Search found 401 matches
- Tue Jun 21, 2011 8:41 pm
- Forum: Other Discussions
- Topic: Academic and Fed Research Articles
- Replies: 5
- Views: 3540
Re: Academic and Fed Research Articles
Ran across this article posted by an old professor friend on FB. It briefly reviews the differences between the Chicago and Austrian Schools. http://mises.org/daily/5390/The-Chicago-School-versus-the-Austrian-School#.TgAQmxO14_4;twitter I can see merit in the Austrian approach, but as I was "raised...
- Sat Jun 18, 2011 10:42 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Heresy : Timed PP
- Replies: 6
- Views: 4107
Re: Heresy : Timed PP
LMAO!MediumTex wrote: Clive,
That is really an outstanding video.
Among other possible uses for the video, it would make a great drinking game to watch the video and drink every time the narrator said "duck and cover."
That would make a great drinking game, just like the old Bob Newhart show!
- Fri Jun 17, 2011 5:35 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: How your PPs looks like?
- Replies: 20
- Views: 11932
Re: How your PPs looks like?
Gold: IAU - 12.5% & Inflation Protected Treasuries (TIP) - 12.5% Stock: Emerging Market (VWO) - 12.5%; Small Cap Value (VBR) - 12.5% Cash: Short Term Treasury (SHY) - 25% Bond: Long Term Treasury (TLT) - 25% If you haven't already, you might want to read up a bit on using TIPS for part of the gold ...
- Fri Jun 17, 2011 5:24 pm
- Forum: Bonds
- Topic: US Is in Even Worse Shape Financially Than Greece: Gross
- Replies: 60
- Views: 21993
Re: US Is in Even Worse Shape Financially Than Greece: Gross
I think this conversation highlights perfectly how hard it is to actually predict bubbles. When I hear people justifying ideas like 1% interest on a 30 year bond it sounds strikingly similar to the justifications I was hearing back in 2005 of how housing prices were still a bargain at those insane ...
- Thu Jun 16, 2011 9:44 pm
- Forum: Gold
- Topic: New investor question
- Replies: 4
- Views: 3334
Re: New investor question
The premium is higher for Eagles due to supply and demand issues. More Americans apparently desire the Eagles, either due to the look or that they are more familiar with them since they are produced by the US mint. When you sell a coin you will get most of that premium back, so it doesn't matter ...
- Thu Jun 16, 2011 8:56 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: PP protection against financial repression
- Replies: 30
- Views: 15095
Re: PP protection against financial repression
Basically the nominal rate of interest is made of the real rate and the expected rate of inflation. So while bond holders can get fooled, rates could never stay below the inflation rate in perpetuity. Not in perpetuity but for a while. Govts can screw with the natural market price of things for a ...
- Thu Jun 16, 2011 8:34 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: PP protection against financial repression
- Replies: 30
- Views: 15095
Re: PP protection against financial repression
doodle the following link explains a bit about real and nominal interest rates that might be useful. http://www.econlib.org/library/Enc/InterestRates.html Basically the nominal rate of interest is made of the real rate and the expected rate of inflation. So while bond holders can get fooled, rates ...
- Thu Jun 16, 2011 8:26 pm
- Forum: Bonds
- Topic: US Is in Even Worse Shape Financially Than Greece: Gross
- Replies: 60
- Views: 21993
Re: US Is in Even Worse Shape Financially Than Greece: Gross
It's not that I disagree with gold's price going up, it's just difficult for me to quantify where gold should be based on inflation, interest, solvency of central banks, etc. I tend to see the bond markets (despite the complete eff up on mortgage risk) as the most efficient. Fixed rates of return ...
- Thu Jun 16, 2011 8:22 pm
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: The Miners
- Replies: 120
- Views: 43613
Re: The Miners
I buy some stocks of BVN (Compania de Minas Buenaventura), a peruvian companie that loss above 12% because Ollanta Humala won the presidential election. But I think there will be no real changes in economic policy in Peru. So I hope can be recovered in the short-term. I used to own it, and made qui...
- Thu Jun 16, 2011 8:15 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: PP protection against financial repression
- Replies: 30
- Views: 15095
Re: PP protection against financial repression
The yield on treasuries couldn't stay lower than inflation for very long. The situation you describe where LTT rates are that low is likely to be deflationary, so inflation would be negative or at least very low. Because no one would hold 30 year bonds at a rate below inflation - at least for very ...
- Thu Jun 16, 2011 8:09 pm
- Forum: Stocks
- Topic: Why not individual equities?
- Replies: 21
- Views: 11655
- Wed Jun 15, 2011 6:07 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Sense of Uneasiness
- Replies: 28
- Views: 14075
Re: Sense of Uneasiness
I think I previously calculated 15%. I suppose it all depends on exactly which assets you are using to build the PP and maybe when you started it. I think I used VTI, TLT, GDL, and SHY to come up the the 15% max intra-year drawdown.
- Tue Jun 14, 2011 9:56 pm
- Forum: Stocks
- Topic: Why not individual equities?
- Replies: 21
- Views: 11655
Re: Why not individual equities?
Harry Brown advocated little seperation between one and one's assets. Most here seem to agree that holding LTT's directly is the way to go for both cost and security (as well as duration control). Cash is easy, and though gold gives many people trouble it really is easy to obtain and store leavin...
