Search found 401 matches

by Pkg Man
Tue Jun 21, 2011 8:41 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Academic and Fed Research Articles
Replies: 5
Views: 3540

Re: Academic and Fed Research Articles

Ran across this article posted by an old professor friend on FB.  It briefly reviews the differences between the Chicago and Austrian Schools. http://mises.org/daily/5390/The-Chicago-School-versus-the-Austrian-School#.TgAQmxO14_4;twitter I can see merit in the Austrian approach, but as I was "raised...
by Pkg Man
Sat Jun 18, 2011 10:42 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Heresy : Timed PP
Replies: 6
Views: 4107

Re: Heresy : Timed PP

MediumTex wrote: Clive,

That is really an outstanding video.

Among other possible uses for the video, it would make a great drinking game to watch the video and drink every time the narrator said "duck and cover."

LMAO!
That would make a great drinking game, just like the old Bob Newhart show!
by Pkg Man
Fri Jun 17, 2011 5:35 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: How your PPs looks like?
Replies: 20
Views: 11932

Re: How your PPs looks like?

Gold: IAU - 12.5% & Inflation Protected Treasuries (TIP) - 12.5% Stock: Emerging Market (VWO) - 12.5%; Small Cap Value (VBR) - 12.5% Cash: Short Term Treasury (SHY) - 25% Bond: Long Term Treasury (TLT) - 25% If you haven't already, you might want to read up a bit on using TIPS for part of the gold ...
by Pkg Man
Fri Jun 17, 2011 5:24 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: US Is in Even Worse Shape Financially Than Greece: Gross
Replies: 60
Views: 21993

Re: US Is in Even Worse Shape Financially Than Greece: Gross

I think this conversation highlights perfectly how hard it is to actually predict bubbles. When I hear people justifying ideas like 1% interest on a 30 year bond it sounds strikingly similar to the justifications I was hearing back in 2005 of how housing prices were still a bargain at those insane ...
by Pkg Man
Thu Jun 16, 2011 9:44 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: New investor question
Replies: 4
Views: 3334

Re: New investor question

The premium is higher for Eagles due to supply and demand issues.  More Americans apparently desire the Eagles, either due to the look or that they are more familiar with them since they are produced by the US mint.   When you sell a coin you will get most of that premium back, so it doesn't matter ...
by Pkg Man
Thu Jun 16, 2011 8:56 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP protection against financial repression
Replies: 30
Views: 15095

Re: PP protection against financial repression

Basically the nominal rate of interest is made of the real rate and the expected rate of inflation.  So while bond holders can get fooled, rates could never stay below the inflation rate in perpetuity. Not in perpetuity but for a while. Govts can screw with the natural market price of things for a ...
by Pkg Man
Thu Jun 16, 2011 8:34 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP protection against financial repression
Replies: 30
Views: 15095

Re: PP protection against financial repression

doodle the following link explains a bit about real and nominal interest rates that might be useful. http://www.econlib.org/library/Enc/InterestRates.html Basically the nominal rate of interest is made of the real rate and the expected rate of inflation.  So while bond holders can get fooled, rates ...
by Pkg Man
Thu Jun 16, 2011 8:26 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: US Is in Even Worse Shape Financially Than Greece: Gross
Replies: 60
Views: 21993

Re: US Is in Even Worse Shape Financially Than Greece: Gross

It's not that I disagree with gold's price going up, it's just difficult for me to quantify where gold should be based on inflation, interest, solvency of central banks, etc. I tend to see the bond markets (despite the complete eff up on mortgage risk) as the most efficient.  Fixed rates of return ...
by Pkg Man
Thu Jun 16, 2011 8:22 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The Miners
Replies: 120
Views: 43613

Re: The Miners

I buy some stocks of BVN (Compania de Minas Buenaventura), a peruvian companie that loss above 12% because Ollanta Humala won the presidential election. But I think there will be no real changes in economic policy in Peru. So I hope can be recovered in the short-term. I used to own it, and made qui...
by Pkg Man
Thu Jun 16, 2011 8:15 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP protection against financial repression
Replies: 30
Views: 15095

Re: PP protection against financial repression

The yield on treasuries couldn't stay lower than inflation for very long.  The situation you describe where LTT rates are that low is likely to be deflationary, so inflation would be negative or at least very low. Because no one would hold 30 year bonds at a rate below inflation - at least for very ...
by Pkg Man
Thu Jun 16, 2011 8:09 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Why not individual equities?
Replies: 21
Views: 11655

Re: Why not individual equities?

I stand corrected...it's 30 stocks

http://www.jstor.org/pss/2330969
by Pkg Man
Wed Jun 15, 2011 6:07 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Sense of Uneasiness
Replies: 28
Views: 14075

Re: Sense of Uneasiness

I think I previously calculated 15%.  I suppose it all depends on exactly which assets you are using to build the PP and maybe when you started it.  I think I used VTI, TLT, GDL, and SHY to come up the the 15% max intra-year drawdown.
by Pkg Man
Tue Jun 14, 2011 9:56 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Why not individual equities?
Replies: 21
Views: 11655

Re: Why not individual equities?

