Do those results include your personal port which includes 5% XIV? Does this not mitigate some of the issues you described such as lowering portfolio level volatility?

Please continue Kbg! I actually do follow this thread and am very interested in how your personal portfolio (with XIV) performs vs. the straight 2x leveraged PP.

Thank you again for your posts in this thread and on this forum. I've learned a lot by reading them.

Lonestar wrote:Or, start purchasing a 5yr maturity treasuries each year for 5 consecutive years.

@Lonestar: This statement is correct.

Kbg wrote: Finally, a little nuance on public debt you never see

https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2017/02 ... n=fredblog

@KBG: That article was very interesting

Ah thank you, I realized that maturity affects duration but I forgot the yield.
Is it true that we always want the highest duration bond (i.e. lowest yield for the longest maturity)? And is this also true in retirement accounts?

sophie wrote:For bonds, buy the lowest interest-rate option you can find, e.g. pick a 2.5% bond over a 3.25%.

Sophie, can you please explain this statement in a bit more detail? I am not sure I understand why one would rather have a 2.5% bond over 3.25%.

i didn't refer to the pp as a doomsday portfolio . i was referring to mitigating short term temporary dips having no logic for a long term investor with a long term perspective . heavy betting against each other is for mitigating things in the short term as long term these dips have no meaning . Ac...

Here is his take on gold and a rebuttal to Buffet's idea that "gold does nothing."

http://alephblog.com/2012/04/06/gold-does-nothing/

the zero capital gains bracket is a gift from the tax gods . unfortunately i learned what i needed to had i done roths i would have been in better shape . there is so much linked to your magi in retirement that roths can be so much better even if tax rates were a bit higher Can you elaborate on thi...

Woohoo!

dualstow wrote:

ochotona wrote:Meb also points out that rebalancing bands are a form of trend-following.

Not really.

Aren't rebalancing bands technically a form of mean-reversion/volatility harvesting? That's the opposite of trend-following.

My understanding is that the mouse is supposed to get something crazy like 9 hours worth of charge in < 2 minutes. That's less than a coffee/bathroom break.

Why buy 25yr bonds? Just buy 30. No laddering needed for the Bond portion of the PP.

You can consider laddering your Cash portion.

My understanding is that in a flat market, XIV will do very well. But in a situation where stocks are dropping, won't holding XIV magnify your losses?

kbg, does your personal mix still include XIV? If so, can you describe how much what this is supposed to add to the leveraged PP?
I'm sure you've already explained this but I am having a hard time finding the post in this thread...

Hasn't kbg already shown that for trending non/inversely correlated assets, the decay actually works in your favor? I'd be most worried when all PP assets are in a sideways market.

Let me try another way of explaining my point: ... If you reworked your excellent website such that all backtesting results started in 1975, the results of *comparisons* of various portfolios would change dramatically. ... Tyler has a graph that actually tracks Start Date Sensitivity https://portfo...

Answers to many of these questions used to be listed in the full Cash FAQ on crawlingroad.com, but it seems like all of that material has been removed. The best way to get get the details on the Permanent Portfolio is probably by reading Craig and MediumTex's book. https://www.amazon.com/Permanent-P...

This message states that Fidelity does add a markup to bonds purchased on the secondary market. I assume this is placed on the Bid/Ask price listed.

https://www.fidelity.com/about-fidelity ... -investors

I was once told by a forum member named Joe that commissions aren't the only type of charge. Brokerages can also apply a markup on treasury transactions. I am also with Fidelity and am not exactly sure if they apply markups to treasuries on the secondary market. For that reason, it may be slightly b...

jafs wrote: I still don't buy it, though, even conceptually.  Banks have to have more money coming in than going out, since they're in business to make money, not to lose it or just break even.

You should read this: http://www.relfe.com/wp/money/want-earth-plus-5/

Thanks, Jake! Just grabbed a copy and am enjoying it so far!

Eh? Google Finance shows +6.19% YTD
https://www.google.com/finance?q=MUTF%3 ... 2AaAg5HwBQ

Not sure why Google Search shows -6.58%.

I don't really understand the fuss... Those charts make it look like the Japanese and Swedish PP are GREAT investments!

MangoMan wrote: Btw, why does your post count show '2'? At one point you had around 30 posts IIRC.

It looks like a bunch of his posts were deleted. Not sure why.