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by Pkg Man
Tue Aug 09, 2011 7:43 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Anyone Buying Platinum?
Replies: 18
Views: 10386

Re: Anyone Buying Platinum?

I can't speak to the speculative aspects of platinum, but I think the last five trading days has demonstrated quite effectively why gold is by far the best precious metal to have in the PP. 
by Pkg Man
Mon Aug 08, 2011 7:51 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Yesterday's New Contribution Tanking Today
Replies: 12
Views: 8310

Re: Yesterday's New Contribution Tanking Today

My recommendation for you is to put all new contributions into cash. *All* contributions. If this contribution into cash triggers a rebalancing event, then perform it as scheduled. You stated you are overweight in cash, but not whether this new $15k would push you past the 35% rebalancing band. By ...
by Pkg Man
Thu Aug 04, 2011 4:55 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Nauseous
Replies: 44
Views: 20274

Re: Nauseous

Here's the brighter side: we'll most likely see better equity valuations over the next 5 years (inflation adjusted).  PE10 was as high as 24 recently.  Today's shellacking took it down to 20.8.  The median rests around 16 and secular bottoms have been around 10.  We won't see prosperity again until...
by Pkg Man
Thu Aug 04, 2011 4:28 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: Cash ETF round up
Replies: 5
Views: 5658

Re: Cash ETF round up

Once you are up and running buying Tbills is pretty simple.  You can buy a mix of Tbills (one-year, six-months, 30-days) to create your own preferred average maturity, and have them automatically reinvest if you wish.  I can't speak for how easy or hard it is to sell them though.  I think a blend o...
by Pkg Man
Thu Aug 04, 2011 4:13 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Nauseous
Replies: 44
Views: 20274

Re: Nauseous

I admit, today is a terrible day, but the simulated PP I started on August 1st is still up 0.8%. I am not second guessing the PP, but rather questioning my timing in rebalancing the portfolio with new money. That is why I decided to just add to cash and rebalance once per year, or perhaps just wait...
by Pkg Man
Thu Aug 04, 2011 4:04 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: Fee for Cash
Replies: 1
Views: 2990

Fee for Cash

Saw this on Yahoo finance http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Dow-average-plunges-513-worst-apf-169769799.html;_ylt=Avq3xihLiZvznRTyxn1vKm.7YWsA;_ylu=X3oDMTE3MjM2cGN1BHBvcwMxBHNlYwNicmVha2luZ05ld3MEc2xrA3N0b2Nrc3NpbmthbQ--?x=0 Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist for Janney Montgomery Scott, an inve...
by Pkg Man
Wed Aug 03, 2011 8:52 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: Cash ETF round up
Replies: 5
Views: 5658

Re: Cash ETF round up

Thanks All I ended up mixing a few of them, including BIL and SHV, as I have an account at www.foliofn.com which has unlimited trades ($270 a year) and allows fractional share buying etc. I have never actually bought treasuries directly but sometimes the obvious answer is overlooked - thanks. Maybe...
by Pkg Man
Wed Aug 03, 2011 8:44 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Retiring a 60/40 portfolio
Replies: 18
Views: 10306

Re: Retiring a 60/40 portfolio

While anytime may be a good time to begin a PP, March of 2009 (for example) would not have been the ideal time to start one.  But of course only with hindsight can you know this. A quick look at PRPFX shows that March of 2009 would have been a near perfect time to buy it. Why are you saying March o...
by Pkg Man
Wed Aug 03, 2011 6:04 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Retiring a 60/40 portfolio
Replies: 18
Views: 10306

Re: Retiring a 60/40 portfolio

If already in cash I would have no qualms whatsoever about starting a PP now.  If, on the other hand, I was mostly in stocks I would be more hesitant.  While I freely admit that I can't predict the future, I would feel much better if it were stocks that were up double-digits while moving into other ...
by Pkg Man
Tue Aug 02, 2011 8:03 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: Holding some foreign currencies?
Replies: 33
Views: 17272

Re: Holding some foreign currencies?

I say do it with money you can afford to lose -- so take money from the VP, if you have one, to invest in FX.  I would not take it from the PP.
by Pkg Man
Tue Aug 02, 2011 8:01 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: When Will QE3 Be Announced?
Replies: 128
Views: 37444

Re: When Will QE3 Be Announced?

Usually the next tool to stimulate the economy (whether you think that's a good thing or bad thing) is fiscal stimulus. Who thinks we'll see much more of that any time soon? That's a joke right? Didn't we already do all of this back in 1937?  That was when Congress got it in their heads that what t...
by Pkg Man
Mon Aug 01, 2011 7:02 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: Cash ETF round up
Replies: 5
Views: 5658

Re: Cash ETF round up

Why not just buy T-bills from TreasuryDirect since outside the 401k?
by Pkg Man
Fri Jul 29, 2011 11:34 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: When Will QE3 Be Announced?
Replies: 128
Views: 37444

Re: When Will QE3 Be Announced?

