Search found 561 matches
- Sat Mar 25, 2023 8:11 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Always on sale!
- Replies: 2
- Views: 1514
Re: Always on sale!
sometimes...but they are often related too.
- Sat Mar 25, 2023 5:18 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Always on sale!
- Replies: 2
- Views: 1514
Always on sale!
I just realized that there is a rarely mentioned behavioral benefit to the Risk Parity approach – even during accumulation. "being diversified means you’re always losing" = something is ALWAYS on sale! I grok the William Bernstein sentiment “get on your hands and knees and pray for a marke...
- Sat Mar 25, 2023 7:59 am
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Re: I'M OUT!
- Replies: 22
- Views: 4543
Re: I'M OUT!
Thanks! I'm not ready to explore an active portfolio management strategy, but it's intriguing! I've bookmarked this thread for future study!
- Fri Mar 24, 2023 8:36 pm
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Re: I'M OUT!
- Replies: 22
- Views: 4543
Re: I'M OUT!
40% HBPP and 60% Antonacci GEM... CAGR 12%, MaxDD -18% (worse than HBPP but much more return... you get compensated for it). Sharpe ratio 1.46. Ulcer Index 2.12. This is a very simple model to run. You find a number of sites giving away the Antonacci signals for free. HBPP CAGR ulcer index 1.29. Yo...
- Fri Mar 24, 2023 3:15 pm
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Re: I'M OUT!
- Replies: 22
- Views: 4543
Re: I'M OUT!
From your other thread, I don't see how "Short-term treasuries, real estate with timber value, maybe a few old fashioned dividend-paying stocks with certificates" will save you in a national collapse. If you're really worried about the state of our nation then do as HB advises. Store your ...
- Fri Mar 24, 2023 1:50 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: International PP / theory
- Replies: 11
- Views: 3277
- Fri Mar 24, 2023 8:34 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: I'M OUT!
- Replies: 64
- Views: 73950
Re: I'M OUT!
joypog, do you have a good source for your claim of European debt levels? Every source that I find online seems to indicate that on average the Eurozone has lower debt to GDP ratios than the US. Not at all saying that the Euro is going to take over. My limited travels to Europe in recent years (Ita...
- Thu Mar 23, 2023 2:54 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: I'M OUT!
- Replies: 64
- Views: 73950
Re: I'M OUT!
The US has declined in some ways, but to me it still looks like the best horse in the glue factory. It will survive and, perhaps after stumbling for a bit, it will find its footing and rise again. I might not be as optimistic about rising again, but frankly I see no other option. Where else would o...
- Sat Mar 11, 2023 3:44 pm
- Forum: Politics
- Topic: Trump spurred ‘existential crisis’ at Fox News, lawsuit exhibits show
- Replies: 2
- Views: 2045
Re: Trump spurred ‘existential crisis’ at Fox News, lawsuit exhibits show
It amazes me that Tucker is still being watched in spite of these revelations.
- Tue Mar 07, 2023 8:32 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: This is the best time in 45 years to invest in the Permanent Portfolio
- Replies: 33
- Views: 14162
- Mon Mar 06, 2023 3:06 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
- Replies: 341
- Views: 167370
- Sun Mar 05, 2023 6:20 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Tim Price discussing the HBPP in the current economy
- Replies: 12
- Views: 3280
Re: Tim Price discussing the HBPP in the current economy
One big take away for me is that commodity trend following (CTA) is very interesting. One CTA I follow is up 30 percent in the past 12 months. Which I think is a general direction of a lot of the CTA’s. Basically it seems like they are zigging when a lot of stuff is zagging. Yeah CTA's are showing ...
- Sun Mar 05, 2023 6:07 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
- Replies: 341
- Views: 167370
Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
I bought 30 years at 4 and then again at 3.87. I am using a new rule for myself. It’s called go halfsies. If I’m scared to buy or sell I do around half. That gets me moving. Having re-read Fail Safe Investing this afternoon, I think this is a great addendum to his Rule #17 "When in Doubt, Err ...
- Sun Mar 05, 2023 6:00 pm
- Forum: Stocks
- Topic: Stock Picking in the PP
- Replies: 33
- Views: 20291
Re: Stock Picking in the PP
That's my question, though, is whether it fits in with the HBPP mentality. He seems to be saying to pick stocks with high risk/reward for better rebalancing opportunities. Would HB say to put all your stock allocation into SCV rather than splitting half and half between SCV and LCG? Or is there som...
