These are results from my real 4x25 portfolio of Euro shares with Euro and EM share ETFs, bond ETFs, gold ETFs and cash. Not very different from the US Vanilla PP figures of -2.24, +10.10, -2.99 and +5.9% for the same four years. 2013 -3.04% 2014 +12.39% 2015 +1.42% 2016 +7.08 Average 4.30% 2017 +2....

No such luck here in Europe. My Euro PP is +0.55% for 2017, not helped by the Euro's strength at $1.19.

Same or worse in Europe. In mid-June my Euro PP was +2.2% since 1 Jan, now -0.6%. Not helped by the Euro's recent strength relative to the dollar (+3% in the last month). I suppose I should be buying, but I topped up gold and bonds back in June of course. The fortunes of war.

Europeanwizard: So what do you use for the bonds part? For long bonds, the ETF MTH (Lyxor 25+ years, mostly French, German and Italian bonds). For medium bonds, C73 (Amundi 7-10 year bond ETF, French, German, Italian and Spanish bonds mostly) I do have severe doubts when Craig says that he wouldn't ...

For comparison, my own Euro PP results over the last four years: 2013 : -3.04% 2014 : +12.39% 2015 : +1.42% 2016 : + 7.08% Four-year CAGR 4.30% 2017 so far: +2.1% Prety similar to the 2013-2016 US figures: -2.24%, +10.10%, -2.99%, +5.90% (from Bogleheads blog https://finpage.blog/2017/01/12/harry-br...

It seems to me that a Europe-resident investor should invest primarily in Euros to avoid exchange-rate risk. A Euro resident investing in substantially in dollars is taking a bet on the direction of the exchange rate. If the Euro were abandoned for political reasons, it would be replaced by other cu...

Europeanwizard You might find the information in the following thread useful: https://www.gyroscopicinvesting.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=2858 See also jusetf.com for comparison tables of Euro ETFs for European investors: http://www.justetf.com/en/find-etf.html?query=msci++europe for example. ...

On the subject of keeping cash in the portfolio: one of the arguments for cash is to provide a spending reserve, so that in the event of a long bear market you will not have to sell any investments at a loss. You can live off your cash reserve and wait for better times. If you are willing to do that...

If you need life insurance you should not be removing money and if you don't need it then you should not have insurance. ... Using your life insurance as cash is like using social security as a proxy for bonds . I am retired but our spending cash has nothing to do with what we hold as cash in our p...

I ended up believing my own propaganda (earlier in this thread), and added more of my VP cash and Euro high-yield stocks to the PP in December 2016. My portfolio is now PP 75%, VP 25% of total investments. As my bond allocation was already low, I had to buy some bonds (without enthusiasm, given the ...

tarentola, You asked for opinions, here are mine. I've been in my PP since 2009. I have not rebalanced because of the taxable gains I have, and I am still within 15-35 percent bands. 1. I am glad you realized you are not good at speculating. I realized the same thing probably about 10 years ago. 2....

Dumb question : how do you get an ITT performance with discrete treasury bonds and not a treasury fund ? i.e. Do you buy 10, 7 or 5 year treasuries and hold them to they mature or sell them earlier at a defined time ? Thanks. I have never done this, but for LTTs Harry Browne suggested buying 30-yea...

Interest rates are probably going to rise soon, or at least stop falling. How long have we been hearing that? It sounds like your crystal ball is a lot clearer than mine. Could you please give us a date fixed? Have you seen where long-bond yields are at in other countries? Is there some reason that...

Thank you for the welcome, Sophie. On withdrawal rates: "it is reasonable to expect a Permanent Portfolio to earn, over a period of years, an average yearly return of at least 5% above the inflation rate", Harry Browne wrote in Why the Best-Laid Investment Plans Usually Go Wrong . In a foo...

I did a backtest comparison of the PP, comparing it to a portfolio where ITTs replace LTTs. Results from Portfolio Visualizer. In a backtest period 1981-2016 , a (standard) PP with 25% long-term treasuries beats a PP with 25% intermediate-term treasuries. CAGRs: with 25% LTTs: 7.41% with 25% ITTs: 6...

Thanks for checking in, Alanw. We don't hear much from the satisfied PP users! How did you decided on adding the 20-30% VWINX? Just looking for a bit more income overall? Yes it would be great to hear from other satisfied (or even unsatisfied) users, particularly those who have an long-established ...

You miss a lot of the picture if you look at returns over that time period. Look at individual years where the PP would have sustained outsized losses without the LTT exposure. It's difficult to stick to the plan if one is concerned with volatility on an annual basis. Another thing that usually get...

I personally would not rebalance if the transaction resulted in any taxes. Some investors have tighter rebalance bands and others don't rebalance at all. Thanks budd. I will probably avoid taxes by not selling anything as you suggest, and try to pluck up the courage to buy bonds with remaining cash...

Because of having moved to Euroland for work, I have accumulated share accounts in sterling and in Euros. I have a Euro PP and a speculative sterling VP, as well as a high-yield portfolio of US, UK and Euro shares. The HY port does all right, mainly because I don't trade in it. I would like to event...

barrett Thanks for the info. Peaktotrough offers different rebalancing options, which may explain the difference from Portfolio Visualizer. Yes, the long bond added 0.5% more CAGR to the portfolio since 2000. But for the 25 previous years, the CAGRs of portfolios with 30y PP and 10y PP were virtuall...

dualstow Yes, the European long bonds also performed well recently as in the US. My Euro long bond ETF (MTF.PA from Lyxor) is still showing a 25% profit despite being 12% off its recent high. In Europe we don't have the same range of analytical tools for Euro ETFs and funds, so all my backtests refe...

This is the common "bullet vs. barbell" debate. Both seem to work OK if you are just looking at CAGR, but I believe that the cash portion of the barbell offers certain advantages. For example, if you include all your assets in your PP and you have a cash position of 25% (or whatever), tha...

Long bonds in the PP worked very well in recent years in countering market dips. I am still reluctant to add to my long bonds at the moment because of the risk of rising rates. I did a comparison of two PPs in Portfolio Visualizer, a conventional PP with long bonds and another with intermediate bond...

I have a dilemma a bit like duchtraffic's earlier on in the thread. I am in Euroland and have a Euro PP and a VP, as well as a high-yield portfolio. Now that I am retired, I have finally accepted that I am not good at speculation. I want to abandon the VP and include its contents in the PP where pos...

From the PP, withdrawing is straightforward: the cash reserve is built in. The subject of withdrawals from the PP has been discussed several times in this forum, notably in a thread that is unfortunately in the "Other Discussions" section: http://gyroscopicinvesting.com/forum/other-discuss...