I will continue to stick by my prediction that it won't happen.  Of course after today's abysmal GDP report, my prediction looks less certain, although I still think that the Fed will sit this one out.

But feel free to remind me how lousy my predictive abilities are if I'm proven wrong.

I admit I am very surprised to see the House passing TWO bills that everyone knew/knows were DOA. I'm surprised so much time would be wasted just posturing in this way. The new House Republicans also scare me a little.  Some of them seem to think that cutting off your nose to spite your face makes ...

I looked at the Gabelli fund too, but I thought the expense ratio was higher than what was quoted earlier (.08%).  Maybe that is a temporary expense ratio? At any rate I decided to just keep a combination of online savings, I and EE bonds, T-bills, and SHY.  For the most simple route I'd just do SHY...

Yes, but in the VP only.

I think part of the confusion (to me at least) is that you can't have deflation without a recession, while inflation may or may not accompany a recession. I know many will disagree with this, but if I had to choose one, I'd say we are in prosperity.  I realize it doesn't seem like it, but GDP is in ...

Depends on how much you have in the PP. Like MT, I think some in an ETF is desirable. But most should be the real deal.

I understand the point you and jmourik are making, but I don't necessarily think that anyone knew what was going to happen.  I was writing about the potential housing market "bubble" back in 2006, and there were a lot of people who had valid reasons for dismissing any concern. I would say...

A better analogy is the following.  Let's assume you had bought a Toyota from a neighbor, and your neighbor agreed to seller financing.   After you purchase the car the sticky pedal issue hits the news and your Camry loses 10% of it's value overnight.  Would you now tell the neighbor to come take h...

For unrepayable debts I would agree, but I do have a problem with someone who takes a 10% haircut on a new home and then decides they will just leave the keys in the mailbox and walkaway.  There was never any promise made that housing always goes up in price, even if it was conventional wisdom, and...

Morally, I think walking away from your home is not only justified.....it should be encouraged. I don't think there is a moral dimension to the question of whether or not an unrepayable debt should nevertheless be paid on until it completely bankrupts you. I view this sort of thing as more a matter...

I think that Volcker raising rates in the face of a very weak economy is something we are unlikely to see again. People just don't do things like that anymore. If you look back at the totality of circumstances Volcker was operating within, I'm not even sure how much effect what he did actually had ...

is it ok to discuss politics again? IMHO money and politics wouldn't be an issue at all if the government had never strayed so far from its original design.  The recent experiments with campaign finance limits (McCain-Feingold) were in my opinion nothing more than a way to silence free speech, so I ...

Ran across this article posted by an old professor friend on FB.  It briefly reviews the differences between the Chicago and Austrian Schools. http://mises.org/daily/5390/The-Chicago-School-versus-the-Austrian-School#.TgAQmxO14_4;twitter I can see merit in the Austrian approach, but as I was "r...

MediumTex wrote: Clive,

That is really an outstanding video.

Among other possible uses for the video, it would make a great drinking game to watch the video and drink every time the narrator said "duck and cover."

LMAO!
That would make a great drinking game, just like the old Bob Newhart show!

Gold: IAU - 12.5% & Inflation Protected Treasuries (TIP) - 12.5% Stock: Emerging Market (VWO) - 12.5%; Small Cap Value (VBR) - 12.5% Cash: Short Term Treasury (SHY) - 25% Bond: Long Term Treasury (TLT) - 25% If you haven't already, you might want to read up a bit on using TIPS for part of the g...

I think this conversation highlights perfectly how hard it is to actually predict bubbles. When I hear people justifying ideas like 1% interest on a 30 year bond it sounds strikingly similar to the justifications I was hearing back in 2005 of how housing prices were still a bargain at those insane ...

The premium is higher for Eagles due to supply and demand issues.  More Americans apparently desire the Eagles, either due to the look or that they are more familiar with them since they are produced by the US mint.   When you sell a coin you will get most of that premium back, so it doesn't matter ...

Basically the nominal rate of interest is made of the real rate and the expected rate of inflation.  So while bond holders can get fooled, rates could never stay below the inflation rate in perpetuity. Not in perpetuity but for a while. Govts can screw with the natural market price of things for a ...

doodle the following link explains a bit about real and nominal interest rates that might be useful. http://www.econlib.org/library/Enc/InterestRates.html Basically the nominal rate of interest is made of the real rate and the expected rate of inflation.  So while bond holders can get fooled, rates ...

It's not that I disagree with gold's price going up, it's just difficult for me to quantify where gold should be based on inflation, interest, solvency of central banks, etc. I tend to see the bond markets (despite the complete eff up on mortgage risk) as the most efficient.  Fixed rates of return ...

I buy some stocks of BVN (Compania de Minas Buenaventura), a peruvian companie that loss above 12% because Ollanta Humala won the presidential election. But I think there will be no real changes in economic policy in Peru. So I hope can be recovered in the short-term. I used to own it, and made qui...

The yield on treasuries couldn't stay lower than inflation for very long.  The situation you describe where LTT rates are that low is likely to be deflationary, so inflation would be negative or at least very low. Because no one would hold 30 year bonds at a rate below inflation - at least for very ...

I stand corrected...it's 30 stocks

http://www.jstor.org/pss/2330969

I think I previously calculated 15%.  I suppose it all depends on exactly which assets you are using to build the PP and maybe when you started it.  I think I used VTI, TLT, GDL, and SHY to come up the the 15% max intra-year drawdown.

Harry Brown advocated little seperation between one and one's assets.  Most here seem to agree that holding LTT's directly is the way to go for both cost and security (as well as duration control).  Cash is easy, and though gold gives many people trouble it really is easy to obtain and store leavin...