Search found 248 matches

by jason
Tue Sep 20, 2022 3:53 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
Replies: 117
Views: 33582

Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

Something I realized way too late in my investing career was recency bias. Recency bias in the portfolio sphere is when people gravitate to things that have good track records at a given point in time...and because that is the case, shortly thereafter the asset/portfolio normally will often be retu...
by jason
Fri Sep 16, 2022 2:11 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold will rise when Fed stops raising interest rates?
Replies: 54
Views: 18423

Re: Gold will rise when Fed stops raising interest rates?

Thus far it seems obvious that the prevailing economic environment is " tight money" and all the PP assets appear to be performing as HB suggested they would in such an environment... poorly. His suggestion that the "tight money" environment is self limiting and usually shifts to a different enviro...
by jason
Thu Sep 15, 2022 11:12 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold will rise when Fed stops raising interest rates?
Replies: 54
Views: 18423

Re: Gold will rise when Fed stops raising interest rates?

Data wise, and academically there is zero proof gold provides anything more than the equivalent allocation in bonds...sometimes more, most of the time less. The only thing you can say is gold always is more volatile than bonds. Whether one includes or excludes the 1970s for US-based gold returns is...
by jason
Thu Sep 15, 2022 11:07 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold will rise when Fed stops raising interest rates?
Replies: 54
Views: 18423

Re: Gold will rise when Fed stops raising interest rates?

fucking idiots Gave me a laugh at least. What is your recommended portfolio allocation? No Gold or LTT’s. I can’t think of a worse portfolio to hold than this one for the last decade plus. All a bunch of garbage. It has proven its worthlessness time after time. If no gold or LTTs, what do you hold?...
by jason
Thu Sep 15, 2022 11:01 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
Replies: 117
Views: 33582

Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

If it's any consolation: https://portfolioslab.com/lazy-portfolios Makes me feel better until I look at the 10 year returns, where the PP is third to last :( There should be no surprise there if you did your homework before investing. Things "may" equalize if the bear stock market is bad enough but...
by jason
Thu Sep 15, 2022 10:41 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold will rise when Fed stops raising interest rates?
Replies: 54
Views: 18423

Re: Gold will rise when Fed stops raising interest rates?

fucking idiots Gave me a laugh at least. What is your recommended portfolio allocation? No Gold or LTT’s. I can’t think of a worse portfolio to hold than this one for the last decade plus. All a bunch of garbage. It has proven its worthlessness time after time. If no gold or LTTs, what do you hold?...
by jason
Thu Sep 15, 2022 10:23 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold will rise when Fed stops raising interest rates?
Replies: 54
Views: 18423

Re: Gold will rise when Fed stops raising interest rates?

fucking idiots Gave me a laugh at least. What is your recommended portfolio allocation? No Gold or LTT’s. I can’t think of a worse portfolio to hold than this one for the last decade plus. All a bunch of garbage. It has proven its worthlessness time after time. If no gold or LTTs, what do you hold?...
by jason
Thu Sep 15, 2022 9:51 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
Replies: 117
Views: 33582

Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

Kevin K. wrote:
Thu Sep 15, 2022 9:38 am
If it's any consolation:

https://portfolioslab.com/lazy-portfolios
Makes me feel better until I look at the 10 year returns, where the PP is third to last :(
by jason
Thu Sep 15, 2022 9:33 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold will rise when Fed stops raising interest rates?
Replies: 54
Views: 18423

Re: Gold will rise when Fed stops raising interest rates?

But if not, HB had some insight which applied to this. Namely that you can't count on markets to repeat the reactions of past history, because people adapt. The gold market has changed so much over the past two decades that I don't think you can predict how it will behave. Agreed 100 percent. How h...
by jason
Wed Sep 14, 2022 3:04 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold will rise when Fed stops raising interest rates?
Replies: 54
Views: 18423

Re: Gold will rise when Fed stops raising interest rates?

Gold is completely useless. Unexpected inflation tops 8% and we are down 7% + inflation over the course of a year. I really do pity those still invested in the PP. What more do you need to see before you dump it? Well, first of all, as someone else recently posted, the dollar has gained 14% YTD and...
by jason
Wed Sep 14, 2022 1:26 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold will rise when Fed stops raising interest rates?
Replies: 54
Views: 18423

Re: Gold will rise when Fed stops raising interest rates?

But if not, HB had some insight which applied to this. Namely that you can't count on markets to repeat the reactions of past history, because people adapt. The gold market has changed so much over the past two decades that I don't think you can predict how it will behave. Agreed 100 percent. How h...
by jason
Wed Sep 14, 2022 12:42 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold will rise when Fed stops raising interest rates?
Replies: 54
Views: 18423

Re: Gold will rise when Fed stops raising interest rates?