- Sun Mar 05, 2023 5:51 pm
- Forum: Stocks
- Topic: SCV in the GB
- Replies: 8
- Views: 5340
Re: SCV in the GB
I hang out on the rational reminder forum so...not surprisingly I use a mix of AVUV (also recommended by Paul Merriman's group) and DFSV in our different accounts. I use more AVUV than DFSV because the ER is lower, but I doubt you could go wrong. If I was being adventurous I might check out VIOV for...
- Sat Mar 04, 2023 6:37 pm
- Forum: Stocks
- Topic: Stock Picking in the PP
- Replies: 33
- Views: 20291
Re: Stock Picking in the PP
That's my question, though, is whether it fits in with the HBPP mentality. He seems to be saying to pick stocks with high risk/reward for better rebalancing opportunities. Would HB say to put all your stock allocation into SCV rather than splitting half and half between SCV and LCG? Or is there som...
- Sat Mar 04, 2023 9:21 am
- Forum: Stocks
- Topic: Stock Picking in the PP
- Replies: 33
- Views: 20291
Re: Stock Picking in the PP
I'm a big fan of the LCG + SCV split. Paul Merriman's quilt charts show it as being the most consistent performer among various strategies - never the best, but never the worst. Which fits perfectly in line the HBPP mentality. https://paulmerriman.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/Sound-Investing-Portf...
- Sat Mar 04, 2023 9:19 am
- Forum: Bonds
- Topic: When is it time to load up on bonds.
- Replies: 40
- Views: 39875
Re: When is it time to load up on bonds.
I believe timing the interest rates market is as much a fool's game as picking individual stocks. So I've been just following my rules and buying stuff up. I will admit that with another 15+ years on my career horizon, buying bonds is a lot easier right now just cause its "cheaper" relativ...
- Thu Mar 02, 2023 2:27 pm
- Forum: Stocks
- Topic: When will indexing blow up?
- Replies: 30
- Views: 45395
Re: When will indexing blow up?
Maudlin has been bearish for the past decade. I should know, it was his newsletter that froze me in place during one of the biggest bull runs in the stock market ever. I mean, they'll be right...eventually. It wasn't until I found the HBPP that I felt comfortable putting money back into the market t...
- Wed Mar 01, 2023 7:43 pm
- Forum: Other Discussions
- Topic: Daily "Check In" Thread For Us
- Replies: 2294
- Views: 1357886
Re: Daily "Check In" Thread For Us
every american president, but they're all cool and they all sport a mullet
https://twitter.com/hamcarless/status/1 ... 24483?s=20
https://twitter.com/hamcarless/status/1 ... 24483?s=20
- Sun Feb 19, 2023 6:07 pm
- Forum: Politics
- Topic: Ohio Disaster
- Replies: 51
- Views: 8572
Re: Ohio Disaster
> I truly believe that there are participants on this forum whose principal purpose is to break the forum down If that's a consequence of protecting their internal leftist narrative, so be it. Closing schools, muzzling kids. Had to be done, leaders said so. Everyone here believes they have the mora...
- Sun Feb 19, 2023 11:02 am
- Forum: Politics
- Topic: Ohio Disaster
- Replies: 51
- Views: 8572
Re: Ohio Disaster
Vinny offered a meme and a quoted article. Which is more than what you initially offered with a bare link to a Tucker video. Once again, the video posted by Vinny had absolutely nothing to do with the subject at hand. It involved a generic trashing of Tucker Carlson's "brand." I should no...
- Sun Feb 19, 2023 9:53 am
- Forum: Politics
- Topic: Ohio Disaster
- Replies: 51
- Views: 8572
Re: Ohio Disaster
Vinny offered a meme and a quoted article. Which is more than what you initially offered with a bare link to a Tucker video. You're asking Vinny to do more than what you did yourself concerning that video. And if you truly wanted to discuss the matter, why did you completely ignore the very first co...
- Sun Feb 19, 2023 9:13 am
- Forum: Politics
- Topic: Ohio Disaster
- Replies: 51
- Views: 8572
Re: Ohio Disaster
Vinny watched the video enough to realize it was the typical drivel from Tucker Carlson and dismissed it out of hand. A viewer doesn't owe an established media personality a fresh slate every time a new video is posted. I don't have to presume that Trump isn't lying or Biden isn't having a senior mo...