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- Tue Aug 09, 2011 7:43 pm
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Anyone Buying Platinum?
- Replies: 18
- Views: 10386
Re: Anyone Buying Platinum?
I can't speak to the speculative aspects of platinum, but I think the last five trading days has demonstrated quite effectively why gold is by far the best precious metal to have in the PP.
- Mon Aug 08, 2011 7:51 pm
- Forum: Stocks
- Topic: Yesterday's New Contribution Tanking Today
- Replies: 12
- Views: 8310
Re: Yesterday's New Contribution Tanking Today
My recommendation for you is to put all new contributions into cash. *All* contributions. If this contribution into cash triggers a rebalancing event, then perform it as scheduled. You stated you are overweight in cash, but not whether this new $15k would push you past the 35% rebalancing band. By ...
- Thu Aug 04, 2011 4:55 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Nauseous
- Replies: 44
- Views: 20274
Re: Nauseous
Here's the brighter side: we'll most likely see better equity valuations over the next 5 years (inflation adjusted). PE10 was as high as 24 recently. Today's shellacking took it down to 20.8. The median rests around 16 and secular bottoms have been around 10. We won't see prosperity again until...
- Thu Aug 04, 2011 4:28 pm
- Forum: Cash
- Topic: Cash ETF round up
- Replies: 5
- Views: 5658
Re: Cash ETF round up
Once you are up and running buying Tbills is pretty simple. You can buy a mix of Tbills (one-year, six-months, 30-days) to create your own preferred average maturity, and have them automatically reinvest if you wish. I can't speak for how easy or hard it is to sell them though. I think a blend o...
- Thu Aug 04, 2011 4:13 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Nauseous
- Replies: 44
- Views: 20274
Re: Nauseous
I admit, today is a terrible day, but the simulated PP I started on August 1st is still up 0.8%. I am not second guessing the PP, but rather questioning my timing in rebalancing the portfolio with new money. That is why I decided to just add to cash and rebalance once per year, or perhaps just wait...
- Thu Aug 04, 2011 4:04 pm
- Forum: Cash
- Topic: Fee for Cash
- Replies: 1
- Views: 2990
Fee for Cash
Saw this on Yahoo finance http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Dow-average-plunges-513-worst-apf-169769799.html;_ylt=Avq3xihLiZvznRTyxn1vKm.7YWsA;_ylu=X3oDMTE3MjM2cGN1BHBvcwMxBHNlYwNicmVha2luZ05ld3MEc2xrA3N0b2Nrc3NpbmthbQ--?x=0 Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist for Janney Montgomery Scott, an inve...
- Wed Aug 03, 2011 8:52 pm
- Forum: Cash
- Topic: Cash ETF round up
- Replies: 5
- Views: 5658
Re: Cash ETF round up
Thanks All I ended up mixing a few of them, including BIL and SHV, as I have an account at www.foliofn.com which has unlimited trades ($270 a year) and allows fractional share buying etc. I have never actually bought treasuries directly but sometimes the obvious answer is overlooked - thanks. Maybe...
- Wed Aug 03, 2011 8:44 pm
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Retiring a 60/40 portfolio
- Replies: 18
- Views: 10306
Re: Retiring a 60/40 portfolio
While anytime may be a good time to begin a PP, March of 2009 (for example) would not have been the ideal time to start one. But of course only with hindsight can you know this. A quick look at PRPFX shows that March of 2009 would have been a near perfect time to buy it. Why are you saying March o...
- Wed Aug 03, 2011 6:04 pm
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Retiring a 60/40 portfolio
- Replies: 18
- Views: 10306
Re: Retiring a 60/40 portfolio
If already in cash I would have no qualms whatsoever about starting a PP now. If, on the other hand, I was mostly in stocks I would be more hesitant. While I freely admit that I can't predict the future, I would feel much better if it were stocks that were up double-digits while moving into other ...
- Tue Aug 02, 2011 8:03 pm
- Forum: Cash
- Topic: Holding some foreign currencies?
- Replies: 33
- Views: 17272
Re: Holding some foreign currencies?
I say do it with money you can afford to lose -- so take money from the VP, if you have one, to invest in FX. I would not take it from the PP.
- Tue Aug 02, 2011 8:01 pm
- Forum: Other Discussions
- Topic: When Will QE3 Be Announced?
- Replies: 128
- Views: 37444
Re: When Will QE3 Be Announced?
Usually the next tool to stimulate the economy (whether you think that's a good thing or bad thing) is fiscal stimulus. Who thinks we'll see much more of that any time soon? That's a joke right? Didn't we already do all of this back in 1937? That was when Congress got it in their heads that what t...
- Mon Aug 01, 2011 7:02 pm
- Forum: Cash
- Topic: Cash ETF round up
- Replies: 5
- Views: 5658
Re: Cash ETF round up
Why not just buy T-bills from TreasuryDirect since outside the 401k?
- Fri Jul 29, 2011 11:34 pm
- Forum: Other Discussions
- Topic: When Will QE3 Be Announced?
- Replies: 128
- Views: 37444
Re: When Will QE3 Be Announced?
I will continue to stick by my prediction that it won't happen. Of course after today's abysmal GDP report, my prediction looks less certain, although I still think that the Fed will sit this one out.