I will continue to stick by my prediction that it won't happen.  Of course after today's abysmal GDP report, my prediction looks less certain, although I still think that the Fed will sit this one out.

But feel free to remind me how lousy my predictive abilities are if I'm proven wrong.
by Pkg Man
Thu Jul 28, 2011 9:04 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: since Fri Jul-22 Obama/Boehner beef, bond outperform stock!
Replies: 19
Views: 7237

Re: since Fri Jul-22 Obama/Boehner beef, bond outperform stock!

I admit I am very surprised to see the House passing TWO bills that everyone knew/knows were DOA. I'm surprised so much time would be wasted just posturing in this way. The new House Republicans also scare me a little.  Some of them seem to think that cutting off your nose to spite your face makes ...
by Pkg Man
Mon Jul 25, 2011 9:40 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: New PPer needs advice
Replies: 13
Views: 10416

Re: New PPer needs advice

I looked at the Gabelli fund too, but I thought the expense ratio was higher than what was quoted earlier (.08%).  Maybe that is a temporary expense ratio? At any rate I decided to just keep a combination of online savings, I and EE bonds, T-bills, and SHY.  For the most simple route I'd just do SHY...
by Pkg Man
Mon Jul 25, 2011 9:33 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Why do you or don't you hold international stocks?
Replies: 16
Views: 11396

Re: Why do you or don't you hold international stocks?

Yes, but in the VP only.
by Pkg Man
Sun Jul 17, 2011 4:14 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: A 5th Economic Condition?
Replies: 256
Views: 72053

Re: A 5th Economic Condition?

I think part of the confusion (to me at least) is that you can't have deflation without a recession, while inflation may or may not accompany a recession. I know many will disagree with this, but if I had to choose one, I'd say we are in prosperity.  I realize it doesn't seem like it, but GDP is in ...
by Pkg Man
Sun Jun 26, 2011 12:07 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Should I exchange ETFs for cold, hard gold?
Replies: 8
Views: 4808

Re: Should I exchange ETFs for cold, hard gold?

Depends on how much you have in the PP. Like MT, I think some in an ETF is desirable. But most should be the real deal.
by Pkg Man
Sat Jun 25, 2011 2:33 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: US Default on Treasury Bonds
Replies: 117
Views: 39636

Re: US Default on Treasury Bonds

I understand the point you and jmourik are making, but I don't necessarily think that anyone knew what was going to happen.  I was writing about the potential housing market "bubble" back in 2006, and there were a lot of people who had valid reasons for dismissing any concern. I would say...
by Pkg Man
Sat Jun 25, 2011 1:07 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: US Default on Treasury Bonds
Replies: 117
Views: 39636

Re: US Default on Treasury Bonds

A better analogy is the following.  Let's assume you had bought a Toyota from a neighbor, and your neighbor agreed to seller financing.   After you purchase the car the sticky pedal issue hits the news and your Camry loses 10% of it's value overnight.  Would you now tell the neighbor to come take h...
by Pkg Man
Fri Jun 24, 2011 6:29 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: US Default on Treasury Bonds
Replies: 117
Views: 39636

Re: US Default on Treasury Bonds

For unrepayable debts I would agree, but I do have a problem with someone who takes a 10% haircut on a new home and then decides they will just leave the keys in the mailbox and walkaway.  There was never any promise made that housing always goes up in price, even if it was conventional wisdom, and...
by Pkg Man
Fri Jun 24, 2011 5:57 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: US Default on Treasury Bonds
Replies: 117
Views: 39636

Re: US Default on Treasury Bonds

Morally, I think walking away from your home is not only justified.....it should be encouraged. I don't think there is a moral dimension to the question of whether or not an unrepayable debt should nevertheless be paid on until it completely bankrupts you. I view this sort of thing as more a matter...
by Pkg Man
Thu Jun 23, 2011 7:45 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Why Investors Should Fear The Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 109
Views: 48736

Re: Why Investors Should Fear The Permanent Portfolio

I think that Volcker raising rates in the face of a very weak economy is something we are unlikely to see again. People just don't do things like that anymore. If you look back at the totality of circumstances Volcker was operating within, I'm not even sure how much effect what he did actually had ...
by Pkg Man
Wed Jun 22, 2011 6:26 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Money and Politics
Replies: 11
Views: 3735

Re: Money and Politics

is it ok to discuss politics again? IMHO money and politics wouldn't be an issue at all if the government had never strayed so far from its original design.  The recent experiments with campaign finance limits (McCain-Feingold) were in my opinion nothing more than a way to silence free speech, so I ...
by Pkg Man
Tue Jun 21, 2011 8:41 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Academic and Fed Research Articles
Replies: 5
Views: 3575

Re: Academic and Fed Research Articles

Ran across this article posted by an old professor friend on FB.  It briefly reviews the differences between the Chicago and Austrian Schools. http://mises.org/daily/5390/The-Chicago-School-versus-the-Austrian-School#.TgAQmxO14_4;twitter I can see merit in the Austrian approach, but as I was "r...