19, 2004

Hope you can have a good nights sleep afterwards,
Hal
by Hal
Wed Nov 14, 2018 10:48 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Old HB radio show about Gold
Replies: 14
Views: 7872

Re: Old HB radio show about Gold

I don't know about that. Gold did its job very well in Iceland in 2008. If gold's purpose in the portfolio is to be a default alternative reserve currency, then I suppose you might consider holding a mixture of gold and whatever the #1 reserve currency is. Right now that's the US dollar. But, I per...
by Hal
Tue Nov 13, 2018 11:12 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Old HB radio show about Gold
Replies: 14
Views: 7872

Re: Old HB radio show about Gold

I've got an EU/Global PP, and indeed I feel that gold in the EU PP will behave differently. It's not clear what the alternatives would be, though. At a guess, it would be some hard asset in your particular "economic zone". Perhaps European Farmland ? https://www.agriinvestor.com/tiaa-rais...
by Hal
Mon Nov 12, 2018 8:05 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Old HB radio show about Gold
Replies: 14
Views: 7872

Old HB radio show about Gold

Found a way to kill some time while waiting in traffic... On listening to some of the old HB radio shows, Harry made an interesting comment regarding Gold. He stated that the USD was the worlds "favourite currency" and Gold was the 2nd favourite. When confidence was less in the USD, money ...
by Hal
Thu Oct 25, 2018 8:45 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Anyone using Hard Assets Alliance?
Replies: 7
Views: 4916

Re: Anyone using Hard Assets Alliance?

Perth mint. Government backed. Be aware of this though... In this respect Australia has a relatively higher risk because Australian law already has a mechanism in place to require delivery of gold to the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) - Part IV of the Banking Act 1959. There is no need for the Gov...
by Hal
Mon Oct 15, 2018 4:16 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Overseas Vault Recommendations
Replies: 9
Views: 6178

Re: Overseas Vault Recommendations

You could try this company.

http://www.guardianvaults.com.au

Have used them and it's like out of a James Bond movie going in there.
Absolutely no complaints and always found the service very good
by Hal
Sat Oct 13, 2018 5:00 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Australia Gov't Bond Clause
Replies: 3
Views: 4526

Re: Australia Gov't Bond Clause

Thanks for bringing this to my attention. Definitely concerning. Any ideas as to when the Government might be likely to exercise this option? Is there any precedent? My first thought is "why would the Government care what price it is trading at on the secondary market?" Just spitballing, ...
by Hal
Mon Aug 27, 2018 1:44 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Australian Finance Scenarios
Replies: 0
Views: 5149

Australian Finance Scenarios

For those of you with an exposure to Australia, I highly recommend this analyst.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WCgRcMG_RHk

Summary: Australians overleveraged - something is going to break

Enjoy!
by Hal
Fri Jul 13, 2018 3:53 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: 1950's Supermans Financial Advice
Replies: 0
Views: 2883

1950's Supermans Financial Advice

How the world has changed.... Remember watching these episodes :)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wA1SPhGhvHU
by Hal
Mon Jul 09, 2018 6:29 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Interesting talk on capital preservation
Replies: 19
Views: 13813

Interesting talk on capital preservation

Any thoughts welcome! Enjoy, it runs for 2 1/2 Hrs.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a4_U6bS-cU4
by Hal
Wed Jun 06, 2018 6:19 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Australia Gov't Bond Clause
Replies: 3
Views: 4526

Australia Gov't Bond Clause

Thought any Australians should be aware of this: The Australian Government may at any time, subject to a minimum period of three months’ notice, convert holdings of eTBs to the underlying Treasury Bonds directly registered in the Commonwealth Stock Registry. If this occurred you would continue to re...
by Hal
Sat Jun 02, 2018 5:18 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 600 Members Coming Up
Replies: 63
Views: 35531

Re: 600 Members Coming Up

So now we have 698 members, would anyone mind sharing how they first found out about the Permanent Portfolio? Particularly interested with the newest members as the PP is rarely, if ever, mentioned elsewhere these days. Nothing like the 2008 timeframe.
by Hal
Sat Jun 02, 2018 4:48 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: My Permanent Portfolio Variant
Replies: 25
Views: 18419

Re: My Permanent Portfolio Variant

https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com/2018/03/debt-oped.html From the comments: "Yes, we can easily default on our obligations like we did in 1932 and 1973, And we can do it smoothly as you suggest, with opportunistic and deliberate default via the Fed. Possibly keep inflation under 5% for a ten ...
by Hal
Thu May 31, 2018 1:24 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: My Permanent Portfolio Variant
Replies: 25
Views: 18419

Re: My Permanent Portfolio Variant

As a follow up to some of our previous discussion on international diversification, a memory of Long-Term Capital Management and the Russian debt crisis of 1998 popped into my mind. Is it possible that our faith in the notion that treasury securities are free of default risk is misplaced? I think i...
by Hal
Mon May 28, 2018 1:59 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Pension Fund Gold Allocation
Replies: 0
Views: 2528

Pension Fund Gold Allocation

Stating what Harry Browne knew back in the 1980's

Interesting how close their recommended gold allocations are to HB's 25%

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_cont ... RVuefjc9pk
by Hal
Thu May 24, 2018 12:52 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Risk Parity and the Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 20
Views: 14573

Re: Risk Parity and the Permanent Portfolio

Thanks for your comments Pugchief and Tyler, I must admit it's undefined as to where an Economic Risk Parity model stops and a Volatility Risk Parity Model starts. This table from Stable Investing is informative. Ryan had stated Although the dollar weightings might appear to offer different exposure...
by Hal
Thu May 24, 2018 6:27 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Risk Parity and the Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 20
Views: 14573

Re: Risk Parity and the Permanent Portfolio

1) Volatility Risk Parity: Mathematically balancing the effects of different assets in a portfolio by scaling each asset according to their volatility. A good example would be the All Seasons portfolio, Larry portfolio, and (even if he might not describe it the same way) Desert portfolio. Look at t...
by Hal
Mon May 21, 2018 3:49 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Risk Parity and the Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 20
Views: 14573

Re: Risk Parity and the Permanent Portfolio

I've been working on a breakdown of different portfolio types and have been thinking about this very topic recently. Maybe you guys can help me clarify my ideas. The term "Risk Parity" gets thrown around a lot these days, but the more I think about it the more I believe there are two diff...
by Hal
Tue May 15, 2018 5:22 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Value Investing aka Benjamin Graham
Replies: 2
Views: 2697

Re: Value Investing aka Benjamin Graham

Thanks for your comments Tyler, On pondering this matter a bit more, the PP takes valuations into account by rebalancing back to an even split between bonds and shares. Interestingly, Benjamin Graham mentioned there were times when cash was a better option when both bonds and shares were overvalued....