I Shrugged wrote:
Wed Sep 14, 2022 12:30 pm
I gave up trying to figure it out. The whole market tries to figure it out, and that gives us the price. That sounds more negative than I mean it to be. :)
Unless the price is rigged as GATA claims.
by jason
Wed Sep 14, 2022 11:16 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold will rise when Fed stops raising interest rates?
Replies: 54
Views: 18423

Re: Gold will rise when Fed stops raising interest rates?

Doesn't the strength of the US dollar factor into all of this? I recently read that it's up 14% in 2022 and is at its highest level in 20 years compared to other currencies. Yes, strong dollar was mentioned as well, but experts were saying that gold has to compete with currency so as long as bond y...
by jason
Wed Sep 14, 2022 10:57 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold will rise when Fed stops raising interest rates?
Replies: 54
Views: 18423

Gold will rise when Fed stops raising interest rates?

So I was doing some research today on why gold hasn't been going up lately. The recurring theme I saw was that experts think that in an environment where there is high inflation and interest rates are steadily rising and are expected to rise further, gold does not do well. But after the Fed stops ra...
by jason
Fri Sep 09, 2022 10:52 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Best passive real estate investments?
Replies: 4
Views: 1665

Best passive real estate investments?

I'm looking to do passive investment in real estate that involves lower-end residential housing/apartment buildings. I'm looking for "lower-end" because it's supposedly more recession-proof than higher-end housing. What are the historical yields (total return and dividends/cash flow) for this type o...
by jason
Fri Sep 09, 2022 10:44 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
Replies: 117
Views: 33582

Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

Thanks! Let's hope this ends up being a short one (bounces back soon). When is gold going to come to the rescue?!?
by jason
Wed Sep 07, 2022 1:50 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
Replies: 117
Views: 33582

Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

Thanks! I can see that 2008 was a little bit worse. There were also some bad draw-downs in the early 80s. Gives me hope!
by jason
Wed Sep 07, 2022 10:57 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
Replies: 117
Views: 33582

Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

The PP is definitely having its worst draw-down since year 2008. But so is the 60/40 Boglehead portfolio. And so is just about every other portfolio. There's nowhere to hide. This current era reminds me of the old saying "May you live in interesting times". ;) How much was the draw-down in 2008? Is...
by jason
Wed Sep 07, 2022 9:53 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Private real estate funds
Replies: 8
Views: 1693

Re: Private real estate funds

I have multiple friends and relatives who have invested in private real estate funds (totally passive investment). The way it works, the fund gathers many millions (hundreds of millions, typically) of dollars, buys a plot of land, builds an apartment complex, fills it with tenants, then they sell t...
by jason
Wed Sep 07, 2022 8:49 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
Replies: 117
Views: 33582

Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

Jason, if you don't mind me asking, what was your portfolio withdrawal rate expected to be when you retired? 4% withdrawal rate. And that was tight - no real wiggle room. My PP is down 15%. It was a bit heavy on stocks and bonds and light on cash - I was overdue to rebalance. If I had rebalanced at...
by jason
Wed Sep 07, 2022 8:04 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
Replies: 117
Views: 33582

Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

I think the one bright spot has been real estate. Low-end residential real estate such as apartment buildings tend to be somewhat recession-proof. At this point I’m regretting having not gotten into that. There are many passive investing options for this.
by jason
Tue Sep 06, 2022 2:50 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Private real estate funds
Replies: 8
Views: 1693

Private real estate funds

I have multiple friends and relatives who have invested in private real estate funds (totally passive investment). The way it works, the fund gathers many millions (hundreds of millions, typically) of dollars, buys a plot of land, builds an apartment complex, fills it with tenants, then they sell th...
by jason
Tue Sep 06, 2022 2:12 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
Replies: 117
Views: 33582

PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

I was just wondering if the performance of the PP year-to-date is the worst it has ever performed, or has it had a period(s) in the past where it actually performed worse? I've been doing the PP for 9 years and my returns are anemic. My CAGR is around 5%. Because I am retired and living off of my in...
by jason
Mon May 23, 2022 10:18 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Backtesting the PP all the way to 1971?
Replies: 13
Views: 3183

Re: Backtesting the PP all the way to 1971?

I used to use peaktotrough.com all the time for backtesting. Since that website shut down quite a while ago, I haven't been able to find a good replacement. Portfoliovisualizer and other websites I have found do not go all the way back to the Nixon shock, around August 15, 1971, the date that the g...
by jason
Fri May 20, 2022 10:54 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Backtesting the PP all the way to 1971?
Replies: 13
Views: 3183

Re: Backtesting the PP all the way to 1971?

While it uses simple annual rebalancing rather than bands, Portfolio Charts has the data coverage you're looking for (back to 1970). Here's the dedicated Permanent Portfolio page: https://portfoliocharts.com/portfolio/permanent-portfolio/ And here's a tool where you can adjust the percentages of th...