But feel free to remind me how lousy my predictive abilities are if I'm proven wrong.
But feel free to remind me how lousy my predictive abilities are if I'm proven wrong.
- Thu Jul 28, 2011 9:04 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: since Fri Jul-22 Obama/Boehner beef, bond outperform stock!
- Replies: 19
- Views: 7237
Re: since Fri Jul-22 Obama/Boehner beef, bond outperform stock!
I admit I am very surprised to see the House passing TWO bills that everyone knew/knows were DOA. I'm surprised so much time would be wasted just posturing in this way. The new House Republicans also scare me a little. Some of them seem to think that cutting off your nose to spite your face makes ...
- Mon Jul 25, 2011 9:40 pm
- Forum: Cash
- Topic: New PPer needs advice
- Replies: 13
- Views: 10416
Re: New PPer needs advice
I looked at the Gabelli fund too, but I thought the expense ratio was higher than what was quoted earlier (.08%). Maybe that is a temporary expense ratio? At any rate I decided to just keep a combination of online savings, I and EE bonds, T-bills, and SHY. For the most simple route I'd just do SHY...
- Mon Jul 25, 2011 9:33 pm
- Forum: Stocks
- Topic: Why do you or don't you hold international stocks?
- Replies: 16
- Views: 11396
Re: Why do you or don't you hold international stocks?
Yes, but in the VP only.
- Sun Jul 17, 2011 4:14 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: A 5th Economic Condition?
- Replies: 256
- Views: 72053
Re: A 5th Economic Condition?
I think part of the confusion (to me at least) is that you can't have deflation without a recession, while inflation may or may not accompany a recession. I know many will disagree with this, but if I had to choose one, I'd say we are in prosperity. I realize it doesn't seem like it, but GDP is in ...
- Sun Jun 26, 2011 12:07 pm
- Forum: Gold
- Topic: Should I exchange ETFs for cold, hard gold?
- Replies: 8
- Views: 4808
Re: Should I exchange ETFs for cold, hard gold?
Depends on how much you have in the PP. Like MT, I think some in an ETF is desirable. But most should be the real deal.
- Sat Jun 25, 2011 2:33 pm
- Forum: Bonds
- Topic: US Default on Treasury Bonds
- Replies: 117
- Views: 39636
Re: US Default on Treasury Bonds
I understand the point you and jmourik are making, but I don't necessarily think that anyone knew what was going to happen. I was writing about the potential housing market "bubble" back in 2006, and there were a lot of people who had valid reasons for dismissing any concern. I would say...
- Sat Jun 25, 2011 1:07 am
- Forum: Bonds
- Topic: US Default on Treasury Bonds
- Replies: 117
- Views: 39636
Re: US Default on Treasury Bonds
A better analogy is the following. Let's assume you had bought a Toyota from a neighbor, and your neighbor agreed to seller financing. After you purchase the car the sticky pedal issue hits the news and your Camry loses 10% of it's value overnight. Would you now tell the neighbor to come take h...
- Fri Jun 24, 2011 6:29 pm
- Forum: Bonds
- Topic: US Default on Treasury Bonds
- Replies: 117
- Views: 39636
Re: US Default on Treasury Bonds
For unrepayable debts I would agree, but I do have a problem with someone who takes a 10% haircut on a new home and then decides they will just leave the keys in the mailbox and walkaway. There was never any promise made that housing always goes up in price, even if it was conventional wisdom, and...
- Fri Jun 24, 2011 5:57 am
- Forum: Bonds
- Topic: US Default on Treasury Bonds
- Replies: 117
- Views: 39636
Re: US Default on Treasury Bonds
Morally, I think walking away from your home is not only justified.....it should be encouraged. I don't think there is a moral dimension to the question of whether or not an unrepayable debt should nevertheless be paid on until it completely bankrupts you. I view this sort of thing as more a matter...
- Thu Jun 23, 2011 7:45 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Why Investors Should Fear The Permanent Portfolio
- Replies: 109
- Views: 48736
Re: Why Investors Should Fear The Permanent Portfolio
I think that Volcker raising rates in the face of a very weak economy is something we are unlikely to see again. People just don't do things like that anymore. If you look back at the totality of circumstances Volcker was operating within, I'm not even sure how much effect what he did actually had ...
- Wed Jun 22, 2011 6:26 pm
- Forum: Other Discussions
- Topic: Money and Politics
- Replies: 11
- Views: 3735
Re: Money and Politics
is it ok to discuss politics again? IMHO money and politics wouldn't be an issue at all if the government had never strayed so far from its original design. The recent experiments with campaign finance limits (McCain-Feingold) were in my opinion nothing more than a way to silence free speech, so I ...
- Tue Jun 21, 2011 8:41 pm
- Forum: Other Discussions
- Topic: Academic and Fed Research Articles
- Replies: 5
- Views: 3575
Re: Academic and Fed Research Articles
Ran across this article posted by an old professor friend on FB. It briefly reviews the differences between the Chicago and Austrian Schools. http://mises.org/daily/5390/The-Chicago-School-versus-the-Austrian-School#.TgAQmxO14_4;twitter I can see merit in the Austrian approach, but as I was "r...