Search found 83 matches

by Jeffreyalan
Sun Nov 18, 2018 6:42 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold, What is it Good For?
Replies: 25
Views: 16068

Re: Gold, What is it Good For?

The question asked a few posts back is a good one. If Central Banks hold almost 20% of the world’s gold and if some of them (like Russia) are stocking up on it, does that tell me as an individual investor that it needs to be a part of my portfolio? Or are their curcumstances different?
by Jeffreyalan
Wed Oct 17, 2018 6:52 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Discussion with a friend re:PP
Replies: 4
Views: 3138

Discussion with a friend re:PP

So today I was discussing the PP with a friend. He said that he just cannot buy something that he knows will decline. His argument was that at the beginning of 2018, the chances were almost 100% that the FED was going to do 3-4 rate increases over the year. So by buying long term bonds (or TLT) this...
by Jeffreyalan
Tue Oct 16, 2018 7:56 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Purpose of the PP
Replies: 152
Views: 76537

Purpose of the PP

I have been reading (and occasionally) posting on this forum for a while. I have a question for those of you using the PP, either the standard 4x or your own variation. What is the purpose you are using it for? Are you using it as your primary savings vehicle? A secondary savings account? An investm...
by Jeffreyalan
Fri Sep 28, 2018 2:49 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 2 PP Portfolios, 6 months performance
Replies: 39
Views: 19894

Re: 2 PP Portfolios, 6 months performance

My particular PP variant is up 4% since April. It is:

40% TFLO. Ishares Floating Rate Treasury ETF
15% EDV Vanguard Extended Treasury
10% IAU. Ishares Gold ETF
17.5. MDYG Spdr Midcap Growth
17.5 SLYG. Spdr Small Cap Growth


Being low on gold has certainly helped this year.
by Jeffreyalan
Tue Jul 03, 2018 10:27 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Risk Parity and the Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 20
Views: 14445

Re: Risk Parity and the Permanent Portfolio

So what is the harm in tweaking the PP to have more volatility parity? For example, to match volatilities over the past 10 years you would need: 25% Cash (SHV) 25% Gold (GLD) 25% LT Bonds (50% TLT 50% EDV) 25% Small Cap Stocks (SLY) Making those tweaks gives you a CAGR of 7.23% vs 6.14% for the stan...
by Jeffreyalan
Mon Jun 25, 2018 9:22 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: All Treasury Portfolio
Replies: 12
Views: 10742

All Treasury Portfolio

I would like to get the advice of people on this board as I respect your opinions and viewpoints immensely. I am turning 50 this year and have about 15 years until retirement (I hope). So what would be the drawbacks of an all-Treasury portfolio? If the purpose of the PP is to protect against various...
by Jeffreyalan
Fri Jun 08, 2018 1:13 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Opinions on my variable portfolios
Replies: 5
Views: 4548

Re: Opinions on my variable portfolios

Comments on the portfolio...risk, only you can decide. As a minimum, that cash needs to be working for you because there is so much of it. If it isn't being put to work just go ahead and roll about 2.5% of it up every year into a ball and burn it. (Well technically that would double your loss to in...
by Jeffreyalan
Thu Jun 07, 2018 4:29 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Opinions on my variable portfolios
Replies: 5
Views: 4548

Opinions on my variable portfolios

I have been backtesting a couple of variable ETF portfolios for risk vs return and I seem to have found a couple that seem to work for me. Any thoughts on them? Portfolio #1: 40% Cash 25% IJR (small cap index) 20% IAU (gold) 15% EDV (vanguard extended duration) Portfolio #2: 60% Cash 15% IAU (gold) ...
by Jeffreyalan
Thu May 24, 2018 3:52 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Investing new money now
Replies: 22
Views: 15456

Re: Investing new money now

I use M1 Finance as my broker. So it is commission free and I can contribute a lump sum of cash and they will automatically purchase the ETFs in the amounts to get me to my preselected percentages. It seems to be a brokerage tailor made for PP (and other fixed asset allocation) investing. Wow, that...
by Jeffreyalan
Thu May 24, 2018 1:23 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Investing new money now
Replies: 22
Views: 15456

Re: Investing new money now

I use M1 Finance as my broker. So it is commission free and I can contribute a lump sum of cash and they will automatically purchase the ETFs in the amounts to get me to my preselected percentages. It seems to be a brokerage tailor made for PP (and other fixed asset allocation) investing.
by Jeffreyalan
Tue May 22, 2018 3:28 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Investing new money now
Replies: 22
Views: 15456

Re: Investing new money now

I buy the lagging asset, with the same idea that it usually happens to be whatever has been discounted by poor recent performance. This has always been my approach as well. It drives a healthy contrarian buying behavior. So how do you measure the lagging asset? In my case since I am investing in th...
by Jeffreyalan
Tue May 22, 2018 11:19 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Investing new money now
Replies: 22
Views: 15456