- Mon Jun 13, 2011 6:41 pm
- Forum: Other Discussions
- Topic: When Will QE3 Be Announced?
- Replies: 128
- Views: 37130
Re: When Will QE3 Be Announced?
Saw this in the Wall Street Journal economic survey: QE3? Do you think another round of quantitative easing by the Fed will be needed before the end of the year? No 94% Yes 6% Selection of comments: Yes, but it won't be resumed until Q1:2012. Not unless recovery truly falters AND inflation/inflati...
- Mon Jun 13, 2011 6:25 pm
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Retiring a 60/40 portfolio
- Replies: 18
- Views: 10209
Re: Retiring a 60/40 portfolio
Good for you. While I have no idea what will happen in the markets, I think you made a good decision to just rid yourself of it all at once.gizmo_rat wrote: Thanks guys, took it outside and shot it today. I suspect my ex adviser shed a tear, but I didnt.
- Sun Jun 12, 2011 8:43 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: PP REBALANCING
- Replies: 11
- Views: 4974
Re: PP REBALANCING
IMHO the best solution here is not to tinker with the PP but rather hold some foreign investments -- stocks, bonds, and currency -- in a VP.
- Sun Jun 12, 2011 8:40 pm
- Forum: Other Discussions
- Topic: Discussion of Energy-Related Issues
- Replies: 53
- Views: 18699
Re: Discussion of Energy-Related Issues
If China doesn't slow down it's rate of growth, then it sounds like the straw may be way too small to deal with future demand. If so, the quote from Bernanke suggests that gasoline may continue to be the major source of inflation in the global economy. $3.89 gasoline may seem quaint a few years fro...
- Sun Jun 12, 2011 8:38 pm
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Mortgage Paydown?? How About VP LTT's
- Replies: 31
- Views: 15406
Re: Mortgage Paydown?? How About VP LTT's
We talked about this briefly on another thread, and there are many opinions on this issue. Mine is that it is better to get a short to intermediate term mortgage, such as a 15 or 20 year, and then not worry about paying down on it at that point. If that is too much of a squeeze and only a 30 year ...
- Sat Jun 11, 2011 2:59 pm
- Forum: Bonds
- Topic: Dumping US Bonds...
- Replies: 23
- Views: 12003
Re: Dumping US Bonds...
I agree with Clive that the Euro will survive, but at the expense of individual and national freedoms. I have a great deal of suspicion in the supra-national governmental structure they are creating.
- Thu Jun 09, 2011 8:39 pm
- Forum: Stocks
- Topic: Buying and/or Holding Stocks In 2008
- Replies: 42
- Views: 17941
Re: Buying and/or Holding Stocks In 2008
One bit of irony is that my peers with negative net worths had less anxiety in that time than I did. So, people with no investments felt more financially secure than someone with investments. That's backwards! The whole point of investing is to feel more financially secure, especially during sca...
- Thu Jun 09, 2011 8:26 pm
- Forum: Gold
- Topic: Gold Holdings During Lagging Interest Rates
- Replies: 28
- Views: 13200
Re: Gold Holdings During Lagging Interest Rates
I think Clive once posted a chart showing all the rebalancings in the last 40 years, and there were surprisingly few, if I recall correctly. Would like to see that again. http://www.jfholdings.pwp.blueyonder.co.uk/pp_40_band_rebalance_to_25.gif Seems odd to me that LT never hit a rebalance point. ...
- Mon Jun 06, 2011 6:12 pm
- Forum: Stocks
- Topic: Nikkei - 27 Years, 0% Return
- Replies: 37
- Views: 18854
Re: Nikkei - 27 Years, 0% Return
I can't think of any other explanation for Clive having Kenny Rogers lyrics at top of mind than the explanation above. As for me, growing up in Texas we spent a solid week in public school studying Kenny Rogers, and I had a clock radio that played "Lucille" instead of a buzzer to wake you up. LINK ...
- Mon Jun 06, 2011 6:07 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: rebalancing using the money market/cash allocation
- Replies: 28
- Views: 9857
Re: rebalancing using the money market/cash allocation
I think the thing that hasn't clicked is the rebalancing. I hadn;t realised that the entire portfolio was rebalanced whenever any 1 of the assets reached aband. I had just assumed it was each asset in it's own band. Any asset that touches 15% or 35% triggers a rebalancing of the whole thing. As it...
- Mon Jun 06, 2011 6:00 pm
- Forum: Other Discussions
- Topic: Refinancing Your Mortgage
- Replies: 11
- Views: 3661
Re: Refinancing Your Mortgage
As rates lower, and moreso as they approach 4%, the ROI on refinancing for me is looking more and more promising. Is there any advice people have for a guy going through a refinance? I'm planning on doing a 30-year fixed, but the usual spread (.5% between 15 and 30 year) is now more lik .8%, so I...
- Mon Jun 06, 2011 5:48 pm
- Forum: Other Discussions
- Topic: Academic and Fed Research Articles
- Replies: 5
- Views: 3540
Re: Academic and Fed Research Articles
I read this today and thought others may be interested in seeing it. It is a presentation by Robert Lucas, a well known macroeconomist, where he talks about the Great Depression and the Great Recession. http://www.econ.washington.edu/news/millimansl.pdf It's an easy read, all powerpoint slides, but...