Harry Brown advocated little seperation between one and one's assets.  Most here seem to agree that holding LTT's directly is the way to go for both cost and security (as well as duration control).  Cash is easy, and though gold gives many people trouble it really is easy to obtain and store leavin...
by Pkg Man
Mon Jun 13, 2011 6:41 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: When Will QE3 Be Announced?
Replies: 128
Views: 37130

Re: When Will QE3 Be Announced?

Saw this in the Wall Street Journal economic survey: QE3? Do you think another round of quantitative easing by the Fed will be needed before the end of the year? No  94% Yes  6% Selection of comments: Yes, but it won't be resumed until Q1:2012. Not unless recovery truly falters AND inflation/inflati...
by Pkg Man
Mon Jun 13, 2011 6:25 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Retiring a 60/40 portfolio
Replies: 18
Views: 10209

Re: Retiring a 60/40 portfolio

gizmo_rat wrote: Thanks guys, took it outside and shot it today. I suspect my ex adviser shed a tear, but I didnt.
Good for you.  While I have no idea what will happen in the markets, I think you made a good decision to just rid yourself of it all at once.
by Pkg Man
Sun Jun 12, 2011 8:43 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP REBALANCING
Replies: 11
Views: 4974

Re: PP REBALANCING

IMHO the best solution here is not to tinker with the PP but rather hold some foreign investments -- stocks, bonds, and currency -- in a VP.
by Pkg Man
Sun Jun 12, 2011 8:40 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Discussion of Energy-Related Issues
Replies: 53
Views: 18699

Re: Discussion of Energy-Related Issues

If China doesn't slow down it's rate of growth, then it sounds like the straw may be way too small to deal with future demand. If so, the quote from Bernanke suggests that gasoline may continue to be the major source of inflation in the global economy. $3.89 gasoline may seem quaint a few years fro...
by Pkg Man
Sun Jun 12, 2011 8:38 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Mortgage Paydown?? How About VP LTT's
Replies: 31
Views: 15406

Re: Mortgage Paydown?? How About VP LTT's

We talked about this briefly on another thread, and there are many opinions on this issue.  Mine is that it is better to get a short to intermediate term mortgage, such as a 15 or 20 year, and then not worry about paying down on it at that point.  If that is too much of a squeeze and only a 30 year ...
by Pkg Man
Sat Jun 11, 2011 2:59 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Dumping US Bonds...
Replies: 23
Views: 12003

Re: Dumping US Bonds...

I agree with Clive that the Euro will survive, but at the expense of individual and national freedoms. I have a great deal of suspicion in the supra-national governmental structure they are creating.
by Pkg Man
Thu Jun 09, 2011 8:39 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Buying and/or Holding Stocks In 2008
Replies: 42
Views: 17941

Re: Buying and/or Holding Stocks In 2008

One bit of irony is that my peers with negative net worths had less anxiety in that time than I did.  So, people with no investments felt more financially secure than someone with investments.  That's backwards!  The whole point of investing is to feel more financially secure, especially during sca...
by Pkg Man
Thu Jun 09, 2011 8:26 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold Holdings During Lagging Interest Rates
Replies: 28
Views: 13200

Re: Gold Holdings During Lagging Interest Rates

I think Clive once posted a chart showing all the rebalancings in the last 40 years, and there were surprisingly few, if I recall correctly.  Would like to see that again. http://www.jfholdings.pwp.blueyonder.co.uk/pp_40_band_rebalance_to_25.gif Seems odd to me that LT never hit a rebalance point. ...
by Pkg Man
Mon Jun 06, 2011 6:12 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Nikkei - 27 Years, 0% Return
Replies: 37
Views: 18854

Re: Nikkei - 27 Years, 0% Return

I can't think of any other explanation for Clive having Kenny Rogers lyrics at top of mind than the explanation above. As for me, growing up in Texas we spent a solid week in public school studying Kenny Rogers, and I had a clock radio that played "Lucille" instead of a buzzer to wake you up. LINK ...
by Pkg Man
Mon Jun 06, 2011 6:07 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: rebalancing using the money market/cash allocation
Replies: 28
Views: 9857

Re: rebalancing using the money market/cash allocation

I think the thing that hasn't clicked is the rebalancing. I hadn;t realised that the entire portfolio was rebalanced whenever any 1 of the assets reached  aband. I had just assumed it was each asset in it's own band. Any asset that touches 15% or 35% triggers a rebalancing of the whole thing. As it...
by Pkg Man
Mon Jun 06, 2011 6:00 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Refinancing Your Mortgage
Replies: 11
Views: 3661

Re: Refinancing Your Mortgage

As rates lower, and moreso as they approach 4%, the ROI on refinancing for me is looking more and more promising.  Is there any advice people have for a guy going through a refinance?  I'm planning on doing a 30-year fixed, but the usual spread (.5% between 15 and 30 year) is now more lik .8%, so I...
by Pkg Man
Mon Jun 06, 2011 5:48 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Academic and Fed Research Articles
Replies: 5
Views: 3540

Re: Academic and Fed Research Articles

I read this today and thought others may be interested in seeing it.  It is a presentation by Robert Lucas, a well known macroeconomist, where he talks about the Great Depression and the Great Recession. http://www.econ.washington.edu/news/millimansl.pdf It's an easy read, all powerpoint slides, but...