Re: Investing new money now

Not to hijack the thread, but for someone who is making regular contributions to the PP, in my case bi-weekly, are there any thoughts as to when or how to invest those funds? Am I better off just buying 25% of each asset bi-weekly? Or should I buy only cash and then rebalance at a set time or when a...
by Jeffreyalan
Tue May 08, 2018 7:37 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Question on safety of ETFs
Replies: 11
Views: 8545

Question on safety of ETFs

So I will confess that back in 2011 I succumbed to the siren call of the “doom porn” crowd. I read Schiff, Rickards and David Morgan. And slowly proceeded to lose several thousand dollars on silver and shorting treasury bonds ( since i was convinced of the $$ collapse any day). Then i finally starte...
by Jeffreyalan
Sun Apr 22, 2018 7:16 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Question on matching volatility
Replies: 4
Views: 4793

Question on matching volatility

Trying to soak up everyone’s knowledge here. Whenever someone asks can I use ZROZ instead of TLT or QQQ instead of Total Stock Market, the answer is usually no because it is too volatile compared to the other PP components. My question is, assuming you don’t mind a bit more volatility, why is this a...
by Jeffreyalan
Sun Apr 22, 2018 1:01 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Minimum time frame for holding PP
Replies: 56
Views: 34973

Re: Minimum time frame for holding PP

Thanks for all the input. For now I think I might do a Desert Portfolio. The drawdowns are enough for me to handle (I think) and I can move to cash a year out.

60% IEF
30% VTI
10% IAU
by Jeffreyalan
Wed Apr 18, 2018 9:01 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Minimum time frame for holding PP
Replies: 56
Views: 34973

Re: Minimum time frame for holding PP

Just trying to understand, although not FDIC insured, wouldn’t a Treasury ETF like SHV or BIL be about as safe a vehicle as could be? If they went bust then all bets might be off correct?
by Jeffreyalan
Wed Apr 18, 2018 7:42 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Minimum time frame for holding PP
Replies: 56
Views: 34973

Re: Minimum time frame for holding PP

Any thoughts on using an ETF for cash needs in the next 3 years? SHV or MINT?
by Jeffreyalan
Tue Apr 10, 2018 3:00 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Barron's Article on ETF lending
Replies: 3
Views: 5962

Barron's Article on ETF lending

https://www.barrons.com/articles/etfs-h ... 1523054918

This article is interesting and points out some potential risks in ETF investing.
by Jeffreyalan
Fri Mar 30, 2018 12:11 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Minimum time frame for holding PP
Replies: 56
Views: 34973

Minimum time frame for holding PP

I would like to get people's opinions on a person's individual investment time frame and holding the PP. You know how advisers will say if you don't have XX amount of years to invest then don't put your money into stocks. Well what is that number for the PP? My situation is that I am able to now put...
by Jeffreyalan
Thu Mar 29, 2018 11:33 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Growth Stock ETFs
Replies: 3
Views: 6011

Growth Stock ETFs

I am sure this has probably been covered before, but what would be the downside of using a broad market growth index fund in lieu of a total market index fund. Using the Russell 1000 Growth ETF (IWF) adds almost .50% a year extra from 2008 until now. Plus the volatility would seem to be a benefit to...
by Jeffreyalan
Thu Mar 22, 2018 10:51 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Stock fund choices and tax efficiency
Replies: 1
Views: 4216

Re: Stock fund choices and tax efficiency

[quote="sophie"] About the single stocks: the idea is to hedge against any issues with index funds, like managers finding ways to game the index system, In what ways? I have always toyed with the idea of skipping index funds and just picking the stocks myself that, like you said, I never sell. Every...
by Jeffreyalan
Sat Mar 17, 2018 8:22 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: ZROZ Etf
Replies: 3
Views: 4029

Re: ZROZ Etf

Any reason why I couldnt make the bond component TLT 20% and ZROZ 5%? Wouldnt the philosophy still hold even if the volutility rises a bit?
by Jeffreyalan
Thu Mar 15, 2018 1:37 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: Treasury Direct for large sums
Replies: 11
Views: 9919

Re: Treasury Direct for large sums

Treasury bills held in your name at Treasury Direct are about as safe, stable, and liquid as you can get. Two possible things to consider: 1. It has never bothered me, but some people think Treasury Direct's website is clunky and unreliable. 2. You cannot establish an IRA through Treasury Direct. F...
by Jeffreyalan
Thu Mar 15, 2018 10:52 am
Forum: Cash
Topic: Treasury Direct for large sums
Replies: 11
Views: 9919

Treasury Direct for large sums

Hello all, I have an inheritance coming and I would like to keep it as safe as possible. So I am thinking of buying Treasury bills with it. Perhaps rolling 1-2 year ones. Does everyone here feel comfortable placing a decent amount of funds in Treasury Direct? I have no reason to not feel safe with t...